The Championship - 29th September 2012

Barnsley v Ipswich Town

Bristol City have really impressed me this season, they currently sit 13th in the league having scored 11 goals. To stay there home form will be key, they are currently unbeaten (2 wins and 1 draw), conceding 1 goal in the process. This weekend provides them the perfect opportunity to continue that form with the visit of Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have managed to score 5 goals this season, joint worst with Peterborough. They have also conceded 15, only Peterborough have worse record than that. They've lost their last 3 games and only have the 1 win to their names this season, which came with their only away goal - 90th minute winner at Watford.

In the long term I think that these two sides will be nearer in the league than they currently are, so I'm going to take some caution with this bet.

Lay Ipswich at anything under 3.25 - Betfair

Huddersfield v Watford

Huddersfield find themselves 2nd in the league after Monday nights impressive win at Blackpool. Watford don't really know what they want to be at the moment. They won 2 of their 1st 3 games but have now picked up 1 point in the last 4. Zola still doesn't know what his best side is and surely that can't be good for building momentum.

Huddersfield by contrast are unbeaten since their stoppage time loss at Cardiff on the opening night. They've won 4, drawn 2, scored 12 and conceded 5. I don't expect them to finish second in the league, long term I see them 12th - 16th. I don't see Watford doing much better than that, the owners have said it's a long term plan. So anything but a relegation scrap should be seen as progress, but until Zola has a settled XI, I can't be backing them.

Back Huddersfield at 2.10 (in-play)

Middlesbrough v Leicester

I took Leicester on last weekend and it cost me, however I'm happy to take them on again in this match. I cannot see why they are favorites. 'Boro have won all of their home games and Leicester haven't picked up a point away from home.

At the end of the season I can't see these two sides being that far away from each other. Leicester were over-backed last season because of the money they spent and the same seems to be happening this year.

Lay Leicester at 2.76 - Betfair

Bolton v Crystal Palace

Palaces record against Bolton is truly awful, no wins there since 1980 and haven't beaten them home or away since 1983. However I just have to take Bolton on at the odds. Bolton will finish above Palace this season as they have more depth in their squad, but the starting eleven for Crystal Palace is as good as anyone's in this league.

This has been proved in recent weeks and I see no reason why this run can't continue. Palace were my most profitable team last season. I backed them in the first half of the season and got rewarded with great prices on their cup run and league games. Then took them on in the last 10 games. They are a club that are constantly under-rated as they don't spend money. This means they are always one of the favorites for relegation, yet they haven't been outside of the top two divisions since 1977. This means that you usually get good prices on them.

Lay Bolton at 1.67 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

For a bit of fun this weekend I looked at players who are in for and scoring goals

Charlie Austin - 10 goals in 9 games (Burnley v Millwall)
Jordan Rhodes - 5 goals in 5 games (Charlton v Blackburn)
Glenn Murray - 5 goals in 5 games (Bolton v Crystal Palace)

Treble with Coral is over 18/1


#ToiletRollAcca

It doesn't pay the 6 figures this weekend, but it comes in at over 19,000/1 with Victor Chandler

Leicester v Hull - 23rd September 2012

Having looked at this match for a few days now I still can't understand the prices. Leicester have a 100% home record, but they haven't been entirely convincing in those games. Hull on the other hand are scoring goals for fun at the moment, 10 in their last 3 games.

There was a lot of confidence behind Leicester last season, after the money that they spent, however they failed to deliver. I don't believe that they are any better now than in May. Hull have defiantly improved from last season. Steve Bruce has come in and brought his brand of attacking football with him. I rate Bruce highly at this level from my time watching Palace under him.

These two sides are closely matched, with Hull potentially better in the long term. That's why I would have Leicester nearer the 2.30 mark.

Lay Leicester at 2.12 - Betfair 

Peterborough v Wolves - 22nd September 2012

As I said in my pre-season comments, Peterborough are going down! 6 played 6 lost. I haven't backed them to lose any of their games so far as I didn't realise that they are potentially the worst team in Championship history. We may not get many more opportunities to take them on at decent prices, so I have to take the chance this weekend.

In my last two write-ups I mentioned the importance of looking ahead to the way league tables will form. These sides will be either end of the table, Peterborough likely bottom two, Wolves top 6. Therefore I give Wolves a minimum 50% chance of winning this game, so any price above evens has to be taken.

Wolves have won their last two games and with Ebanks-Blake and Doyle in their side they should have too much. Add into that the fact that Wolves have never lost at London Road and this bet just has to be taken.

Back Wolves at 2.25 - William Hill

The Championship 18th & 19th September 2012

It’s a tough midweek fixture list to call and I toyed with the idea of laying Leeds and Forest, on the basis that they were maybe a little short. However I have decided against this, so won’t me having a main bet from my Championship bank on this round of fixtures.

I will as usual be having the #ToiletRollAcca and a little treble to keep the evening interesting. For the treble I’ve looked at the both teams to score market:

Peterborough v Bristol City

Peterborough always have considered if you are looking for over 2.5 goals or Both Teams to Score. The home side have already conceded 12 goals in their 5 games this season, including a 5-2 defeat at Burnley on Saturday. They may try to shut up shop on tonight but I cannot see them keeping a clean sheet against a Bristol City, who admittedly have score in their previous 2 away games but have scored 11 at home. They’ve had two tough away games at Forest and Barnsley (unbeaten at home this season). I believe that this is a perfect opportunity for them to pick up their first goal and potentially point on the road this season.

