The Championship - 1st January 2013

We had a good day on Saturday with 3 from 4 singles coming in and increasing the main bank to +128.75%, which means December ended in profit and we are way ahead of the target to beat the banks. That was a good way to end the year and I feel the 1st half of the season has gone well.

We are now going into 2013 and my intention is grow continue to grow the bank but also improve the quality of my work as I've been too fearful of placing certain bets and 'argued' with myself over 0.02 difference in a price.

I am also hoping to a some new features to the site so that we have a broader range of activities going on, but for now we have a full set of  New Years Day fixtures to get through.

Warford v Charlton Athletic

The current 6 game form table sees Charlton bottom with 0 win, 3 draws and 3 defeats. Watford are sitting in 3rd place with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their one defeat came against Hull, who sit top of the form table. Watford are also 10 points and 12 places above Charlton in the league, with a game in hand.

Charlton do have a decent away record but are currently on a downward trajectory, whilst Watfords home form isn't spectacular with the 4 defeats they are defiantly a team on the up. They are starting to score goals with Troy Deeney and Matej Vydra really starting to look like a menacing partnership. Charlton aren't a big scoring side especially when they have only scored 13 goals in their 12 away games. To Charlton's credit they have only conceeded 13 in those matches, however they haven't faced a current top six side away from The Valley so far this season. I fully expect Watford to score at least 1 goal and have them down in my book to get a minimum of 2, I cannot see Charlton scoring 1 let alone 2 so this game has to go down as a home win.

If this game was played in 2 weeks time I would expect Watford to be around the 1.80 mark. They are currently being given a 51.28% chance of winning this match. I would personally give them a chance of at least 55% which would price them around 1.80.

Back Watford at 1.95 -William Hill


Crystal Palace v Wolves

I accept that Crystal Palace are on a bad run of form however Wolves form isn't great either. Wolves have won 3 and lost 3 of their last six but those 3 win are their only wins in their last 15 games. Although Palace haven't been winning they have still only lost 2 of their last 22 games. They also sit 13 places and 13 places above Wolves in the league table. It is also worth remembering that Palace have an excellent home record, they have only lost 8 of their last 50 home league games.

After the Huddersfield game I said to some friends of mine that it's not worth backing Palace at home unless they were around the even money mark as the bookies were cottoning on to them. It is worth remembering that although Palace haven't won in their last 5 games they have taken the lead in all of them and the only defeat was away to league leaders Cardiff.

If Palace had held on for another minute at Forest on Saturday and taken the 3 points they would have been priced at 1.8x for this game. I give Palace a percentage chance of around 55% (1.80) based on previous form and where these two clubs currently are. Palace's only home defeat this season came on the opening weekend when they conceded 2 goals in the last 2 minutes against Watford. Since then they have won 7 and drawn 4 which in my book means they should be odds-on for most matches at Selhurst Park.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.02 - Betfair


Sheffield Wednesday v Burnley

I backed Burnley to get a result on Saturday against Leicester, by laying Leicester at 2.38. However once Charlie Austin went off injured after 8 minutes it was clear that 1 goal from Leicester would probably be enough to win the game.

Their top scorers list this season shows the depth of the problem they'll have without Charlie Austin.

They now come up against a seemingly rejuvenated Sheffield Wednesday side who although languish 21st in the league table are 6th in the six game form table. They are currently unbeaten in 4 (3wins, 1 draw) and haven't conceded in that time.

It would seem then this is a good time for them to be playing a Burnley side who's top scorer is a doubt for the game due to injury.

Burnley have 1 win in their last 7 and have only kept 1 clean sheet in that time (against a Derby side who struggle away).

I feel that with the current for of these two sides and with Charlie Austin out their is defiantly not too much between these sides and would have Sheffield Wednesday at the 2.30 mark. I feel it is worth taking a chance on Sheffield Wednesday to continue their run and back them here.

Back Sheffield Wednesday at 2.50 - Boylesports


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Troy Deeney (Watford v Charlton)
As stated earlier Watford are starting to score goals and it Deeney and Vydra who are scoring them. I've gone for Deeney in this as he is usually the penalty taker.

Dwight Gayle (Peterborough v Barnsley)
Peterborough are usually always good for goals and although not as prolific as they were in League One they have Dwight Gayle. He has played 8 games for Peterborough and scored 7 goals so at 2.40 offers value against bottom of the table Barnsley who have conceded an average of 1.83 goals per game on the road this season.

Billy Sharp (Blackburn v Nottingham Forest)
I was impressed by Nottingham Forest on Saturday they continued to play decent football even after the managerial changes. Billy Sharp is their top scorer this season and he is proven at this level, I feel he can score against a Blackburn side who I just don't rate at the moment.

The treble pays just under 16/1 with Bet365


#ToiletRollAcca

 It would be nice if we could start the new year with this one coming in pays a healthy 116,000/1 with BetVictor.

The Championship - 29th December 2012

I've been getting way to many draws recently with 4 of my last 9 ending that way, although at the prices I'm backing at runs like that a expected. The main bank is still up by 97.12% so I'm beating my target of beating the banks.

The chart (left) shows the ups and downs of the main bank so far this season in % terms.

We are currently on a down slope due to these draws but I'm expecting this to turn around this weekend as results start to go our way.

I'm hoping to be back up over the 120% mark after the conclusion of the New Years Day fixtures.


Bristol City v Peterborough

Peterborough have won their last 3 games but previous to that they had not won in 8 (7 defeats and a draw).  Looking at it long term I still have Peterborough down as the worst team in the league. A lot of their recent turn around has been down to the goals of Dwight Gayle and teams under-estimating them.

Another negative against Peterborough is the loss of George Thorne who has been recalled to West Brom. I don't see that much difference between these sides so I cannot understand why Peterborough are being made effective favourites. With a game like this I would price it as H2.25 D3.50 A3.75.

If it wasn't for Bristol City being a poor side as well I would back them outright, however I feel it's more sensible to take some caution with this game due to the unpredictable nature of both these sides. I cannot see Peterborough winning 4 games in a row but they could sneak a draw.

