It's that time of year when everyone says "they need to win, so they will win..." This normally creates some good betting opportunities as teams don't win simply because they 'need' to. With that in mind I'm laying four who need to win for various reasons this weekend and keeping the reasoning simple.
Leicester City v Watford
Leicester aren't that good, they're defiantly not good enough to be 2.0x in this match. They have one win in 11 going back to the 2nd March! Watford have been inconsistent of late but they are still in better from than The Foxes. Leicester should be a minimum of 2.3x here so they have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.06 - Betfair
Blackburn Rovers v Crystal Palace
I want Palace to win this but I just don't think they will. They are looking scared at the moment and seriously lacking in confidence. For them to be given a 37% chance of winning this is just ridiculous. Blackburn aren't a great side but they have won 3 of their last 6, compared to a Palace side who haven't won in 7 and 2 away win since November. I would have Palace priced around the 3.10 mark minimum.
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.64 - Betfair
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town
This game is priced up on the belief that Bristol City just don't care and Huddersfield 'have' to win. That may be true but do they really have a 40% chance of winning this? My answer is no so I'm taking them on.
Lay Huddersfield Town at 2.50 - Betfair
Leeds United v Brighton
Brighton have won 3 of their last 10, admittedly they were impressive last weekend but does that really give them a 42.74% chance of winning this? Yes, Leeds may have nothing to play for but they've won 2 from 3 under Brian McDermott and I'm sure he or the Elland Road crowd will not be happy if they roll over for Brighton.
Lay Brighton at 2.34 - Betfair
*Bet365 are offering 7.67 on all of those lays coming in using their Double Chance coupon
#ToiletRollAcca
Running out of time to land the life changing bet but I'll keep going. This weekend BetVictor are offering over 580,000/1
Watford
Blackburn
Cardiff
Birmingham
Derby
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Leeds
Peterborough
Millwall v Forest - Draw
Barnsley v Hull - Draw
Bristol City v Huddersfield - Draw
Thursday 25 April 2013
Saturday 20 April 2013
The Championship - 20th April
This year just isn't going to plan in the football, my Championship bank is currently sitting at -33.45% after ending 2012 at +128.75.
I'm hoping that all my luck hasn't been used up on the horses after successful Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, but winners are needed quickly, three winning weekends now is the order and that's the plan.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been awful of late, they don't even look like scoring, however Leicester have been just as bad. Palace have made me a lot of money this season when backing them at home at odds against. The come into this game priced up as underdogs and I just can't be having that.
It's do or die really, a draw is probably a better result for Palace than Leicester, but a defeat for Palace and I think they'll miss out on the play-offs. If they win then I think they make them. This is going to come down to the first goal and with the leagues top scorer plus a £15million winger Palace should always be dangerous. Whoever gets it will go on to win the game in my opinion.
Palace have been better than Leicester for the majority of the season and they haven't become a bad side, they just seem to have no confidence since Brighton thrashed them. I have this game priced up at H-2.30 D-3.35 A-3.75. At the prices Palace are the value and have to be backed.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.82 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays over 170,00/1 with Bet365
Huddersfield
Brighton
Watford
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Draw - Burnley v Cardiff
Draw - Sheff. Wed v Ipswich
Draw - Birmingham v Leeds
Draw - Derby v Peterborough
Draw - Forest v Barnsley
I'm hoping that all my luck hasn't been used up on the horses after successful Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, but winners are needed quickly, three winning weekends now is the order and that's the plan.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been awful of late, they don't even look like scoring, however Leicester have been just as bad. Palace have made me a lot of money this season when backing them at home at odds against. The come into this game priced up as underdogs and I just can't be having that.
It's do or die really, a draw is probably a better result for Palace than Leicester, but a defeat for Palace and I think they'll miss out on the play-offs. If they win then I think they make them. This is going to come down to the first goal and with the leagues top scorer plus a £15million winger Palace should always be dangerous. Whoever gets it will go on to win the game in my opinion.
