The Championship - 27th & 28th November 2012

I'm not going to go on about Saturday too much but, how unlucky was that? Brighton missed a 1st half penalty, took a 2nd half lead and were murdering Bolton, only for Ngog of all people to score in the 95th minute to make it 1-1.

That was the worst day of the season so far with only 1 out of 4 coming in, but the main bank has still increased by 124.42% since August. I'm happy with that and it's better than what the banks pay. Anyway it's another big evening of Championship football and hopefully some nice profits.

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest

I backed Ipswich on Saturday and they proved to be useless, the below match stats show they had 1 shot on target at HOME to Peterborough. Their goal came through a soft penalty decision.



Ipswich Town v Peterborough United Match Stats

 If you cannot raise your game in front of your home crowd after a 6-0 hammering the previous week, then questions need to be asked about the commitment of the players.

Ipswich were booed off at half time and against a Forest side who will be in the Top 8 at the end of the season I can see the boos starting earlier this time round.

Forest have only lost once away from home this season, compared to Ipswich's one home win. Forest have lost once in 10 games, at home to Millwall (unbeaten in 11).

With Forest scoring in every away game and sitting 3rd in the table for average away goals, 1.78 per game, it's difficult to see them not scoring against a side who have a goal difference of -25.

If we work from there we are effectivly giving Forest a 1-0 headstart, which against the lowest scorers in the entire football league (14) makes the odds for an away victory very attractive.

Back Nottingham Forest at 2.46 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

If this comes in then I'll be buying a few drinks on Saturday. At 975,670/1 with BetVictor it will be a nice payday. I've had my usual 50p on and think it's got a decent chance. Seven draws on a wet and windy midweek list in November is not beyond the realms of realism, and draws do need to go up from the current 23%. Home wins for Derby and 'Boro seem plausible. Add into that away wins for Forest (as above),inform Millwall and Watford and you've got a proper #ToiletRollAcca.

The Championship - 24th November 2012

Last weekend the bank carried on growing with wins for Crystal Palace and Millwall, it now stands at +173.02%. It's a very interesting weekend at both ends of the table, with Place and Cardiff away in Yorkshire, Ipswich v Peterborough and Middlesbrough hosting Bristol City. Depending on results some rather large gaps could begin to appear in the table.

Derby County v Birmingham City

Derby have two sides, the one that play at Pride Park where Theo Robinson scores for fun and the one that go away from home and have one shot on target. Fortunately for them they are at home this week to a Birmingham side who are below them in both the current form table and the league table.

At the beginning of the season I thought that Birmingham would be challenging for the play-offs, they still might, however it seems that Lee Clark is struggling to adapt to managing at a higher level. Without the services of Jordan Rhodes he doesn't have a player who he can rely on for goals and it looks like he doesn't know what his best XI is.

I don't see too much difference between these sides so I'd give Derby a minimum 45% (2.22) chance of winning this match.

Back Derby at 2.25 - General


Brighton v Bolton

Nothing would give me more satisfaction than to see both these side play out a dull 0-0 draw. However I've been impressed with Brighton in recent weeks and can see them sneaking this one. Since Will Buckley has returned to the side they offer a threat going forward. They are currently on a five match unbeaten run and have the best defensive record in the league. Last week they went to Huddersfield and got a deserved three points.

Bolton have only one away win this season. If Dougie Freedman sticks to his style of play Brighton will have plenty of the ball. Bolton haven't kept a clean sheet away from home this season so I expect Brighton to score. Bolton are also conceding an average of two goals a game on their travels.

I think that Brighton have around a 47% (2.12) chance of winning this match.

Back Brighton at 2.16 - Betfair


Ipswich Town v Peterborough

I still believe that Peterborough will finish bottom of the league. They've picked up some good results this season but have generally been awful. They have now lost their last 4 and conceded 4 at home last week and were lucky not to let in 5 or 6 against Palace the previous week.

Ipswich have a ridiculous goal difference of -25 but you won't get many opportunities to back the home side at even money v Peterborough this season. I would expect a typical Mick McCarthy display from Ipswich after he's put the side through defensive training all week.

I expect this to be a close game with few chances, however I expect the home side to grind out a result in a game they must win if they want to get out of this relegation battle. Long term I can see Ipswich moving away from the relegation zone and expect them to finish at least 15 points clear of Peterborough.

Back Ipswich at 2.00 - Betfair


Leeds United v Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace is where the bulk of this seasons profits have came from. Palace are now unbeaten in 14 games, winning 11 of them. They are currently on a 5 match winning streak. Wins over Leeds today and Hull on Tuesday would equal a club record and set things up nicely for the visit of Brighton to break the consecutive wins record.

But enough of that for now and a look at today's game. Leeds haven't won in 7 games and have lost their last 3. They could have easily lost their last 7 if it wasn't for Michael Browns long range shooting and Charlton missing open goals. One of their major problems is keeping 11 men on the pitch. With Bolasie and Zaha running at them I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a red card today.