Lay Peterborough at 3.05 - Betfair


Burnley v Leicester

Again we have Leicester taking their poor away record on the road again (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats). They are constantly under-priced away from home and I don't understand the way this game is priced. Burnley haven't really been in the best form with too many draws, but they have only lost 1 of the last 7. Leicester by contrast haven't won in 4 and their 6 game record reads LWDLLD. They have also failed to score in 4 of those games. When you coming up against the leagues top goal-scorer you get the feeling you'll need to score at least 2 to win.

For that reason above I cannot be giving Leicester a  42% (2.38) chance of winning this and would give them a chance of around the 33% (3.00) mark.

Lay Leicester at 2.38 - Betfair


Middlesbrough v Blackpool

Looking at the six game form table Middlesbrough sit above Blackpool, they are also 8 places and 11 point better off in the overall league table.

Those stats would suggest that Middlesbrough are the better side however the price would have them at around Blackpool's equals. 

Middlesbrough's home record reads W9, D1, L2, that's far superior to Blackpool's away record of W4, D4, L4. Even if you do rate these sides as equal the prices should be H2.25, D3.50, A3.75. I however believe that Middelsbrough are the better side and have it priced at H2.15, D3.55, A4.00.

Back Middlesbrough at 2.30 - BetVictor

Brighton v Watford

Watford are 6th in the six game form table with Brighton sitting in 17th. Watford are 4 places and 3 points above Brighton in the league. However Brighton are again again priced up like they are far superior to the other sides in this league. Of Brighton's 12 home games this season they have won 4, drawn 6 and lost 2. That's a 33% strike rate and means they shouldn't be near even money to win at home.

Watford's away record reads W5, D2, L4. That would suggest that teams should be not be priced lower than 2.20 when Watford visit. Brighton have also only won 3 of their last 16 games, they're hardly in the form where you'd want to be backing them at near even money. Brighton should be around 2.25 for this game so at the prices on offer have to be taken on, especially as they have the joint highest Failed to Score statistic in the league with 8.

Lay Brighton at 2.08 - Betfair

The Championship - 26th December 2012

We're half-way there! 23 games down and the main bank has increased by 119.02%. I'll take that as the 1st aim of the season is to beat the banks rates. Hopefully we can kick on over the next 23 rounds of fixtures and make this a very memorable season.

I had a list of 4 games for Boxing Day however the odds have gone against me so I'm down to the one single, but it's a very tasty price.

Hull v Leicester

I remember laying Leicester when Hull visited The King Power stadium back in September. Unfortunately Leicester won that match, however as the season has progressed I'm happy to say that was the right bet to have then, despite the result.

We now have the return fixture and Hull seem massively overpriced. They have won their last 4 matches and should have beaten Palace in the match before that, ended 0-0 but they dominated the match. They currently sit 3rd in the 6 game form table, Leicester are 13th. The league table has Hull in 2nd, 7 points clear of 5th placed Leicester.

The above would suggest that these sides are of at least equal ability and with Hull's home record being superior to Leicester poor away record, I would give Hull a chance of around 44% (2.27) of winning this game.

Back Hull at 2.76 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

This bet is based on how poorly I rate the oppositions defences, as my usual list of scorers all have tough games.

Sylvan Ebanks-Blake (Wolves  v Peterborough)
Lukas Jutkiewicz (Middlesbrough v Blackburn)
Troy Deeney (Bristol City v Watford)

The Treble pays 14.16 with Boylesports and SkyBet


#ToiletRollAcca

Gutted that the Brighton v Millwall match was moved as I had that down as a draw. It really makes a difference to this bet it's down around 70,000/1 from 230,000/1.

Let's pay for our Christmas expenses with this on 70,000/1+ with BetVictor

The Championship - 22nd December 2012

Last weekend we got 3 from 4, after posting two late bets on Twitter, and if it wasn't for David Ngog coming of the bench it would have been all 4. However the main bank went up from +104.50% to +145.66%. I'm hoping for more of the same this weekend to take us into the 2nd half of the season in a very healthy position.

Birmingham City v Burnley

Birmingham have 1 win in their last 7 games, but sit next to Burnley in the 6 game form table.

I am however taking a long term view with this bet. I have been impressed by the way Birmingham have fought back in their previous two home games against Middlesbrough (won 3-2) and Crystal Palace (drew 2-2). I don't see much difference between these two sides and without the goals of Charlie Austin, Burnley could well be in a relegation battle. I expect Birmingham to finish above Burnley in May so I'm surprised to see that they've been given a 40% chance in this match. I would give them a chance of around the 45% mark (2.22).

Back Birmingham City at 2.50 - Betfair

Leicester City v Cardiff City

The league leaders travel to 5th placed Leicester City. Despite Cardiff's defeat at home to Peterborough last week they still top the 6 game form table. They have also been improving on the road recently, even though I don't currently rate Blackburn any 4-1 victory away from home has to be respected.

Leicester have a great record at home this season, (8 wins, 2 draw, 1 defeat) but at the prices they have to be taken on. The odds suggest they have 50% (2.00) chance of winning this. I see these sides of equal about ability so would therefore give Leicester a 45% (2.22) chance.

Lay Leicester City at 2.0x - Betfair

Crystal Palace v Huddersfield

Crystal Palace have only lost 8 of their last 49 home league games. That stat in itself suggests Palace should be odds-on here. Getting the correct price is the challenge and I think the best way to work that out for this weekend is to look at Huddersfields last fixture. Hull were priced up at 1.80 and won 2-0. Palace are no worse that Hull and the league table suggests they are better.

Huddersfield started the season well but their form has dropped off now, they haven't won in their last 6 games and have slipped to 17th in the table and sit bottom of the 6 game form table. Palace have lost 1 of their last 19 games and sit 2nd in the league.

The odds suggest they have around a 56% chance of winning this and I think their is a bit of value in that, based on the Hull odds from last week and Palace's home record.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.80 - Betfair

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Huddersfield)

He's scoring an average of more that a goal a game this season so it makes sense to stick with him again this week.

DJ Campbell (Ipswich v Bristol City)

Bristol City have conceded 45 goals this season and while Ipswich struggle to score I think they will in this match and if they do DJ Campbell is the most likely to get it. 

Marlon King (Birmingham v Burnley)

Marlon King is class at this level and with 13 goals this season I feel he is worth following this week.

