Royal Ascot Day 1 Thoughts

Queen Anne

2:30

There’s only one winner of this FRANKEL! He’s won 10 from 10 and beaten most of these previously. Is he value at 1.20? Probably, as he should be nearer 1.14 max. Will I back him? Likely, I’ll see how I feel on the day.

Another option in the race may be to look at Excelebration, he’s finished 2^nd to Frankel 3 times and 3^rd once. He’s won 6 from his other 7 races, the exception being when he finished 4^th on racecourse debut at Nottingham back in May 2010. He interests me in the To Be Placed market on Betfair at 1.5x. The reason for this is it’s paying 3 places (Effectively 2 as Frankel will take one) and the only danger to him finishing 2^nd will be Strong Suit. So if Frankel and Strong Suit come 1^st and 2^nd he surely must come 3^rd. Worthadd is a front runner who was poor at Epsom and won’t get things his own way in this with Bullet Train and Windsor Palace also looking to set the pace. The rest are Handicappers at best when compared to the head of the market.

Kings Stand

3:05                    

BATED BREATH is a horse that frustrated me in the second half of last season, when he moved up to Group Company. He final got that elusive first Group success last time out over 5f at Haydock. That was on Firm ground and he hasn’t got the best form in the book when it comes to a bit of cut in the ground. However the weather’s improving, with the exception of some showers predicted for tomorrow morning, and Ascot’s a fast drying track. If follow the ground isn’t too soft I’ll be backing him to follow up that success.

There are a few dangers in this 23 runner field so I’ll be wanting around 6.50+. He has the beating of the home challengers but there are some very interesting an classy imports. These include Wizz Kid, 2^nd to Deacon Blues on Champions Day last year. Another one I like is Little Bridge, on official ratings he should go close. Add into that Aussie raider Ortensia it looks a very competitive race, but the rewards for getting it right are worth getting involved.

St. James’s Palace

3:45

POWER is a horse I always back. Apart from his shocker at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas he has been solid, never coming out of the top two (never being beaten by more than ½ a length in those). He put the Newmarket horror show behind him at the Curragh next time out winning nicely with a late surge.

He won at the Royal meeting last year and has beaten what I see as his main challenger, Born To Sea, last time out. Gabrial is an interesting entry due to it being supplemented but he has Jamie ‘Hold It Up Too Long’ Spencer on top. He also finished 17 ½ lengths behind Power at Ascot last year, although he has improved and has the ability to make the frame I cannot see him getting up to Power.

For those reason I will be a backer at anything over 3.50.