With that in mind I think it's worth backing the league leaders to add to their collection of away wins this season that include Wolves, Bolton and Leicester.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.50 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray - Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Will Buckley   - Brighton v Bolton
Theo Robinson - Derby County v Birmingham

The treble pays just over 20/1 with Coral


#ToiletRollAcca

This weekend it pays out at over 109,000/1. Last week we got half way again so here's hoping we can get 11 up before sitting down to watch the late game.

The Championship - 16th & 17th November 2012

Last weekend was tough from the outset and I explained on Twitter that I wanted to lay Leicester and Brighton, but had no confidence in Nottingham Forest or Wolves. As it turned out both of those bets would have been winners.

It did turn into a good weekend though with the below bets advised on twitter;

Lay Peterborough in-play at 1.49 WON
Back District 3 6th Elimination in X Factor at 2.48 & 3.65 WON
Back Chelsea v Liverpool at 1.92 LOST

This weekends football looks easier, on paper, to call. Hopefully we can get at least two from three to continue the bank building, which currently stands at +147.34%.

Crystal Palace v Derby County

It's interesting the way this match is priced up considering the stats;

Crystal Palace 

• 8 defeats in their last 47 home games
• Unbeaten in last 13 games (10 wins, 3 draws)
• Top of the league
• Scored 21 goals at home so far this season (avg. 2.63 per game)
• Scored in every game this season

Derby County

• Won 2 of their 8 away games this season
• Scored 7 goals in 8 away games this season (failed to score in 3 of them)
• Averaging 0.88 goals per game away from home
• Concede an average of 1.50 goals away from home

From the above I can't see Derby stopping Palace scoring, especially when the home side have around 60% of the ball. If Derby do only end up with 40% of the ball I can't really see them troubling the Palace goal on to many occasions.

I expect Palace to score at least 2 and give them a minimum 55% (1.81) chance of winning this game.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.98 - Betfair

Huddersfield v Brighton

I don't get the prices of this game, it's priced up like it's August. Hudderfield are higher in the league and seem very capable of holding their own at this level. Brighton are currently on a run of 2 wins from their last 10 games. Huddersfield have won 5 in that time.

Brighton are a side that like to keep the ball, which helps them deffensivly. However Hudderfield are another side that keep possession and with the fire power they have up front I can see them causing Brighton issues. In my opinion the odds for this game are the wrong way round, with Huddrsfield at a maximum of 2.50.

Back Huddersfield  at 3.05 - Betfair

Millwall v Leeds United

Millwall are on a run of 9 without defeat, Leeds haven't won in 6 games. Leeds are really struggling to score goals at the moment and last weekends 6-1 defeat at home to Watford hardly inspires confidence. Millwall are finding the net regularly now, 15 goals in the last 6 games, so it's hard to see Leeds keeping a clean sheet here.

Millwall at odds on is a bit short, due to my belief that these two side are not that different to each other based on ability. So I'm going to put some money up at a price and hope to get matched. 2.25 is probably about the right price, based on long term prospects. However considering current form I'll get involved if i can get matched at 2.16.

Back Millwall at 2.16 - Betfair

** Put the bet up on Betfair and hope for a drift**

If singles aren't your thing the treble pays just under 10/1 with William Hill

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

The reasons for having Glenn Murray and Andy Keogh, is because I expect both their sides, Crystal Palace and Millwall, to score at least two goals. I've put Tom Ince in because Bristol City are really struggling defensively at the moment.

This treble pays over 14.41 with Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca

Always have to have a bit of fun and dream big for a small stake. This week it pays over 226,000/1 with BetVictor.

The Championship - 9th to the 11th November 2012

This weekends list is just tough to call, there is no value about. For that reason I can't advise any singles tonight. If there is anything after team news is announced then I will put my bets up on twitter.

For the time being I'll be having the usual Anytime Goalscorer Treble and the #ToiletRollAcca

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

On Tuesday night I put a treble up at 82.5, but for some reason I decide on Chris Wood instead of Rhodes, Murray or Austin, those three all scored along with the other two in the treble. Unfortunately for me Chris Wood played in a 0-0 draw at Watford.

So let hope we get the 'luck' this weekend.

Glenn Murray is scoring for fun at the moment and it helps that Crystal Palace are winning penalties in almost every game. Peterborough also haven't had a league clean sheet since December 2009 (over 150 games)

Craig Noone has scored in his last three games, so at 6.50 he has to be added.

Liam Trotter is Millwalls' second highest scorer with six goals. They've scored 15 goals in their last 6 games, so if that continues it's likely he'll be on the scoresheet.

Treble pays 53.63 with Coral

#ToiletRollAcca

Hopefully we can get through the Friday night game and the early Saturday Kick-off, so that the dream's still alive for the 3 o'clocks. This pays 180,000/1 with Bet Victor.