The treble pays 8.56 with Bet365

The Championship - 15th December 2012

I had a great blog prepared for last weekend but couldn't post it due to Indian internet connections not being great. Unfortunately for the bet though Crystal Palace conceded an 89th minute equaliser from a mistake. However at the prices I've been backing Palace at this season, they only need to win less than 50% of the time. They're still my most profitable side with 8 wins from the 11 matches I've got involved in.

Hopefully some of you got involved in the cricket as bets advised on Twitter for England to win, Cook runs and England runs.

The main bank for the season currently sits at +104.50% and I'm hoping that we can add to it this weekend, just in time for Christmas.

Millwall v Leicester City

Millwall's 13 match unbeaten run came to an end at Ipswich last weekend, however they still sit 3rd in the current 6 game form table. They face a Leicester side who will certainly be challenging for automatic promotion come April.

My reason for wanting to take Leicester on in this match is due to their away record compared to that of Millwall at home. Leicester have won 3 away this season;

1. Middlesbrough - 89th minute winner
2. Huddersfield - deserved win 
3. Sheffield Wed - deserved win

The two deserved victories have come against newly promoted sides, the form of the victory at Huddersfield looked good at the time but looking at it now Huddersfield have only won 4 of their last 14. You can't take much from the win at Sheffield Wednesday, they've lost 7 in a row and only won 2 of their last 18.

Millwall have been relatively strong at home; their 3 defeats came in the early part of the season when they were struggling for form. Their defeats came against  Blackpool, Cardiff and Brighton. Those sides would all feel they had a good chance of promotion this season and played Millwall whilst in good form.

From a long term point of view Leicester deserve to be favourites, but I wouldn't give them a 42% chance of winning this match. I would give them a maximum chance of 37% (2.78) and therefore they have to be laid at 2.4x.

Lay Leicester at 2.4x - Betfair


Leeds United v Ipswich Town

Ipswich matches have cost us a few pounds recently but I'm going to get involved again. I still remember when they came to Palace and got beaten 5-0, they've also gone to Leicester and Blackpool and came away with 6-0 defeats.

The odds have these sides priced as though they are of equal ability and if this was the Leeds of 1 month ago I would have agreed. Since they got the promise of new investment they seem to have been transformed. The signing of Jerome Thomas has really improved their side. He missed the defeat at Derby but not many sides will go to Pride Park this year and get a result.

I don't think that there is too much between these two sides but Leeds are higher in my ratings. I would give Leeds a 48% (2.08) chance and therefore have to back them today at the prices.

Back Leeds United at 2.20 - William Hill


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray
I think Palace have a tough game at Birmingham today but if they do score it is very likely that it will be the man who has the best goals to games ration in the country at the moment.

Tom Ince
I was going to have Blackpool as a single, basically because I don't rate Blackburn anymore and see Berg as the wrong managerial choice. I expect Blackpool to score a couple today so it makes sense to go with their 13 goal top-scorer to get one.

Luciano Becchio
14 goals this season and coming up against the team with the worst goal difference and second worst goals against.

The Treble pays just over 11/1 with Betfred


#ToiletRollAcca

This would be the perfect weekend to get this in, especially as it pays over 230,000/1 with BetVictor

The Championship - 1st December 2012

Last week wasn't the greatest to say the least but the main bank is still up by 101.98%. From the 37 bets advised we've had 22 winners, that's a 59.45% strike rate.

Looking through this weekends list I can't see an away win but there are some decent prices around for some home wins.

Watford v Barnsley

At the start of the season I had Barnsley down as one of my relegation bets, they currently sit in 20th and are 5 points behind 19th with a 2 point advantage over the teams in the relegation zone. I think it's fair to say that they are in a relegation battle. They have put in some good performances this season, but with no wins in a 8 games and 6 defeats on the road today seems a good time to back their opponents.

Watford are starting to gel as a team after a summer of comings and goings. They currently sit 2nd in the 6 game form table. They haven't lost in their last 6 and have scored 16 goals in that time. Watford are starting to look like play-off/promotions contenders and with the ability to strengthen in January they may be a side to follow in the coming weeks.

There is a clear disparity between these two side and I'm happy to go for a home win.

Back Watford at 1.80 - BetVictor


Nottingham Forest v Hull

Forest cost us some money on Tuesday night, I think they didn't take Ipswich seriously couple that with Ipswich putting a decent performance together and the result didn't go the way I was hoping. Hull by contrast done everything but score against Palace. That game was Palaces toughest of the season so far.

However I don't think there is too much between these side. Forest probably have around a 45% chance of winning this match, but are priced up at 2.50 (40%). With only 3 points between these sides in the league, a Forest win would move them above Hull, which makes these odds wrong.

Back Nottingham Forest at 2.50 - BetVictor


Crystal Palace v Br*ghton

If forums are anything to go by the wheels are falling off at Palace, they haven't won in two games and failed to score for the 1st time this season. They even have the audacity to lose a game after a 14 game unbeaten run.

I've wrote about the reasons why derby games are worth getting involved in. The players playing are still the same,the form table is still the same, people will say "yeah but it's a derby game, the players will be more up for it". Surely both sets of players will be "up for it", which cancels that statement out when looking at the betting.

The facts of this game are:

Crystal Palace

• 3rd in the 6 game form table
• 2nd in the league
• 1 defeat in 16 games
• Lost 8 of last 48 home games
• Scored more than any team at home this season (24)
• Are 5 places and 6 points better off in than Brighton

Brighton

• Unbeaten in 7 games
• 5th in the 6 game form table
• Have the best away defence in the league (9)
• 7th in the league

Looking at that and being objective you could make the case that these teams are of equal ability, being kind to Brighton there as I believe Palace currently have the best starting XI in the league. However if you say these teams are equal then Palace should be price at 2.22 (45%).

I would advise anyone who enjoys good football to find and online link and watch this game as you should see some excellent attacking football from both sides. Here

Back Crystal Palace at 2.45 - BetVictor

Reference to 5-0 day with that celebration?

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

BetVictor are really offering the prices this weekend, this treble pays out at almost 16/1

The Championship - 27th & 28th November 2012

I'm not going to go on about Saturday too much but, how unlucky was that? Brighton missed a 1st half penalty, took a 2nd half lead and were murdering Bolton, only for Ngog of all people to score in the 95th minute to make it 1-1.