Palace have been better than Leicester for the majority of the season and they haven't become a bad side, they just seem to have no confidence since Brighton thrashed them. I have this game priced up at H-2.30 D-3.35 A-3.75. At the prices Palace are the value and have to be backed.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.82 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays over 170,00/1 with Bet365
Huddersfield
Brighton
Watford
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Draw - Burnley v Cardiff
Draw - Sheff. Wed v Ipswich
Draw - Birmingham v Leeds
Draw - Derby v Peterborough
Draw - Forest v Barnsley
Friday 12 April 2013
The Championship - 12th & 13th April
2013 has been a terrible year for football so far for the highs of +128% on New Years Eve I now find myself having to dip into my initial bank for the 1st time since that start of the season after dropping into the -%. So some winner are need to get back on track and beat the banks.
Leicester City v Birmingham City
When Birmingham cam to Palace the home side were awful. Birmingham ran out 4-0 winners that day. For that game Palace were priced at 1.83 and it's for that reason I have to place this bet. Palace are in better for than Leicester, just, with Leicester having no wins in eight. They haven't kept a clean sheet in eight and the goals have started to dry up, they haven't scored more than one in their last eight either.
Palace are also higher up the league table and have a better home record. Despite the above two points Leicester are priced shorter than Palace were. I can't see the reason for that, other than the belief that teams can buy their way out of this league.
Birmingham are a good side who struggled to adapt to this league, they have some excellent players and are now starting to show a bit of what they are capable of. With everything considered Leicester have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester at 1.74 - Betfair
Wolves v Huddersfield
Two sides who sit side by side in the league on the same amount of points is always games that I like to look at. When I look at these I normal start with the prices at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75 and take it from there. Both these sides are probably better than their league position suggests however the form table shows that Wolves are moving in the direction they should be. Four wins in the last six has given them hope of avoiding the drop and with the players they have they should so it, however they must win on Saturday.
I the season was to start again on Saturday I would rank these two sides a long way apart, I think Wolves are easily top eight quality and would have Huddersfield in around 15th position. Therefore If I was going to price it up then I would have Wolves nearer the 2.00 mark. They haven't shown that they are worse than Huddersfield and their recent form suggests that that are better. therefore I think it's worth backing them to continue their improvement.
Back Wolves at 2.25 - BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
This weekend accumulator pays over 187,000/1 with Bet365
Leicester City v Birmingham City
When Birmingham cam to Palace the home side were awful. Birmingham ran out 4-0 winners that day. For that game Palace were priced at 1.83 and it's for that reason I have to place this bet. Palace are in better for than Leicester, just, with Leicester having no wins in eight. They haven't kept a clean sheet in eight and the goals have started to dry up, they haven't scored more than one in their last eight either.
Palace are also higher up the league table and have a better home record. Despite the above two points Leicester are priced shorter than Palace were. I can't see the reason for that, other than the belief that teams can buy their way out of this league.
Birmingham are a good side who struggled to adapt to this league, they have some excellent players and are now starting to show a bit of what they are capable of. With everything considered Leicester have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester at 1.74 - Betfair
Wolves v Huddersfield
Two sides who sit side by side in the league on the same amount of points is always games that I like to look at. When I look at these I normal start with the prices at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75 and take it from there. Both these sides are probably better than their league position suggests however the form table shows that Wolves are moving in the direction they should be. Four wins in the last six has given them hope of avoiding the drop and with the players they have they should so it, however they must win on Saturday.
I the season was to start again on Saturday I would rank these two sides a long way apart, I think Wolves are easily top eight quality and would have Huddersfield in around 15th position. Therefore If I was going to price it up then I would have Wolves nearer the 2.00 mark. They haven't shown that they are worse than Huddersfield and their recent form suggests that that are better. therefore I think it's worth backing them to continue their improvement.
Back Wolves at 2.25 - BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
This weekend accumulator pays over 187,000/1 with Bet365
Saturday 6 April 2013
The Championship - 6th April
2013 has been an awful year on the football for me and I now find my Championship bank not in profit for the first time this season. I now have 5 weeks left to beat the banks interest rate, so I need two more winners than losers in that time. I'm confident that I can do it based on my for in the first half of the season.
Fortunately this year hasn't been all bad, I've had a profitable Australian Open, Six Nations, Cheltenham Festival and Aintree has done me well this week.