                                                                     

The Championship - 6th November 2012

I mentioned on Saturday night that draws this season was really low compared to the average of around 28%.

So when I looked at this midweek fixture list I had this in mind. The further into the season we get the harder it becomes to find value as teams start to be priced up on their actual ability and not perceived greatness (unless it's Liverpool).

If your going to get a low scoring round of fixtures with an increase in draws it makes sense that it would be on a cold and wet Tuesday night. For that reason I only have the one single. I think you'll see form my accumulator that I see a lot of these games being close.

Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town

If I'm correct in my growing belief, that Crystal Palace have the best starting XI in the league then we won't be getting Even money on Home Games v bottom 12 side much longer. Palace are unbeaten in 11 games and playing some of the best football they have in years. They have beaten Cardiff, Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves.

Ipswich by contrast have 2 wins from their 14 games this season and sit bottom of the league. If they were away to a more favorable side (Cardiff, Leicester, Leeds etc...) the home team would be priced up at 1.8x.

I can see Ipswich allowing Palace to play the ball around at will, up until they get within 30 yards of goal. Blackburn tried this on Saturday and the pressure eventually told. Palace will need to be patient but with Bolasie and Zaha moving defenders from side to side with their pace and skill, the gaps will eventually appear. This will allow Garvan and Jedinak to push on, dominate the midfield and create more goal scoring opportunities.

For those reasons I am happy to back a side that have only lost 8 of their last 46 home games at 2.00.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.00 - Betfair 


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

As it's a Tuesday night and only a bit of fun, I've come up with a big priced treble

Yala Bolasie - Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town
Craig Noone - Charlton Athletic v Cardiff City
Chris Wood - Watford v Millwall

The above treble pays almost 82/1 with Bet365


 #ToiletRollAcca

Due to having a load of draws it pays a healthy 300,000/1 with Bet Victor

The Championship - 2nd & 3rd November 2012

This looks like a big betting weekend with 40% of my bank going on the below 4 singles. I also have two other matches I'm looking at but I'm waiting to see what the market does before committing to them. Again the form table has to come out due to some of the prices on offer just looking wrong.

FtS = Failed to Score

Brighton v Leeds

Looking at the above form table Brighton are winless in 6 games and sit 10th in the league overall. Leeds are 8th in the form table and sitting 11th in the league. A few weeks ago I went on about how Brighton have failed to score against a side that you'd expect to finish in the top half of the league. They managed to break that run at Blackpool last weekend via a mistake from the goalkeeper. They've already failed to score in 6 of their 13 games this season so I don't see why they have been priced up around the 2.00 mark. That price suggests they have a 50% chance of them winning this game.

At worst I can see Brighton finishing 3-5 points ahead of Leeds. So I don't think it would be too wide of the mark to say that these teams are of equal ability, and that's being kind to Brighton. With all things being equal I'd give Brighton a maximum 46% chance of winning this, which equates to odds of 2.17.

Lay Brighton at 2.04 - Betfair


Birmingham v Ipswich

Are Birmingham about to turn the corner? They are unbeaten in three games and are starting to climb the table. This weekend they come up against bottom of the table Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have no wins in 11 and only 1 win this season. They do however have Mick McCarthy as manager. So the question in this match is;

What % chance does a new manager increase a teams likely hood of winning?

For me Birmingham are a much better side and will finish around 8-10 places above Ipswich. Even after taking a potential Mick McCarthy 'bounce' into consideration I would give the home side a minimum chance of 52%.

Back Birmingham at 2.06 - Betfair


Crystal Palace v Blackburn

A bit like last weekend we have Crystal Palace now unbeaten in 10 games. I've mentioned a few times that they are constantly under-rated. I'm now starting to think that their first XI could be the best in the league. Wins against Cardiff, Wolves, Leicester and Bolton (the last three in that list were all away from home) add weight to that argument.

Blackburn themselves are in good form and sit one place below Palace in the league. So with that as a starting point I think it would be fair to say these two sides will be close and the end of the season. On that basis I don't understand why Palace, who have had a great record at Selhurst Park for almost 2 years now (8 defeats in 45 games) are priced up at anything higher than 2.50.

You can bring the manager argument into it but I feel the last two performances and results somewhat nullify that.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.72 - Betfair


Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough

This bet is placed solely on current form. Peterborough have won 4 of their last 6, and were not disgraced in their two defeats. They are now starting to score goals and I feel it's worth taking the risk to side with them this weekend.

Before last weekends wins against Ipswich, can't take much credit from that at the moment, Sheffield Wednesday had not won in 9 games. I can only imagine that they are priced up at odds on because the belief is they will now climb the table. I still believe that Peterborough will go down, however Sheffield Wednesday won't be that far ahead of them.

I cannot be giving Wednesday a 54% chance of winning this game and would have them at 2.00 minimum.

Lay Sheffield Wednesday at 1.86 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

Victor Chandler are paying out at a very nice 144,000/1 on this.