That was the worst day of the season so far with only 1 out of 4 coming in, but the main bank has still increased by 124.42% since August. I'm happy with that and it's better than what the banks pay. Anyway it's another big evening of Championship football and hopefully some nice profits.

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest

I backed Ipswich on Saturday and they proved to be useless, the below match stats show they had 1 shot on target at HOME to Peterborough. Their goal came through a soft penalty decision.



Ipswich Town v Peterborough United Match Stats

 If you cannot raise your game in front of your home crowd after a 6-0 hammering the previous week, then questions need to be asked about the commitment of the players.

Ipswich were booed off at half time and against a Forest side who will be in the Top 8 at the end of the season I can see the boos starting earlier this time round.

Forest have only lost once away from home this season, compared to Ipswich's one home win. Forest have lost once in 10 games, at home to Millwall (unbeaten in 11).

With Forest scoring in every away game and sitting 3rd in the table for average away goals, 1.78 per game, it's difficult to see them not scoring against a side who have a goal difference of -25.

If we work from there we are effectivly giving Forest a 1-0 headstart, which against the lowest scorers in the entire football league (14) makes the odds for an away victory very attractive.

Back Nottingham Forest at 2.46 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

If this comes in then I'll be buying a few drinks on Saturday. At 975,670/1 with BetVictor it will be a nice payday. I've had my usual 50p on and think it's got a decent chance. Seven draws on a wet and windy midweek list in November is not beyond the realms of realism, and draws do need to go up from the current 23%. Home wins for Derby and 'Boro seem plausible. Add into that away wins for Forest (as above),inform Millwall and Watford and you've got a proper #ToiletRollAcca.

The Championship - 24th November 2012

Last weekend the bank carried on growing with wins for Crystal Palace and Millwall, it now stands at +173.02%. It's a very interesting weekend at both ends of the table, with Place and Cardiff away in Yorkshire, Ipswich v Peterborough and Middlesbrough hosting Bristol City. Depending on results some rather large gaps could begin to appear in the table.

Derby County v Birmingham City

Derby have two sides, the one that play at Pride Park where Theo Robinson scores for fun and the one that go away from home and have one shot on target. Fortunately for them they are at home this week to a Birmingham side who are below them in both the current form table and the league table.

At the beginning of the season I thought that Birmingham would be challenging for the play-offs, they still might, however it seems that Lee Clark is struggling to adapt to managing at a higher level. Without the services of Jordan Rhodes he doesn't have a player who he can rely on for goals and it looks like he doesn't know what his best XI is.

I don't see too much difference between these sides so I'd give Derby a minimum 45% (2.22) chance of winning this match.

Back Derby at 2.25 - General


Brighton v Bolton

Nothing would give me more satisfaction than to see both these side play out a dull 0-0 draw. However I've been impressed with Brighton in recent weeks and can see them sneaking this one. Since Will Buckley has returned to the side they offer a threat going forward. They are currently on a five match unbeaten run and have the best defensive record in the league. Last week they went to Huddersfield and got a deserved three points.

Bolton have only one away win this season. If Dougie Freedman sticks to his style of play Brighton will have plenty of the ball. Bolton haven't kept a clean sheet away from home this season so I expect Brighton to score. Bolton are also conceding an average of two goals a game on their travels.

I think that Brighton have around a 47% (2.12) chance of winning this match.

Back Brighton at 2.16 - Betfair


Ipswich Town v Peterborough

I still believe that Peterborough will finish bottom of the league. They've picked up some good results this season but have generally been awful. They have now lost their last 4 and conceded 4 at home last week and were lucky not to let in 5 or 6 against Palace the previous week.

Ipswich have a ridiculous goal difference of -25 but you won't get many opportunities to back the home side at even money v Peterborough this season. I would expect a typical Mick McCarthy display from Ipswich after he's put the side through defensive training all week.

I expect this to be a close game with few chances, however I expect the home side to grind out a result in a game they must win if they want to get out of this relegation battle. Long term I can see Ipswich moving away from the relegation zone and expect them to finish at least 15 points clear of Peterborough.

Back Ipswich at 2.00 - Betfair


Leeds United v Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace is where the bulk of this seasons profits have came from. Palace are now unbeaten in 14 games, winning 11 of them. They are currently on a 5 match winning streak. Wins over Leeds today and Hull on Tuesday would equal a club record and set things up nicely for the visit of Brighton to break the consecutive wins record.

But enough of that for now and a look at today's game. Leeds haven't won in 7 games and have lost their last 3. They could have easily lost their last 7 if it wasn't for Michael Browns long range shooting and Charlton missing open goals. One of their major problems is keeping 11 men on the pitch. With Bolasie and Zaha running at them I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a red card today.

With that in mind I think it's worth backing the league leaders to add to their collection of away wins this season that include Wolves, Bolton and Leicester.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.50 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray - Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Will Buckley   - Brighton v Bolton
Theo Robinson - Derby County v Birmingham

The treble pays just over 20/1 with Coral


#ToiletRollAcca

This weekend it pays out at over 109,000/1. Last week we got half way again so here's hoping we can get 11 up before sitting down to watch the late game.

The Championship - 16th & 17th November 2012

Last weekend was tough from the outset and I explained on Twitter that I wanted to lay Leicester and Brighton, but had no confidence in Nottingham Forest or Wolves. As it turned out both of those bets would have been winners.

It did turn into a good weekend though with the below bets advised on twitter;

Lay Peterborough in-play at 1.49 WON
Back District 3 6th Elimination in X Factor at 2.48 & 3.65 WON
Back Chelsea v Liverpool at 1.92 LOST

This weekends football looks easier, on paper, to call. Hopefully we can get at least two from three to continue the bank building, which currently stands at +147.34%.

