My thoughts on this are pretty simple - Russia! I think they have the strongest squad and they avoid playing the hosts in game 1. I fully expect them to beat the Czech Republic which will put them level on points with Poland after the beat Greece in the earlier game. That sets up Poland v Russia on the 12th June, the winner of that game should go on to win the group, however both sides would be happy with a draw. I cannot see Russia losing to the Poles. I fully expect them to beat Greece in their final, lets face it Samaras won't be troubling the well organised Russian defence.
I feel that Poland will take second place in the group, more by default than being any good. I don't buy into this 'Lewandowski' craze that's sweeping Europe. He may have scored plenty of goals this season but he won't have Grosskreutz or Kagawa around.
GROUP B
The Group of 'Death', we have Holland, Germany, Ronaldo and Denmark. I'll start with the Dutch. They have plenty going forward and that should be enough to get them through this group. I have this niggling doubt about the Germans, a lot of their team played a lot of games and picked up a few injuries along the way, their hopes in this group rest on how they cope with Portugal's 9-0-1 formation in game 1. If they can't break it down and get caught on the break or Ronaldo does the magic he's been doing all season they could lose it 1 - 0 which would put them out in my opinion as they won't beat the Dutch. For those reasons I fancy the Dutch to win the group, but 2nd place will be down to that 1st Game, if the Germans avoid defeat they'll take 2nd, which at this time is the most likely outcome.
GROUP C
If Group B is the Group of Death then this group will bore to death. I'm really struggling to see a scenario where a game will have over 2.5 goals. For starters there's Spain, no Villa is a concern for me, but a bigger concern is how they (Barcelona) passed the ball around so much without doing that much with it against Chelsea. The core of their squad have played a ridiculous amount of games this season (World Club Championship, Copa del Ray final and Champions League Semi Final). With some of the knocks that have been picked up in recent months they could just burn out. When they went on their 35 game unbeaten run 10 of them were 1-0 wins.
We then have Italy and mini Italy - Ireland. These teams are going to setup in the standard Italian manner. If you've watched Crystal Palace play this season you'll know what that is! It consists of the other team have nil lets keep it that way. Eventually these type of teams go on to be beaten 1-0 and have no plan B.
I thought that Croatia may offer some attacking threat in this group but with Olic, a player who created space for the likes of Modric, with his clever runs they will be missing a huge part of their counter-attacking game plan.
GROUP D
France 21 games unbeaten with players like Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, Girod, Cabaye against England, who can call on a poor Liverpool Squad, a poor record in the European Championships and a poor record against Sweden. Seems like a no contest and I think it will be, for me France win this Group hands down, they have too much class going forward. If teams sit back they will wear them down, if teams attack them they'll punish them on the counter.
So second place is up for grabs. I have thought for a while that England won't win a game, we'll probably draw with the Swedes again then it finishes with Ukraine in Ukraine, not the sort of game you want if you need a result to qualify. I have it down as this going into the final group games
France 6 points
Sweden 2 points
Ukraine 1 point
England 1 point (bottom on goals scored)
And for that reason anything could happen, it really depends on what is going on in other games.
So my Bets for the Group Winners are
Russia to win Group A - 2.58 Betfair 5% of Bank
France to win Group D - 2.58 Betfair 5% of Bank
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