Birmingham City v Millwall
I sided with Birmingham last on Monday and they capitulated in the 1st half hour against Wolves by going 3-0 down. They managed to fight back to 2-3 in that game and will hopefully take heart from that and put in a performance here. Before that defeat they were on a three game winning run. Their form this year has seen them climb away from relegation trouble, a win on Monday would have given them an outside chance of the play-offs.
Millwall's form has been patchy in 2013, they started badly but have improved as their cup run went on. They now have a semi-final next week so a few minds may be on that especially as relegation looks to be staved of this year.
The odds suggest that Millwall have the slightly better side, however league position and current form doesn't show this.
Back Birmingham City at 2.38 - BetVictor
Brighton v Leicester City
I can't work out why Brighton are priced larger than 2.25 for this game. Leicester may have the largest wage bill in the league but that's no use when you're bottom of the form table with one win in ten and you're struggling to score goals.
Brighton are better than Leicester, they have better players and in Ulloa they seem to have found a goalscorer. Brighton are on a run of two defeats in eleven, having won five of those. Their high number of draws this season is a cause for concern but a lot of that is due to their wastefulness in front of goal.
A win from Brighton today and they'll almost certainly be in the play-offs barring a disaster final four games and these odds look to high.
Back Brighton at 2.48 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays out at over 90,000/1 with BetVictor this weekend.
Fortunately this year hasn't been all bad, I've had a profitable Australian Open, Six Nations, Cheltenham Festival and Aintree has done me well this week.
Birmingham City v Millwall
I sided with Birmingham last on Monday and they capitulated in the 1st half hour against Wolves by going 3-0 down. They managed to fight back to 2-3 in that game and will hopefully take heart from that and put in a performance here. Before that defeat they were on a three game winning run. Their form this year has seen them climb away from relegation trouble, a win on Monday would have given them an outside chance of the play-offs.
Millwall's form has been patchy in 2013, they started badly but have improved as their cup run went on. They now have a semi-final next week so a few minds may be on that especially as relegation looks to be staved of this year.
The odds suggest that Millwall have the slightly better side, however league position and current form doesn't show this.
Back Birmingham City at 2.38 - BetVictor
Brighton v Leicester City
I can't work out why Brighton are priced larger than 2.25 for this game. Leicester may have the largest wage bill in the league but that's no use when you're bottom of the form table with one win in ten and you're struggling to score goals.
Brighton are better than Leicester, they have better players and in Ulloa they seem to have found a goalscorer. Brighton are on a run of two defeats in eleven, having won five of those. Their high number of draws this season is a cause for concern but a lot of that is due to their wastefulness in front of goal.
A win from Brighton today and they'll almost certainly be in the play-offs barring a disaster final four games and these odds look to high.
Back Brighton at 2.48 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays out at over 90,000/1 with BetVictor this weekend.
Friday 5 April 2013
Aintree - Day 3
Managed to get the clean sweep at Aintree on Friday, but that was a card where if you kept it simple you would have found the winners. Saturday looks a lot tougher, but at the prices one winner should bring a profit.
1:45 Aintree - Novices Hurdle
The one that interests me in this race is Utopie Des Bordes. She raced well for most of her last outing at Cheltenham over 3 miles on soft ground. That race was won by At Fishers Cross, who was impressive in winning here on Friday. She drops back in trip here to 2m4f and has good ground which I think will help here here. She's in receipt of 5lbs due to the fillies' and mare allowance, so taking Dodging Bullets out of the equation she should have the beating of these. Therefore if she runs to form and Dodging Bullets continues to regress then she has a real chance at a good price
Back Utopie Des Bordes at 6.0 - General
2:50 Aintree - Liverpool Hurdle
To say I've followed this horse over the cliff would be an understatement, I'm currently drowning at the bottom of a waterfall after backing Grands Crus since his Feltham victory back in 2011. He's now been switched back to hurdling and flopping as a chaser. This will probably be the last time I back him if he doesn't win, but before you write me off as a loon here's my reasoning.
As a hurdler his 2011 form was solid. he finished 2nd twice to the best staying hurdler I've ever seen, Big Bucks. On that form he would have won this years World Hurdle, which was won by the favourite in this race, Solwhit, who I backed at 10/1.