Crystal Palace v Derby County

It's interesting the way this match is priced up considering the stats;

Crystal Palace 

• 8 defeats in their last 47 home games
• Unbeaten in last 13 games (10 wins, 3 draws)
• Top of the league
• Scored 21 goals at home so far this season (avg. 2.63 per game)
• Scored in every game this season

Derby County

• Won 2 of their 8 away games this season
• Scored 7 goals in 8 away games this season (failed to score in 3 of them)
• Averaging 0.88 goals per game away from home
• Concede an average of 1.50 goals away from home

From the above I can't see Derby stopping Palace scoring, especially when the home side have around 60% of the ball. If Derby do only end up with 40% of the ball I can't really see them troubling the Palace goal on to many occasions.

I expect Palace to score at least 2 and give them a minimum 55% (1.81) chance of winning this game.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.98 - Betfair

Huddersfield v Brighton

I don't get the prices of this game, it's priced up like it's August. Hudderfield are higher in the league and seem very capable of holding their own at this level. Brighton are currently on a run of 2 wins from their last 10 games. Huddersfield have won 5 in that time.

Brighton are a side that like to keep the ball, which helps them deffensivly. However Hudderfield are another side that keep possession and with the fire power they have up front I can see them causing Brighton issues. In my opinion the odds for this game are the wrong way round, with Huddrsfield at a maximum of 2.50.

Back Huddersfield  at 3.05 - Betfair

Millwall v Leeds United

Millwall are on a run of 9 without defeat, Leeds haven't won in 6 games. Leeds are really struggling to score goals at the moment and last weekends 6-1 defeat at home to Watford hardly inspires confidence. Millwall are finding the net regularly now, 15 goals in the last 6 games, so it's hard to see Leeds keeping a clean sheet here.

Millwall at odds on is a bit short, due to my belief that these two side are not that different to each other based on ability. So I'm going to put some money up at a price and hope to get matched. 2.25 is probably about the right price, based on long term prospects. However considering current form I'll get involved if i can get matched at 2.16.

Back Millwall at 2.16 - Betfair

** Put the bet up on Betfair and hope for a drift**

If singles aren't your thing the treble pays just under 10/1 with William Hill

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

The reasons for having Glenn Murray and Andy Keogh, is because I expect both their sides, Crystal Palace and Millwall, to score at least two goals. I've put Tom Ince in because Bristol City are really struggling defensively at the moment.

This treble pays over 14.41 with Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca

Always have to have a bit of fun and dream big for a small stake. This week it pays over 226,000/1 with BetVictor.

The Championship - 9th to the 11th November 2012

This weekends list is just tough to call, there is no value about. For that reason I can't advise any singles tonight. If there is anything after team news is announced then I will put my bets up on twitter.

For the time being I'll be having the usual Anytime Goalscorer Treble and the #ToiletRollAcca

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

On Tuesday night I put a treble up at 82.5, but for some reason I decide on Chris Wood instead of Rhodes, Murray or Austin, those three all scored along with the other two in the treble. Unfortunately for me Chris Wood played in a 0-0 draw at Watford.

So let hope we get the 'luck' this weekend.

Glenn Murray is scoring for fun at the moment and it helps that Crystal Palace are winning penalties in almost every game. Peterborough also haven't had a league clean sheet since December 2009 (over 150 games)

Craig Noone has scored in his last three games, so at 6.50 he has to be added.

Liam Trotter is Millwalls' second highest scorer with six goals. They've scored 15 goals in their last 6 games, so if that continues it's likely he'll be on the scoresheet.

Treble pays 53.63 with Coral

#ToiletRollAcca

Hopefully we can get through the Friday night game and the early Saturday Kick-off, so that the dream's still alive for the 3 o'clocks. This pays 180,000/1 with Bet Victor.

                                                                     

The Championship - 6th November 2012

I mentioned on Saturday night that draws this season was really low compared to the average of around 28%.

So when I looked at this midweek fixture list I had this in mind. The further into the season we get the harder it becomes to find value as teams start to be priced up on their actual ability and not perceived greatness (unless it's Liverpool).

If your going to get a low scoring round of fixtures with an increase in draws it makes sense that it would be on a cold and wet Tuesday night. For that reason I only have the one single. I think you'll see form my accumulator that I see a lot of these games being close.

Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town

If I'm correct in my growing belief, that Crystal Palace have the best starting XI in the league then we won't be getting Even money on Home Games v bottom 12 side much longer. Palace are unbeaten in 11 games and playing some of the best football they have in years. They have beaten Cardiff, Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves.

Ipswich by contrast have 2 wins from their 14 games this season and sit bottom of the league. If they were away to a more favorable side (Cardiff, Leicester, Leeds etc...) the home team would be priced up at 1.8x.

I can see Ipswich allowing Palace to play the ball around at will, up until they get within 30 yards of goal. Blackburn tried this on Saturday and the pressure eventually told. Palace will need to be patient but with Bolasie and Zaha moving defenders from side to side with their pace and skill, the gaps will eventually appear. This will allow Garvan and Jedinak to push on, dominate the midfield and create more goal scoring opportunities.

For those reasons I am happy to back a side that have only lost 8 of their last 46 home games at 2.00.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.00 - Betfair 


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

As it's a Tuesday night and only a bit of fun, I've come up with a big priced treble

Yala Bolasie - Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town
Craig Noone - Charlton Athletic v Cardiff City
Chris Wood - Watford v Millwall

The above treble pays almost 82/1 with Bet365


 #ToiletRollAcca

Due to having a load of draws it pays a healthy 300,000/1 with Bet Victor

The Championship - 2nd & 3rd November 2012

This looks like a big betting weekend with 40% of my bank going on the below 4 singles. I also have two other matches I'm looking at but I'm waiting to see what the market does before committing to them. Again the form table has to come out due to some of the prices on offer just looking wrong.

FtS = Failed to Score

Brighton v Leeds

Looking at the above form table Brighton are winless in 6 games and sit 10th in the league overall. Leeds are 8th in the form table and sitting 11th in the league. A few weeks ago I went on about how Brighton have failed to score against a side that you'd expect to finish in the top half of the league. They managed to break that run at Blackpool last weekend via a mistake from the goalkeeper. They've already failed to score in 6 of their 13 games this season so I don't see why they have been priced up around the 2.00 mark. That price suggests they have a 50% chance of them winning this game.

At worst I can see Brighton finishing 3-5 points ahead of Leeds. So I don't think it would be too wide of the mark to say that these teams are of equal ability, and that's being kind to Brighton. With all things being equal I'd give Brighton a maximum 46% chance of winning this, which equates to odds of 2.17.

