There's no hiding the fact that this has been a terrible month in The Championship for me. The only consolation is that I'm still in profit, +22.04% meaning I'm still beating the banks, and I've been playing only with profits since the 3rd week of the season.
The graph on the left shows the progress through the season so far. The yellow mark shows where I was at the end of December. After a down-trend like that, things can only get better.
Thankfully anyone who has followed me on twitter recently will have backed some excellent winners. I managed to follow on from last weekends blog with the below bets coming in at The Australian Open Tennis.
Azarenka to bt Li at 1.83
Lay 3 sets Murray v Djokovic at 2.98
A trading strategy on Murray v Djokovic which resulted in all profits made going on Djokovic at 1.18 in the 4th set
Bristol City v Watford
Both of these sides are on an upwards trajectory. Bristol City are starting to find some defensive resolve and have picked up 7 points from their last 6 games. However they still have the worst defence in the league with 56 conceded.
Watford's promotion push is well and truly under-way now thanks have the best strike partnership in the league. Deeney and Vydra have scored 30 goals between them. Watford are also the leagues top scorers with 56 goals.
Looking at this from a value point of view I have Watford winning this more than 50% of the time. A good reason to back that up is that Leicester went to Ashton Gate, were priced at 1.73 and won 4-0. At this time Watford are in better form than Leicester so they should be priced around that mark too.
Back Watford at 2.10 - General
Barnsley
I fancy Barnsley to beat Millwall on Tuesday night, but the prices look about right. Having taken a quick look ahead at the weekends fixtures there may be an opportunity of an easy trade. Blackpool are currently priced in the 1.66 to 1.72 region on Betfair. My thinking on this trade is that if Barnsley lose to Millwall the maximum downside is Blackpool price will stay around the same mark. The upside is that if Barnsley beat Millwall I expect Blackpool to drift to the 1.85 mark, meaning that you're able to green up.
**This bet isn't coming out of my main Championship bank and will not be inc. in P&L
The football hasn't been going so well this month, however anyone that follows me on Twitter will have been advised of the below bets in the last week;
Trading the Wawrinka v Djokovic match
Mark Selby to beat Neil Robertson in the Masters snooker at 1.65
Djokovic -6.5 games v Berdych at 2.28
Street Battle (Wolverhampton 22/1) at 20/1
Arsenal to beat West Ham at 1.55
Andy Murray to beat Roger Federer at 1.7x
So the last week has to go down as a success overall but I admit I need to get back to winning ways with the main Championship bank. Hopefully even with a cut down card this week due to the FA Cup we can have a good Saturday followed by picking some midweek winners.
Charlton v Sheffield Wednesday
Going into last weekend Sheffield Wednesday topped the six game form table. Their recent form is very much down to their solid defence, only 3 conceded in the last 6 and 4 clean sheets. They are now 5th in the form table with 11 points from 6.
Charlton also come into this game in good form, they are sitting 7th in the form table with 10 points. They haven't been as defensively solid as Wednesday but have scored 10 goals compared to Wednesdays 6 in recent games. In the last six Charlton have only failed to score 1 compared to 3 for Wednesday.
Charlton are nine places and 10 points better of than Wednesday in the league this season, so whilst Wednesday are an improving side it's hard to make a case for them being 'better' than Charlton. For these reasons I would have Charlton priced at 2.25 max.
Back Charlton at 2.38 - BetVictor
Wolves v Blackpool
Neither of these sides come into this match with much form, see below
My feeling is that Wolves with prove to be the better side at the end of the season, I feel that the players didn't want to work for Stale Solbakken. Dean Saunders is a completely different kind of manager. He'll get the players having a laugh and a joke and try to build a really good team spirit.
Blackpool have already lost two managers this season and with Appleton going to Blackburn it doesn't say much about their long term prospects if they lose a manager to a club that most football fans are laughing at.
Even looking at the full table for the season Wolves are only two places and 1 point behind Blackpool. Everything at the moment is pointing to these sides being of equal ability with them heading in different directions. I think that Wolves will be finishing above Blackpool this season and with all that in mind I cannot have them as underdogs for today's game.
@CherryAnalysts Won't you kick yourself if you pass them and they go on to win? If its value, its value, the rest you cant control I received the above tweet last week whilst discussing football matters and I think it typifies exactly what football betting is about. I'm of the belief that if you find value you'll make a profit long term. The last two weeks haven't gone well but I don't regret the selections. From a long term point of view the main bank has still increased by 93.08% which is way above my aim of beating the banks.
We have had some success with the last three tips posted on twitter coming in, Man Utd at 2.06 to beat Liverpool, Paphos at 1.95 13:30 Lingfield Wednesday and Sharapova to beat Williams 2-0 at 1.7x on Friday.