On the belief that he can run to that form again and chasing just wasn't his thing I have to give him one last chance.
Back Grands Crus at 7.0 - General
4:15 Aintree - The Grand National
Shock horror I'm getting involved in a big handicap! These aren't really my kind of races but you can't blog about Aintree and not try and give out the winner of this race. I'm going to keep it simple otherwise I could make a case for 39 of these.
Chicago Grey stays longer than the mother in law however his tactics of running from the back my cause him issues as it did last year when he was brought down. He looked like he was taking to the fences. I think he is one of the class horses in the race and he comes here off a lower mark than last year. The trainer has won this race before and this horse has been aimed at this race all year. If he's still on his feet three out I can see him pulling clear in the final furlong and making it look easy.
Back Chicago Grey at 13.0 - General
It looks very much a day for small stakes and there is no need to blow the profits made so far from this meeting. A £1 each-way Patent (£14 total stake) pays around £830 if they all win. However if one wins it will return a profit.
I will also be having win singles on each of these for level stakes.
1:45 Aintree - Novices Hurdle
The one that interests me in this race is Utopie Des Bordes. She raced well for most of her last outing at Cheltenham over 3 miles on soft ground. That race was won by At Fishers Cross, who was impressive in winning here on Friday. She drops back in trip here to 2m4f and has good ground which I think will help here here. She's in receipt of 5lbs due to the fillies' and mare allowance, so taking Dodging Bullets out of the equation she should have the beating of these. Therefore if she runs to form and Dodging Bullets continues to regress then she has a real chance at a good price
Back Utopie Des Bordes at 6.0 - General
2:50 Aintree - Liverpool Hurdle
To say I've followed this horse over the cliff would be an understatement, I'm currently drowning at the bottom of a waterfall after backing Grands Crus since his Feltham victory back in 2011. He's now been switched back to hurdling and flopping as a chaser. This will probably be the last time I back him if he doesn't win, but before you write me off as a loon here's my reasoning.
As a hurdler his 2011 form was solid. he finished 2nd twice to the best staying hurdler I've ever seen, Big Bucks. On that form he would have won this years World Hurdle, which was won by the favourite in this race, Solwhit, who I backed at 10/1.
On the belief that he can run to that form again and chasing just wasn't his thing I have to give him one last chance.
Back Grands Crus at 7.0 - General
4:15 Aintree - The Grand National
Shock horror I'm getting involved in a big handicap! These aren't really my kind of races but you can't blog about Aintree and not try and give out the winner of this race. I'm going to keep it simple otherwise I could make a case for 39 of these.
Chicago Grey stays longer than the mother in law however his tactics of running from the back my cause him issues as it did last year when he was brought down. He looked like he was taking to the fences. I think he is one of the class horses in the race and he comes here off a lower mark than last year. The trainer has won this race before and this horse has been aimed at this race all year. If he's still on his feet three out I can see him pulling clear in the final furlong and making it look easy.
Back Chicago Grey at 13.0 - General
It looks very much a day for small stakes and there is no need to blow the profits made so far from this meeting. A £1 each-way Patent (£14 total stake) pays around £830 if they all win. However if one wins it will return a profit.
I will also be having win singles on each of these for level stakes.
Aintree - Day 2
I got two winner and two thrids yesterday to bring up a profit. However some of my followers backed my selections in each-way 4-folds and got some tidy profits, I recieved this email today;
Hahaha bet £100 each way yesterday on the 4 horses £670 back!! ;) spunked it in a strip bar last night!! Doh!! loooool
Today poses some interesting questions with two odds-on favourites but I'm going to try and keep it simple as over-complicating things would just make it more difficult than it needs to be.
2:00 Aintree - Novices' Hurdle
My Tent Or Yours is a horse I like but I had to take it on at Cheltenham as I thought Champagne Fever had better claims at a bigger price. It comes here and on form and ratings it looks like it should win this doing handstands.
I just can't really find anyhting to oppose it with. Zuider Zee is up in class and doesn't look like it can cause an upset here. Forgotten Voice is the main danger but it's a hard horse to settle and that may be an issue of a mudduling pace. If he runs to form you still need MTOY to run well below par for him to beat him.