Lay Brighton at 2.04 - Betfair


Birmingham v Ipswich

Are Birmingham about to turn the corner? They are unbeaten in three games and are starting to climb the table. This weekend they come up against bottom of the table Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have no wins in 11 and only 1 win this season. They do however have Mick McCarthy as manager. So the question in this match is;

What % chance does a new manager increase a teams likely hood of winning?

For me Birmingham are a much better side and will finish around 8-10 places above Ipswich. Even after taking a potential Mick McCarthy 'bounce' into consideration I would give the home side a minimum chance of 52%.

Back Birmingham at 2.06 - Betfair


Crystal Palace v Blackburn

A bit like last weekend we have Crystal Palace now unbeaten in 10 games. I've mentioned a few times that they are constantly under-rated. I'm now starting to think that their first XI could be the best in the league. Wins against Cardiff, Wolves, Leicester and Bolton (the last three in that list were all away from home) add weight to that argument.

Blackburn themselves are in good form and sit one place below Palace in the league. So with that as a starting point I think it would be fair to say these two sides will be close and the end of the season. On that basis I don't understand why Palace, who have had a great record at Selhurst Park for almost 2 years now (8 defeats in 45 games) are priced up at anything higher than 2.50.

You can bring the manager argument into it but I feel the last two performances and results somewhat nullify that.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.72 - Betfair


Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough

This bet is placed solely on current form. Peterborough have won 4 of their last 6, and were not disgraced in their two defeats. They are now starting to score goals and I feel it's worth taking the risk to side with them this weekend.

Before last weekends wins against Ipswich, can't take much credit from that at the moment, Sheffield Wednesday had not won in 9 games. I can only imagine that they are priced up at odds on because the belief is they will now climb the table. I still believe that Peterborough will go down, however Sheffield Wednesday won't be that far ahead of them.

I cannot be giving Wednesday a 54% chance of winning this game and would have them at 2.00 minimum.

Lay Sheffield Wednesday at 1.86 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

Victor Chandler are paying out at a very nice 144,000/1 on this.

The Championship - 27th October

After looking down this weekends fixture list, it seemed a good time to go back to the form table. There seems to be couple of games that seem to go against form and logic, based on the prices on offer.

FtS = Failed to Score

Middlesbrough v Bolton

Middlesbrough sit 3rd in the recent form table and 3rd in the league. Bolton are 15th on current form and 16th overall. I have both these sides down as top half sides and I can't see there being much between them at the end of the season. On that basis alone I wouldn't give Bolton a 35% chance of winning this. I would give them a maximum chance of 30%. Therefore I would price them up at around 3.3x.

Based on that I would price Middlebrough at around the 2.30 mark. The current odds just seem to be wrong for me. The don't take account of recent form, the quality of the two sides and seem to be based on 'new manager' syndrome.

Back Middlesbrough at 2.66 - Betfair

Wolves v Charlton

Wolves are 6th in the league and I feel that is around where they will finish. Charlton sit 18th but I don't feel they will finish much higher than that. Charlton picked up a win at Blackpool and were unlucky to only get a draw in their last outing at Leeds. They have however been beaten at home by 10 man Watford and outplayed by Barnsley. I feel that this combination of results show that whilst they can perform well on occasion they are not able to find the consistency to challenge in this league. 

Wolves are starting to adjust to this league and with a strike-force containing Doyle and Ebanks-Blake they will be hard to handle for any team. They have also added Jermaine Pennant to the side, who should stand out in this league. I would give Wolves a minimum 55% (1.81) chance of winning this fixture.

Back Wolves at 1.91 - William Hill

Leicester v Crystal Palace

So we have the two form side in the league, 1st v 4th, Leicester have De Laet and St. Ledger out. Wilfred Zaha is back for Palace. Both these sides have scored in every game this season. Leicester have been impressive at home with their 100% record and have kept 4 clean sheets. 

To counter that Crystal Palace are on a 9 game unbeaten run. Yes they have lost their manager, but to look at that more closely, was it Dougie Freedman who changed their fortunes or the players getting fed up with his start with nil against lets keep it that way tactics? Remember before the 8 game unbeaten run he presided over, Palace had won 3 of the previous 25 league games in 2012. On Tuesday night at Barnsley they started the game like nothing had happened, it took an 87th minute 25 yard strike to deny them the three points.

I still believe this Palace starting XI are top 8 quality, so I don't get why this game is priced up like they are a bottom 3 side. Even if I took the manager loss into consideration I cannot give Leicester more than a 55% (1.81) chance of winning this game. Palace may very well lose this but in the long term you've got to take on teams if they are priced up like this for no logical reason.

Lay Leicester at 1.62 - Betfair

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

After leaving this alone in midweek, where a whole host of my usual candidates found the net I'm hoping that I haven't missed my chance.

Peter Whittingham - Cardiff v Burnley

Kevin Doyle - Wolves v Charlton

DJ Campbell - Ipswich v Sheffield Wed

Pays over 18/1 with SkyBet

#ToiletRollAcca

In the week I wrote this I can see a few draws coming up. So far this season Drawn matches are down at 21% I expect this to go up to nearer the 28% mark by the end of the season, therefore we should start seeing cards where 5,6,7 games end up as draws. That round of fixtures ended with six draws and draws are up to 23%, I think it's worth taking the chance on this rising again at the weekend. Victor Chandler are paying over 284,000/1 on the below.

The Championship - 23rd & 24th October 2012

I think we can count ourselves a little unlucky not to get 2 from 2 in the football on Saturday. Crystal Palace were 2-0 up and cruising before Dean Moxey inexplicably handles the ball and got himself sent off. However with Brighton failing to find the net again we took out a small profit. We are now 13 from 19 and the main bank has increased by a little 77% after commission so far.

Add into that Saturdays horse picks, Excelebration (10/11), Frankel - Cirrus Des Aigles Forecast (6/5 on the Tote Exacta) and Sapphire (3/1) and we had a very good afternoon. The only blip was Opinion Poll, who was travelling well before pulling up.

But enough of the past and onto Tuesday nights football.