Crystal Palace v Bolton Wanderers You've probably all got sick of me going on about Palace by now, yes I've backed them a lot this season and taken them on once, but the fact is they are my most profitable team. I've been involved in 14 of their matches and 9 have resulted in a profit. If you regularly read my work you will know that I go on about Palace's home form a lot. It's now 8 defeats in 51 league games at Selhurst Park. Although they sit 19th in the full 6 game form table, they are 2nd in the 6 game home form table. They would be top of this table if it wasn't for an 89th minute Blackpool equaliser and Huddersfield equalising through a comedy deflection. I will admit that Palace's form in general isn't at the levels that they were showing earlier in the season. They seem to have lost a bit of their fitness and mental strength, this is showing in the number of late goals conceded coupled with them not being as clinical in front of goal. However there are two sides in this match. Palace may not be in great overall form but Bolton aren't pulling up any trees. In the last 6 games they've only picked up 1 more point than Palace. Overall they are 12 places and 13 points behind. In my write up on their last home game against Wolves I wrote: Palace's only home defeat this season came on the opening weekend when they conceded 2 goals in the last 2 minutes against Watford. Since then they have won 7 and drawn 4 which in my book means they should be odds-on for most matches at Selhurst Park. Palace won this match 3-1 and I still stand by this statement. Even taking into account the extra time against Stoke on Wednesday, 30 minutes more than Bolton played at Sunderland, I still have Palace at around the 2.10 mark at max. The odds on offer suggest that these sides are of equal ability, everything we've seen this season suggests they're not. Bolton aren't in the form that suggests they will finish with 6 points of Palace. So again Palace at home is the value call. Back Crystal Palace at 2.2x - Betfair
Millwall v Burnley
Burnley have been a side that have cost me money this season, however I stand by all on the bets I've placed on their games. They won at Sheffield Wednesday, with a 25 yarder and a penalty,Wednesday are now top of the form table. They beat Palace with a 20 yarder into the top corener after being outplayed for 70 minutes. Without Charlie Austin they still don't look like a side who can score, but frustratingly for me they are getting the rub of the green.
This weekend they travel to Millwall who are above them in the league. Burnley do sit 4th in the form table and this is what is keeping the Millwall price high. Millwalls home form is solid with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 6. I have these sides on an equal rating so would therefore have Millwall priced at 2.25.
When you add in the doubts arount Charlie Austin and my belief that Burnley have had a bit of luck on their side recently I have to go for a home win here. I belive that the signing of Nathan Tyson is a very good one for Millwall and he should go some way to replacing the goals they lost through Chris Woods move.
Again I think that 1 goal will be enough to win this game and if millwall score the 1st goal their home form should be enough for them to see this out.
Back Millwall at 2.30 - Betfair
Derby County v Nottingham Forest
This was the game at the top of my list when I starting looking at this weeks fixtures. Any of you who have followed me this season will know that I'm a fan of Derby's home form and my belief that Forest are over-rated.
I have these two sides at equal ability on what they have shown so far this season. I think that this is highlighted by the fact that Derby would leapfrog Forest with a win on Saturday. Forest are 19th in the six game away from table with 1 win in the last 6, compare that the Derby sitting 3rd in the Home form table and you have a stat that points to a home win.
This is a derby game but I've said many times before that I enjoy betting on this type of games due to the belief that "the players will be up for it" "it's a derby anything could happen". It's points like these that mean there is often value in these matchups. People seem to totally ignore the basics of football by throwing the form book out the window. The quality of the two teams involved doesn't change just because they are playing a side 15 miles down the road.
I'm concertrating on the basics, I belive that Derby's home form is superior enough to Forests away form. On current form there isn't much between these sides and on the season so far I can't see much difference, therefore I would have Derby priced at around 2.25.
Back Derby County at 2.4x - General
Watford v Huddersfield
Huddersfield are 23rd in the 6 game form table and haven't won in their last 11 league games. They travel to a Watford side who are 7th in the form table and 6th in the league. Watford have won 3 of their last 4 league games. The game that they didn't win was a crazy 4-3 defeat to Charlton where they took the lead twice, with players rested, and managed to lose by conceeding sloppy goals.
I cannot see them making the same mistakes here. They've had impressive victories on the road at Brighton and Boro recently and if they convert the form on their travels to what they do at Vicarage Road they will finish in the play-off with ease.
Watfords squad is becoming settled and with Vydra and Deeney they should always get goals. Whatever way I look at this I have Watford down at 1.80 max. The reason I have them at that price is due to long-term value. I think that if this game was played in a months time Watford would be at the 1.7x mark due to their home form picking up and the continuation of Huddersfield poor form.