My only real concern is if MTOY has had too much racing this year, I think he would have had enough rest since Cheltenham and The New One showed yesterday that you can run a big race, as a novice, after Cheltenham if you have the class.
Back My Tent Or Yours at 1.44 - General
2:30 Aintree - Novices' Chase
I was convinced that Dynaste would win at the festival and it still hurst that his 2nd place cost me a nice payout on my 80/1 accumulator. He looked the winner in-running, touched 1/3 but then was out battled up the hill, when he found nothing after the last.
The key for me in this though is the impressive performance of Captain Conan yesterday. Captain Conan finished 5th at Cheltenham, just over a length behind Dynaste. To me that shows that The Jewsons wasn't really an enrergy sapping race, so I'm not worried by this coming just three weeks later.
I believe that Dyanste ran below par that day as on all the form he has shown you would of expected him to power up the hill and win that by 3-4 lengths. if you belive that he ran below par and he can be back to form in this then the price is massive value. Even factoring in that good ground isn't his best I still have to back at the prices.
Back Dynaste at 3.05 - Betfair
3:05 Aintree - Melling Chase
I've ummed and arred over ti srace for a week or so now, there are so many ways you can look at it! Flemenstar is a horse that I never fancied over 3m+ as he cruises in his races but then empties in the last four furlongs, so 2m4f looks his best trip.
Cue Card is a classy horse and it's form was boosted yesterday by First Leuitenant winning. The drop back in trip has helped after he finished 20 lenghts behind Long Run in the King George.
However having said all of this Sprinter Sacre has just looked class over fences. He beat Cue Card in The Arkle last year and now they matchup again in over a longer trip. I'm glad that he is taking this route as it could be easy to stay in his comfort zone of two miles. Henderson does like to train his horses for speed rather than stamina but that doesn't really look to be much of an issue here. They'll be going ridiculousy quick in this as it's a flat track and good ground. I can just see that playing into Sprinter Sacres handsust think he'll have them all working to stay with him three out adn if he doesn't make mistakes they'll won't be able to catch him if Geraghty has to give him a shake of the reigns.
In short he's 1.36 to win this however after the race the most likely thing we'll be saying is that he should of been 1.20.
Back Sprinter Sacre at 1.36 - Betfair
The win treble on these three pays a little over 9/2 (5.59) with BetVictor, and they'll match your first bet upto with a free bet of up to £25 here
Hahaha bet £100 each way yesterday on the 4 horses £670 back!! ;) spunked it in a strip bar last night!! Doh!! loooool
Today poses some interesting questions with two odds-on favourites but I'm going to try and keep it simple as over-complicating things would just make it more difficult than it needs to be.
2:00 Aintree - Novices' Hurdle
My Tent Or Yours is a horse I like but I had to take it on at Cheltenham as I thought Champagne Fever had better claims at a bigger price. It comes here and on form and ratings it looks like it should win this doing handstands.
I just can't really find anyhting to oppose it with. Zuider Zee is up in class and doesn't look like it can cause an upset here. Forgotten Voice is the main danger but it's a hard horse to settle and that may be an issue of a mudduling pace. If he runs to form you still need MTOY to run well below par for him to beat him.
My only real concern is if MTOY has had too much racing this year, I think he would have had enough rest since Cheltenham and The New One showed yesterday that you can run a big race, as a novice, after Cheltenham if you have the class.
Back My Tent Or Yours at 1.44 - General
2:30 Aintree - Novices' Chase
I was convinced that Dynaste would win at the festival and it still hurst that his 2nd place cost me a nice payout on my 80/1 accumulator. He looked the winner in-running, touched 1/3 but then was out battled up the hill, when he found nothing after the last.
The key for me in this though is the impressive performance of Captain Conan yesterday. Captain Conan finished 5th at Cheltenham, just over a length behind Dynaste. To me that shows that The Jewsons wasn't really an enrergy sapping race, so I'm not worried by this coming just three weeks later.
I believe that Dyanste ran below par that day as on all the form he has shown you would of expected him to power up the hill and win that by 3-4 lengths. if you belive that he ran below par and he can be back to form in this then the price is massive value. Even factoring in that good ground isn't his best I still have to back at the prices.