Leicester v Brighton

I mentioned on Saturday that Brighton have failed to score against a side who I believe will finish in the top 12 this season, they have also only manged 1 point in those games. They duly lost 1-0 to Middlesbrough and further confirmed this. I see no reason why Leicester won't be finishing in the top 6 this season, after a sluggish start to the season they are starting to find their form and find themselves at the top of the table.

By contrast Brighton started the season quickly and found themselves top of the league early on. However they have now had to play some of the better sides and don't look as threatening, they've now failed to score in 5 of their 11 matches and have no wins in the last 4, mustering 1 goal (an 80th minute equaliser against Ipswich who are now winless in 9!Ten if you include the cup defeat to Carlisle).

Leicester have won every home league game this season and scored in all 11 matches I think that by the end of the season the gulf in class between these two side will be clear for everyone to see. Pricing this game up on where I expect these sides to finish I would have Leicester at 1.8x max. so the near evens available on Betfair is worth taking.

Back Leicester at 1.99 - Betfair

Leeds United v Charlton Athletic

Leeds are another side who have scored in every game this season, they are also on a 5 match unbeaten league run. Charlton are a side who I'm still not sure about I don't think they'll go down, but I'm not sure they're good enough to avoid a relegation battle.

I see Charlton finishing around 17th - 19th, which I think the club will be happy with. Leeds are really playing some good football this season and El Hadji Diouf is really enjoying himself. Warnock seems to be getting the best out of him. If Warnock can keep him sweet then there is no reason why Leeds cannot make the play-offs. I think they are certain of a top half finish.

I therefore would give Leeds a more than a 50% chance of winning this match-up.

Back Leeds at 2.00 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

I won't be doing an Anytime Goalscorer Treble on this round of fixtures because I can see a few draws coming up. So far this season Drawn matches are down at 21% I expect this to go up to nearer the 28% mark by the end of the season, therefore we should start seeing cards where 5,6,7 games end up as draws. There has also been an average of 2.92 goals per game this season, I expect this to start coming down now to nearer the 2.6x mark. With all that in mind this bet pays over 170,000/1 with Victor Chandler.

Champions Day (Ascot) - 20th October 2012

I've been looking forward to this day for a while now and there is 1 horse who I'm very keen to back.

Excelebration (3:30) has only lost 1 race when Frankel hasn't been in the field, that was on his debut. So on all know form he is the 2nd best miler of his generation. He was priced up at 4/6 in the without Frankel market, when last at Ascot back in June and he came second, even though they didn't run the race to suit him. Therefore anything at 4/6 or above has to be seen as value.

Obviously the star of the show comes in the 4:05. Frankel has been faultless throughout his career so far and it's been a pleasure to see him numerous times in the flesh as well as dramatically increasing my wealth. Still can't believe the 11/8 Ante-post for the 2011 Sussex Stakes. I will be having a bet on Frankel at 2/5 if that price becomes available. I'm not concerned about the ground but I rate Cirrus Des Aigles very highly, the softer the ground the better this horse is. However he showed he can act on good ground by winning this race last year. The best bet in this race is probably a Straight Forecast on Frankel (3) to beat Cirrus Des Aigles (2)

In the 2:55 there is a horse running whose last 4 runs read 1111 and all of those were on Soft or worse. Dermot Weld doesn't send many over but when he does they have to be respected. So we get to Sapphire, I have question marks over this years 3 year olds and Great Heavens has ran in a stamina sapping Arc less than 2 weeks ago. It's remains to be seen if Dancing Rain will be as good as she was last year after a lay off in her 1st run of the season. At around the 3/1 mark I'm happy to get involved.

Opinion Poll (1:45) has never ran a bad race, hasn't been outside the top 4 since his debut in 2008. Was beaten in this race last year by Fame and Glory, who has now had two poor runs in a row and doesn't really seem interested anymore. On his last race he finished 1/2 a length down on Colour Vision in the Royal meeting. Since then Colour Vision has run 3 times and not registered a win, beaten at Goodwood by Saddlers Rock. There's form lines and conclusions that can be drawn all over this race. Every horse he is capable of beating the other so it make sense to stick with one you know will run it's race. At 3/1 i'm happy to get involved.

Opinion Poll
Sapphire
Excelbration
Frankel - Cirrus Des Aigles Straight Forecast
A 4-fold on the above happening should pay out around the 60/1 mark (Totesport & Betfred)

I will also be having a single on Excelebration

The Championship - 20th October 2012

Crystal Palace v Millwall

"Never bet on derby games" is a saying that I've never believed in. Just because a game is a derby doesn't change the form or the quality of the sides involved. Palace are 4th in the table and top the form tables. They have won 6 and draw 1 of their last 7 games. Millwall by contrast sit 20th with 1 win in their last 6 games. They way both these side are playing I see no reason why Palace won't be finishing above Millwall this season.

Going into it further I see the Palace starting XI as a definite top 8 lineup, whether they finish there will be down to squad depth and injuries. An injury to either Zaha, Bolasie or Murray would dramatically affect the way this side play.

Millwall on the other hand don't look like a side that can challenge for the play-off positions. They have players who are adequate at this level and I expect them to finish around 14th - 16th. That will be mainly down to the goals of Henderson and the creative play of Keogh.

Millwall have failed to keep a clean sheet this season and I can't see that changing against a side who have scored in every game. For me the key man on Saturday will be Yannick Bolasie as I can see Millwall setting out to keep Zaha quiet. This should allow Bolasie to expose them down the other wing.

I rate Crystal Palace's chance of winning this game at around 50% therefore anything over evens is value.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.10 - General


Brighton v Middlesbrough

The markets on Betfair at the moment is suggesting that Brighton are the 4th best side in the league, with 'Boro 11th. I just can't see this, Brighton do play some good football but all to often are found wanting in front of goal. They've failed to score in 40% of their matches this season, only Peterborough are worse with that stat.

They have played 3 sides that I expect to finish in the top half of the table so far this season (Birmingham, Cardiff and Hull) from those games they have score 0 goals and picked up 1 point. I firmly believe that Middlesbrough will finish in the top 12 this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish above Brighton.

After a start to the season which saw 'Boro win their 1st three home games but lose the 1st three away things are starting to level out. They've now won their last two on the road and were only beaten by and 89th minute deflection against Leicester for their only defeat in the last 4.