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

Rather surprisingly Palace have scored in every game they’ve played this season. They seemingly have started to get the balance right between attack and defence, and with players like Zaha, Williams and Bolasie they are looking a lot more balanced in midfield. Nottingham Forest have had score draws in both their away games this season. They like to keep the ball; can score spectacular goals with players like Cox and McGugan, a proven goal scorer in Billy Sharp. With the Palace defence still looking shaky from set pieces I feel Forest will score and the likely result is another away score draw. This would also be Palace’s first draw of the season.

Ipswich v Wolves

Ipswich already have two score draws at home this season and conceded 11 goals in their 5 games so far. Wolves are slowly improving but the defensive frailties are still there, they’ve lost both their away games so far conceding 4 goals. Michael Chopra will always be a threat and with him in your side you’ve always got a good chance of a goal.

Both Teams to Score in those 3 games pays over 4/1 with Stan James

#ToiletRollAcca

As I said earlier this is a tough round of fixtures call, there are a large number of away sides priced at under 2/1. Those prices don’t really interest me and I fancy a larger than average number of draws. With that in mind I’ll be backing the below accumulator at over 300,000/1.

Birmingham v Bolton – Birmingham

Blackburn v Barnsley – Blackburn

Derby v Charlton – Draw

Leeds v Hull – Hull

Millwall v Cardiff – Draw

Peterborough v Bristol City – Draw

Watford v Brighton – Draw

Blackpool v Middlesbrough – Blackpool

Crystal Palace v Nottm Forest – Draw

Ipswich v Wolves – Draw

Leicester v Burnley – Draw

Sheff Wed v Huddersfield -Draw

I will not be having anywhere near the usual amount of money I put on my Match Odds singles and advise absolute minimum stakes on these bets.

The Championship 15th September 2012

Hull v Millwall

Both these sides won their last matches 3-1. Hull beat a Bolton side who haven't completly clicked yet. Millwall were impressive in their win over Middlesbrough, keeping 57% of the ball and scoring with 3 of their 6 shots on target. 'Boro started slowly, and Millwall went 2-0 up inside 35 minutes.

Hull have made some good signings for this season, and if they can all play together I expect them to be a top 8 side. I think Millwall will be safe in mid-table, therefore anything above even money for the home side is value.

Back Hull 2.10 - General

Middlesbrough v Ipswich

As stated above Middlesbrough were poor in the the 1st half of their match at Millwall last week. The Den is never an easy place to go especially when you've had a midweek trip to Gillingham and have to be back down south for an early kick-off.

I think too much is being made of that result with the odds available, 'Boro have won both their home games this season. They have a few injuries but I don't particularly rate Ipswich. They were awful at Blackpool and despite their superior head to head record in this fixture I feel that odds of 5/4 are too big based on where I feel these two sides will finish.

Back Middlesbrough 2.25 - General

Nottingham Forest v Birmingham

Forest have impressed me more than I thought this season but having laid them twice and backing them once, all three times for a profit, I think today is a day to take them on again. Birmingham haven't really found their feet this season but with the players they have I feel it's only a matter of time before they do.

Like my other plays today a lot of this bet is looking forward to where I feel teams will end the season. These two teams won't be too far away from each other but I'm happy to take on Forest, especially now that Birmingham have signed Leroy Lita.

Lay Nottingham Forest 2.22 - Betfair

The Championship Saturday 1st September 2012

It's been a good start to The Championship season with 3 from 3 coming in. Two lays of Forest at Huddersfield and Bolton (one of them was late on  twitter) and Middlesbrough to beat Palace. Hopefully this run can continue this weekend.

Nottingham Forest v Charlton Athletic

Both these side have had good starts to the season, picking up 7 points. I said in my pre-season review that I thought Forest were over-rated and I was going to take them on in the early weeks (which has paid well after laying them twice). However they are turning into a decent footballing side. They are keeping hold of the ball and that should help them, especially at home. Their main issue has been the failure to put away the numerous chances they create. They have now addressed that with the signing of Billy Sharp.

Charlton have continued from last season, I can't fault their start, but I feel that they will be in for a tough time at the City Ground, spending large amounts of time without the ball and the home side carving out many chances.

I was expecting Forest to be 1.9x so the 2.0x on Betfair looks like value

Nottingham Forest to win 2.06 - Betfair

Burnley v Brighton

My question for this match is 'Are Brighton better than Burnley?' At the moment my answer is no. Brighton create plenty of chances and put 5 past Barnsley, a team I think will be in the bottom two come May, but didn't score in their opening two fixtures.

Burnley have lost their last two, but these were both away from home. At Middlesbrough they were beaten by two 'wonder' goals in the last 11 minutes. Admittedly they were out at Huddersfield and the form of that result will not really be seen until later in the season. I have a feeling that Huddersfield could be very strong at home.

Brighton could go here and make my tip look stupid but I cannot see why Brighton are under 3.50 here.

Lay Brighton at up to 3.45 - Betfair