Back Dynaste at 3.05 - Betfair
3:05 Aintree - Melling Chase
I've ummed and arred over ti srace for a week or so now, there are so many ways you can look at it! Flemenstar is a horse that I never fancied over 3m+ as he cruises in his races but then empties in the last four furlongs, so 2m4f looks his best trip.
Cue Card is a classy horse and it's form was boosted yesterday by First Leuitenant winning. The drop back in trip has helped after he finished 20 lenghts behind Long Run in the King George.
However having said all of this Sprinter Sacre has just looked class over fences. He beat Cue Card in The Arkle last year and now they matchup again in over a longer trip. I'm glad that he is taking this route as it could be easy to stay in his comfort zone of two miles. Henderson does like to train his horses for speed rather than stamina but that doesn't really look to be much of an issue here. They'll be going ridiculousy quick in this as it's a flat track and good ground. I can just see that playing into Sprinter Sacres handsust think he'll have them all working to stay with him three out adn if he doesn't make mistakes they'll won't be able to catch him if Geraghty has to give him a shake of the reigns.
In short he's 1.36 to win this however after the race the most likely thing we'll be saying is that he should of been 1.20.
Back Sprinter Sacre at 1.36 - Betfair
The win treble on these three pays a little over 9/2 (5.59) with BetVictor, and they'll match your first bet upto with a free bet of up to £25 here
Wednesday 3 April 2013
Aintree - Day 1
It always surprises me how many people think the Grand National meeting is just one race on a Saturday afternoon. Somebody actually said to me the other day that they can't wait to see Sprinter Sacre in the National! We have three days consisting of some top grade one action and Thursday is the best of them.
I'm making the trip up to Liverpool for this so I'm hoping like Cheltenham I can come back having made another profit.
2:00 Aintree - Juvenile Hurdle
With Aintree coming only three weeks after Cheltenham I'm inclined to look for horses that missed the festival or didn't have particularly hard races. For that reason I'm against Rolling Star here. I am instead going for a horse he beat at Cheltenham back in January.
Irish Saint has shown his best form in this country on flat tracks with both his wins coming at Kempton. With him missing the festival and coming straight here I think he's the value pick in what looks to be a head to head between the top two in the market.
Back Irish Saint at 4.30 - Betfair
2:30 Aintree - Betfred Bowl
This race is all about Silviniaco Conti. Many fancied him for The Gold Cup, I wasn't one of those people. That race was only 20 days ago and I feel that a strongly run race on soft ground isn't a great prep run for this. Especially after falling last time out.
I back First Lieutenant in The Ryanair and he finished a distant 2nd to Cue Card. Cue Card is a classy horse and when it goes right for him he's very impressive. I don't think that The Ryanair would have taken as much out of First Lieutenant as The Gold Cup took out of Silviniaco Conti. If that proves correct then First Lieutenant should win this race.
Another factor to consider is the horses coming here fresh. Quito De La Roque is a course and distance winner, comes here fresh and off the back of a winning run.
With all that in mind I think it's worth taking on the favourite with the Gigginstown pair.
Back First Lieutenant at 4.60 for 72.29% of Total Stake - Betfair
Back Quito De La Roque at 12.0 for 27.71% of Total Stake - Betfair
If one of them win it pays out at 3.32
3:05 Aintree - Aintree Hurdle
This has the potential to be the race of the season so it's difficult to know where to start, so I'm going through them in racecard order;
Countrywide Flame
Consistent horse and on ratings is the second best in the race, however it's now been involved in three tough races on the trot and I feel the Champion Hurdle will take its toll.
Grandouet
This horse travels well and has so much promise but can't be trusted.
Oscar Whiskey
Has won this race the last two year, beating Thousand Stars by a neck each time. However I think that the World Hurdle after a gruelling 3m on heavy in January will have taken it's toll here.
Prospect Wells
Not good enough on all known form.
Raya Star
Already beaten by Zarkandar and Oscar Whiskey this season so hard see form being reversed and was also very disappointing last time out.
Saphir River
No Chance
The New One
This horse is class and he proved it at Cheltenham. However I don't want to be backing at the prices. He's already had five races this season and for a novice that may show.