The odds suggest the Brighton have 55% chance of winning this match, but I rate their chances nearer the 45% mark. Therefore I have to take Brighton on.

Lay Brighton at 1.84 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray - (Crystal Palace v Millwall)
Charlie Austin - (Burnley v Blackpool)
Peter Wittingham - (Nottingham Forest v Cardiff)

The treble pays just over 19/1 with Bet365


#ToiletRollAcca

I did post this up on twitter on Friday afternoon as the Leeds game was on Friday evening.
So hopefully they can win, it pays 380,000/1 but taking out Leeds takes it down to around 125,000/1.

The Championship - 6th October 2012

I've taken a close look at the form tables for this weekends fixtures and tied it in with my own beliefs on what makes a good bet. The below shows the form table for the last six games, broken down into Total, Home and Away.

#		Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1		Crystal Palace	6	5	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	0	6	4	3	3	0	0	4	1	+5	16
2		Leicester City	6	5	0	1	11	5	3	3	0	0	6	2	3	2	0	1	5	3	+6	15
3		Brighton & …	6	4	1	1	10	4	3	1	1	1	4	2	3	3	0	0	6	2	+6	13
4		Cardiff City	6	4	0	2	13	9	3	3	0	0	7	2	3	1	0	2	6	7	+4	12
5		Wolverhampt…	6	4	0	2	9	6	3	2	0	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	5	3	+3	12
6		Blackburn R…	6	3	2	1	11	8	3	2	0	1	5	4	3	1	2	0	6	4	+3	11
7		Blackpool	6	3	1	2	15	10	3	2	0	1	11	4	3	1	1	1	4	6	+5	10
8		Derby County	6	3	1	2	12	8	3	2	0	1	9	5	3	1	1	1	3	3	+4	10
9		Huddersfiel…	6	3	1	2	11	9	3	1	0	2	3	5	3	2	1	0	8	4	+2	10
10		Watford	6	3	1	2	10	8	3	1	1	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	6	5	+2	10
11		Birmingham City	6	3	1	2	7	10	3	2	0	1	3	6	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	10
12		Burnley	6	2	2	2	13	12	3	1	2	0	10	7	3	1	0	2	3	5	+1	8
13		Leeds United	6	2	2	2	13	13	3	1	1	1	7	7	3	1	1	1	6	6	+0	8
14		Hull City	6	2	1	3	11	12	3	1	0	2	7	7	3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	7
15		Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	9	12	3	1	1	1	5	4	3	1	0	2	4	8	-3	7
16		Bolton Wand…	6	2	1	3	8	10	3	1	1	1	4	4	3	1	0	2	4	6	-2	7
17		Peterboroug…	6	2	0	4	9	12	3	0	0	3	2	6	3	2	0	1	7	6	-3	6
18		Bristol City	6	1	2	3	10	13	3	0	1	2	6	9	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	5
19		Barnsley	6	1	2	3	9	11	3	0	2	1	2	4	3	1	0	2	7	7	-2	5
20		Millwall	6	1	2	3	8	12	3	1	0	2	4	5	3	0	2	1	4	7	-4	5
21		Sheffield W…	6	1	1	4	8	14	3	1	0	2	5	7	3	0	1	2	3	7	-6	4
22		Charlton At…	6	1	1	4	7	10	3	0	1	2	2	4	3	1	0	2	5	6	-3	4
23		Nottingham …	6	0	4	2	6	8	3	0	2	1	2	3	3	0	2	1	4	5	-2	4
24		Ipswich Town	6	0	3	3	5	10	3	0	1	2	3	6	3	0	2	1	2	4	-5	3

Crystal Palace v Burnley
Crystal Palace are the form team in the league at the moment, they've picked up some really impressive results in this six game unbeaten run;

• Ended Sheffield Wednesdays 18 game unbeaten run
• Beat Cardiff (Now top of the league)
• Won at Bolton
• Won at Wolves to end their 4 match winning streak

I commented last weekend that Palace are generally underrated by the bookies and the same looks true this weekend. Burnley are at very best an 8th placed side. Charlie Austin is a fantastic goalscorer but if you can keep him quiet then you'll go a long way to beating Burnley. Palace aren't the best defensively but are continuously improving at the back as the new signings are getting used to each other.

A crowd of around 18,000 is expected at Selhurst and Dougie Freedman will be enforcing the message that a performance needs to be put in to get crowds up. This Palace starting 11 is as good as any in the league and now that the defensive tactics have been ditched, teams are struggling to live with them. Wilfred Zaha is becoming unplayable at this level and Yannick Bolasie has added balance and a threat down the other wing. This has given the centre midfielders more options and they are able to control the game. Add to that Glenn Murray's goals and you have a starting 11 that are genuine play-off contenders. For Palace to challenge for the play-offs they will need to strengthen in January, but at the time being they are a side to be with.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.3x - Betfair

Ipswich Town v Cardiff City
Cardiff City are top of the league and have been in or around the play-offs for years now. They simply need to do it this season. They now have arguably their best squad they've had in that time. Compare that to Ipswich, a side that have the crowd on their back, a manager that the players don't believe in and no wins in 8 games. They are the lowest scores in the league against a side that have score 17 in their 8 games.

I expect Cardiff to be in the top 6 at the end of the season and have seen nothing from Ipswich that suggests they won't be in the bottom 8. This seems to be the perfect opportunity to end their 7 match winless streak and terrible away record against the Tractor Boys.

Taking into consideration current form and where I expect these sides to finish I give Cardiff a 40% chance of winning this match.

Back Cardiff City at 2.50+

Anytime Goalscorer Treble
I've enjoyed trying to get this bet up in the last week so I'm going to try it again, it only needs to hit 3 times a season for a profit.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Burnley)
Thomas Ince (Blackpool v Charlton)
Lukas Jutkiewicz (Watford v Middlebrough)

22/1 at Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca
You've always go to chase the dream on a Saturday and this weekend it pays over 180,000/1 with Victor Chandler.

Of the 108 games this season 47% have ended in Home wins, 31% Away and 21% Draws. You'd expect this to be around 28% at the end of the season, so I'm going for a large number of draws this week to start bringing these numbers back into line.