Back Watford at 1.90 - BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
Leicester
Derby
Birmingham v Brighton DRAW
Petrborough
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Ipswich
Watford
Sheff Wed v Wolves DRAW
Millwall
Blackburn v Charlton DRAW
Cardiff
Brighton v Derby County
Derby sit one place below Brighton in the league and are level on points. Derby aren't the best travellers in the league with a 3W, 3D, 7D record however they are improving as a side. They currently sit 6th in the six game form table, this is 13 places above Brighton. Brighton have 9 wins all season, this is the lowest of the top 10 and the same as Wolves (17th). They are a tough side to beat, they've only lost 6 all season but they have way to many draws.
Brighton have picked up more points away from home than at home, however they are always priced short at home. Their average home price this season is 1.92, that would suggest they win 52% of their home games. However they have won 4 of 13, that's only 30%. Looking at it further their home wins came against Peterborough, Barnsley, Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday. That's the BOTTOM 4!!
Brighton may have beaten Newcastle, however they were favourites for that game so it can't go down as an amazing act of giant killing. They also went to Ipswich and won, however 3 of their 4 shots on target went in.
Derby are starting to score more goals and if they can replicate some of their home form on their travels they are serious play-off contenders.
At the prices Brighton have to be taken on. On form and league position there doesn't seem to be much between these two sides, therefore Brighton should be priced at around the 2.2x mark. Lay Brighton at 2.0x - Betfair Anytime Goalscorer Treble
Dwight Gayle (Nottingham Forest v Peterborough)
I fancy Peterborough to get something out of this game. Forest haven't won since McLeish took over and have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 games.That stat makes me think that Peterborough will get at least one goal, so their top league goalscorer is the man to go with here. Chris Wood (Bristol City v Leicester City)
I was in two minds about laying Leicester today, in the end I decided to leave it alone as Bristol City can't defend. Bristol City have already conceded 50 goals this season so the likely-hood is Leicester will score. Chris Wood has hit the ground running since his transfer. He's scored 3 goals in his 2 games so far, previous to that he scored 11 goals in 19 games for Millwall. At even money he offers more value than backing Leicester at odds-on.
Troy Deeney (Middlesbrough v Watford)
Watford have scored more goals away from home that any other side in the league (27). The rumour is that Boro have hamstring injuries all over the place. With that in mind I think it makes sense to go with Troy Deeney to grab a goal. He's chosen over Vydra as he is normally the penalty taker.
I'm glad that the FA Cup is over and I can get back to making some money. I'm going to try and start getting some of my work up earlier as I want to get more involved in the early markets, I feel there is more value to be had here. I start looking at the next set of fixtures as soon as one round has finished so I'm not really changing anything. The intention is to not only look for bets that will win but ones that will shorten on the Friday/Saturday when the liquidity in the markets increases.
Burnley v Crystal Palace
In the last round of fixtures I took on Burnley at Sheffield Wednesday due to Charlie Austin being out. Burnley won that game due to a 25 yard strike and a penalty. They then went to Barnsley in the FA Cup, again Charlie Austin was missing, however this time they lost 1-0. I'm still of the belief that without their top goal-scorer they have to be taken on. Austin reached the 20 goal mark on November 6th, but since then has netted 3 times in 10 games. So even if he does start then his form isn't that much of a concern to me with this bet.
If Charlie Austin doesn't play or you can keep him quiet then it's likely you can win the game with a single goal. Seeing as Palace have scored in all but one league game this season and are also the divisions top scorers, I fancy them to score here. Burnley do have the 5th best defence in the league and have kept clean sheets in 38% of their home games. I would make Palace about 1.34 to score in this match. Palace have also taken the lead in their last 7 league games and if they take the lead here I don't feel that Burnley will trouble them unless Charlie Austin is playing. Taking this into account I would have Palace priced at around the 2.6x mark.
Watford were priced at 2.87 when they visited Turf Moor, Wolves were around 2.80 and Leicester were 2.30. The league table shows that Palace are ahead of these sides and have been for a while now (see above table). All of this points to Palace being the value bet.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.8x - Betfair Cardiff City v Ipswich Town
It may seem strange that I'm taking on a side who have won 12 and lost 1 of their 13 home games and sit 7 points clear at the top of the table. However reading into their recent fixtures they've had a bit of luck on their side. I personally think that Cardiff have the best squad in the league and feel that they will go up more by grinding results out than being overly impressive. In their last 10 games they've only won of their last 14 games by more than 1 goal.
Ipswich come here in relatively good form, they sit 7th in the 6th game form table with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. They have added some really good players to their squad in this transfer window with McLean and McGoldirck. Defensively they still have a few issues but they are slowly improving in that department, I can't see them conceding 5 or 6 in this match.