Thousand Stars
Beaten a neck in this for the last two years and this race has been the aim all season. He skipped the festival with this in mind. Good ground seems to bring his best performances and he hasn't had that in Ireland this year. I think he'll come here and put in his best performance.
Zarkandar
Another Nicholls who was tipped by many at The Festival, however I just couldn't see it on form lines.I'm not even sure he gets this trip. He weakened at the end of this years Champion Hurdle and fell in this race last year when put under pressure.
With the form in mind I and a fresh horse I just can't see why Thousand stars is that price.
Back Thousand Stars at 13.5 - Betfair
4:50 Aintree - Novices' Chase
Captain Conan was travelling like a dream at Cheltenham but completely faded up this hill. This flatter track should bring the best out of him. He was 2nd to Darlan here last year but finished seven lengths clear of the third. If Cheltenham didn't take to much out of him and it was just the hill that got to him last time then he could make a mockery of these odds.
Back Captain Conan at 2.70 - Betfair
I'm making the trip up to Liverpool for this so I'm hoping like Cheltenham I can come back having made another profit.
2:00 Aintree - Juvenile Hurdle
With Aintree coming only three weeks after Cheltenham I'm inclined to look for horses that missed the festival or didn't have particularly hard races. For that reason I'm against Rolling Star here. I am instead going for a horse he beat at Cheltenham back in January.
Irish Saint has shown his best form in this country on flat tracks with both his wins coming at Kempton. With him missing the festival and coming straight here I think he's the value pick in what looks to be a head to head between the top two in the market.
Back Irish Saint at 4.30 - Betfair
2:30 Aintree - Betfred Bowl
This race is all about Silviniaco Conti. Many fancied him for The Gold Cup, I wasn't one of those people. That race was only 20 days ago and I feel that a strongly run race on soft ground isn't a great prep run for this. Especially after falling last time out.
I back First Lieutenant in The Ryanair and he finished a distant 2nd to Cue Card. Cue Card is a classy horse and when it goes right for him he's very impressive. I don't think that The Ryanair would have taken as much out of First Lieutenant as The Gold Cup took out of Silviniaco Conti. If that proves correct then First Lieutenant should win this race.
Another factor to consider is the horses coming here fresh. Quito De La Roque is a course and distance winner, comes here fresh and off the back of a winning run.
With all that in mind I think it's worth taking on the favourite with the Gigginstown pair.
Back First Lieutenant at 4.60 for 72.29% of Total Stake - Betfair
Back Quito De La Roque at 12.0 for 27.71% of Total Stake - Betfair
If one of them win it pays out at 3.32
3:05 Aintree - Aintree Hurdle
This has the potential to be the race of the season so it's difficult to know where to start, so I'm going through them in racecard order;
Countrywide Flame
Consistent horse and on ratings is the second best in the race, however it's now been involved in three tough races on the trot and I feel the Champion Hurdle will take its toll.
Grandouet
This horse travels well and has so much promise but can't be trusted.
Oscar Whiskey
Has won this race the last two year, beating Thousand Stars by a neck each time. However I think that the World Hurdle after a gruelling 3m on heavy in January will have taken it's toll here.
Prospect Wells
Not good enough on all known form.
Raya Star
Already beaten by Zarkandar and Oscar Whiskey this season so hard see form being reversed and was also very disappointing last time out.
Saphir River
No Chance
The New One
This horse is class and he proved it at Cheltenham. However I don't want to be backing at the prices. He's already had five races this season and for a novice that may show.
Thousand Stars
Beaten a neck in this for the last two years and this race has been the aim all season. He skipped the festival with this in mind. Good ground seems to bring his best performances and he hasn't had that in Ireland this year. I think he'll come here and put in his best performance.
Zarkandar
Another Nicholls who was tipped by many at The Festival, however I just couldn't see it on form lines.I'm not even sure he gets this trip. He weakened at the end of this years Champion Hurdle and fell in this race last year when put under pressure.
With the form in mind I and a fresh horse I just can't see why Thousand stars is that price.
Back Thousand Stars at 13.5 - Betfair
4:50 Aintree - Novices' Chase
Captain Conan was travelling like a dream at Cheltenham but completely faded up this hill. This flatter track should bring the best out of him. He was 2nd to Darlan here last year but finished seven lengths clear of the third. If Cheltenham didn't take to much out of him and it was just the hill that got to him last time then he could make a mockery of these odds.
Back Captain Conan at 2.70 - Betfair
Monday 1 April 2013
The Championship - 1st & 2nd April
Friday and Saturday brought a very disappointing end to this months football with 93rd minute equalisers and Bolton getting beaten from 2-0 up. Thankfully I was on form with the horses after backing Tangerine Trees at 4.10 and St. Nicholas Abbey at 4.40.
This months has to be a good month if the banks are going to beaten so I'm hoping that I get the luck that so far hasn't really been there in 2013.
Barnsley v Leicester City
The league table shows that Leicester are superior to Barnsley, however they are underachieving again. After spending large sums of money on average players they now look like they are going to miss the play-offs. The goals have dried up, they've only managed to score more than once in a game once in their last ten games. They currently sit bottom of the form table with a 0-2-4 record. In that time time they've kept no clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions.
They now travel to a Barnsley side who have won five of their last six home games, kept three clean sheets in that time and have not failed to score. The recent statistics suggest that one goal will be enough for Barnsley to get something out of this game. With that in mind I think it's worth taking Leicester on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.30 - Betfair
Birmingham City v Wolves
I'm going to take Friday's performance out of my thinking for this game. They were impressive at Palace but I don't want that to cloud my judgement. Previous to that they were on a 3-2-1 record, they are a team in form. They now sit second in the form table, but most importantly they are beginning to score goals.
Wolves are another team improving and they really need to otherwise they are down. They are currently sixth in the form table with a 3-1-2 record.
The way I'm looking at this game is on the belief that Birmingham can continue the from they are showing and avoid defeat here. Wolves now look to have some fight about them which they were missing since August, therefore I want to get the draw on my side. Wolves should be a minimum of 3.75 here whilst the Birmingham price looks about right.
Lay Wolves at 3.60 - Betfair
Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday
Bristol City's current home form is 5-1-0. Since Sean O'Driscoll has taken over they've been a revelation at home. They kept clean sheets, four in the last six at Ashton Gate, and now have a chance of staying up. However do do that they must win today. This game will be nervy and scrappy but I believe that this will come down to home advantage.
Back Bristol City at 2.58 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
The below pays out at over 32,000/1 with BetVictor.
This months has to be a good month if the banks are going to beaten so I'm hoping that I get the luck that so far hasn't really been there in 2013.
Barnsley v Leicester City
The league table shows that Leicester are superior to Barnsley, however they are underachieving again. After spending large sums of money on average players they now look like they are going to miss the play-offs. The goals have dried up, they've only managed to score more than once in a game once in their last ten games. They currently sit bottom of the form table with a 0-2-4 record. In that time time they've kept no clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions.
They now travel to a Barnsley side who have won five of their last six home games, kept three clean sheets in that time and have not failed to score. The recent statistics suggest that one goal will be enough for Barnsley to get something out of this game. With that in mind I think it's worth taking Leicester on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.30 - Betfair
Birmingham City v Wolves
I'm going to take Friday's performance out of my thinking for this game. They were impressive at Palace but I don't want that to cloud my judgement. Previous to that they were on a 3-2-1 record, they are a team in form. They now sit second in the form table, but most importantly they are beginning to score goals.
Wolves are another team improving and they really need to otherwise they are down. They are currently sixth in the form table with a 3-1-2 record.
The way I'm looking at this game is on the belief that Birmingham can continue the from they are showing and avoid defeat here. Wolves now look to have some fight about them which they were missing since August, therefore I want to get the draw on my side. Wolves should be a minimum of 3.75 here whilst the Birmingham price looks about right.
Lay Wolves at 3.60 - Betfair
Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday
Bristol City's current home form is 5-1-0. Since Sean O'Driscoll has taken over they've been a revelation at home. They kept clean sheets, four in the last six at Ashton Gate, and now have a chance of staying up. However do do that they must win today. This game will be nervy and scrappy but I believe that this will come down to home advantage.
Back Bristol City at 2.58 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
The below pays out at over 32,000/1 with BetVictor.
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