My personal opinion on this league is than no team should be priced below 1.66 that's about the right price on Cardiff due to their home form, squad depth and current league positions of the two sides. However if the league season was to start again now knowing what we know from the last month I would have them priced at 1.9x, due to the improvement that Ipswich have shown. Therefore the true price for this game should be somewhere around the 1.80 mark.
It's the time of year that I like to start looking at my Cheltenham ante-post bets as it's just after the main contenders have had their Christmas runs but they run again and the prices shorten.
Last year at Cheltenham I had 9 bets of which 7 won and no horses came out of the 1st 3. Notable successes were ante-post bets on Quevega at 5/4 and bets on Finian's Rainbow at 4/1 in the Queen Mother. There was obviously the ones that didn't go too well, Hurricane Fly backed ante-post from 7/4 down to Evens and sent off at 4/6 failing to get the job done.
This year I'm going to start my Cheltenham betting with an ante-post dutching accumulator which pays over 80/1. The aim of this is to find a number of horses that I think will start shorter on the day therefore meaning they are currently value now.
To do this bet you will need to select the horses to find the best odds available at the time, for this I used Oddschecker and to work out the percentage of your total stake to put on each bet use a dutching calculator.
It's not a bet to go mental over but £25 spread over the 8 lines will return around about £2000.
*Odds correct at 13:00 Saturday 5th January
Mares Hurdle Quevega has won this race for the last 4 years and seemingly the only thing that could beat her is if she is in season or injury. The trainer has stated that she won't be going for The World Hurdle so 10/11 on a horse that will start 1/3 has to be taken.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
I was at Cheltenham last year when Sprinter Sacre won the Arkle and was blown away by how easy he won. He has speed and fantastic jumping, when those two are combined he can take a 1/2 a length plus out of anything over a fence.
The below shows his seasonal reappearance where he wins the Tingle Creek and shows how easily he eats the ground up on decent horses. His main danger this year would appear to be Flemenstar, however if the Irish horse goes for this race it will be an after-though as they thought they had a Gold Cup winner. You very rarely win a race at The Cheltenham Festival with an after-thought.
The Arkle
Like last year Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty team up in this race with a horse that wins it's races easily. Simonsig was one of my big fancies last year and I was very happy to back it at 9/4 in the Neptune. He has gone chasing this year and from his two runs over fences it looks like he's just got better. He's currently even money but I'm expecting around 4/6 on the day.
The Champion Hurdle
One of Hurricane Fly or Grandouet will shorten after the Irish Champion Hurdle on January 27th. That's why I've put them both in my Ante-post selections. The main dangers in the Champion Hurdle this year appear to be Zarkandar, who I don't fancy as Ruby Walsh won't be getting off Hurricane Fly to ride him (that's a tip in itself) and Grandouet who will come on for his run behind Zarkandar on ground which didn't suit. Darlan is the current market favourite based on his performance at Kempton on boxing day and whilst that was a great performance, I backed him at 3/1 because there wasn't much opposition in the field. Cinders and Ashes may have won the Supreme last year but I believe that was a weak race. As at least one of the selections will start shorter they make good ante-post sense.
Dynaste
I went to Kempton on Boxing Day with the intention of backing this horse in The Feltham, I was expecting 1/2 but got 4/6 before the off. This horse was hurdling last season against Big Bucks and the problem with judging the form of those races is that horses have to be ridden differently if they want a chance of winning.
This season he has gone chasing and won all 3 of his starts and he won The Feltham by 9 lengths due to a round of massive jumping. No Feltham winner has ever won The RSA Chase and that's probably why the price is around 5/2. He could alternatively go for The Jewsons so I think it's worth putting him in for both as whichever one he goes for I believe that he will start shorter than he currently is.
The Gold Cup
Bobs Worth's form from the Hennessy is currently the best in the book and that is the only reason he goes into my selections. I actually fancy Sir Des Champs, I backed him at 3/1 at the festival last year where he won by 4 1/2 lengths in the Jewsons. This season hasn't gone too well, he was 5 lengths behind Flemenstar at the beginning of December however I felt he needed the run. Next time out he ran in the Lexus where he showed that he had improved for the run but for some reason was running flat throughout the middle of the race. The Lexus ties a lot of form lines together and is well worth a watch. My feeling is that Sir Des Champs will improve again off the stronger pace set in The Gold Cup.
Of the other challengers I don't fancy Long Run as I feel he make too many mistakes. Paul Nicholls chasers are always shorter than they should be, due to the Kauto Star effect, and his record in chases at Cheltenham since the Kauto win in 2009 is awful so that rules out Tidal Bay and Silvinato Conti. If Flemenstar sticks to his original plan and goes for this race I'll be surprised as I don't think he stays the trip.
