The Championship - 1st January 2013

We had a good day on Saturday with 3 from 4 singles coming in and increasing the main bank to +128.75%, which means December ended in profit and we are way ahead of the target to beat the banks. That was a good way to end the year and I feel the 1st half of the season has gone well.

We are now going into 2013 and my intention is grow continue to grow the bank but also improve the quality of my work as I've been too fearful of placing certain bets and 'argued' with myself over 0.02 difference in a price.

I am also hoping to a some new features to the site so that we have a broader range of activities going on, but for now we have a full set of  New Years Day fixtures to get through.

Warford v Charlton Athletic

The current 6 game form table sees Charlton bottom with 0 win, 3 draws and 3 defeats. Watford are sitting in 3rd place with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their one defeat came against Hull, who sit top of the form table. Watford are also 10 points and 12 places above Charlton in the league, with a game in hand.

Charlton do have a decent away record but are currently on a downward trajectory, whilst Watfords home form isn't spectacular with the 4 defeats they are defiantly a team on the up. They are starting to score goals with Troy Deeney and Matej Vydra really starting to look like a menacing partnership. Charlton aren't a big scoring side especially when they have only scored 13 goals in their 12 away games. To Charlton's credit they have only conceeded 13 in those matches, however they haven't faced a current top six side away from The Valley so far this season. I fully expect Watford to score at least 1 goal and have them down in my book to get a minimum of 2, I cannot see Charlton scoring 1 let alone 2 so this game has to go down as a home win.

If this game was played in 2 weeks time I would expect Watford to be around the 1.80 mark. They are currently being given a 51.28% chance of winning this match. I would personally give them a chance of at least 55% which would price them around 1.80.

Back Watford at 1.95 -William Hill


Crystal Palace v Wolves

I accept that Crystal Palace are on a bad run of form however Wolves form isn't great either. Wolves have won 3 and lost 3 of their last six but those 3 win are their only wins in their last 15 games. Although Palace haven't been winning they have still only lost 2 of their last 22 games. They also sit 13 places and 13 places above Wolves in the league table. It is also worth remembering that Palace have an excellent home record, they have only lost 8 of their last 50 home league games.

After the Huddersfield game I said to some friends of mine that it's not worth backing Palace at home unless they were around the even money mark as the bookies were cottoning on to them. It is worth remembering that although Palace haven't won in their last 5 games they have taken the lead in all of them and the only defeat was away to league leaders Cardiff.

If Palace had held on for another minute at Forest on Saturday and taken the 3 points they would have been priced at 1.8x for this game. I give Palace a percentage chance of around 55% (1.80) based on previous form and where these two clubs currently are. Palace's only home defeat this season came on the opening weekend when they conceded 2 goals in the last 2 minutes against Watford. Since then they have won 7 and drawn 4 which in my book means they should be odds-on for most matches at Selhurst Park.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.02 - Betfair


Sheffield Wednesday v Burnley

I backed Burnley to get a result on Saturday against Leicester, by laying Leicester at 2.38. However once Charlie Austin went off injured after 8 minutes it was clear that 1 goal from Leicester would probably be enough to win the game.

Their top scorers list this season shows the depth of the problem they'll have without Charlie Austin.

They now come up against a seemingly rejuvenated Sheffield Wednesday side who although languish 21st in the league table are 6th in the six game form table. They are currently unbeaten in 4 (3wins, 1 draw) and haven't conceded in that time.

It would seem then this is a good time for them to be playing a Burnley side who's top scorer is a doubt for the game due to injury.

Burnley have 1 win in their last 7 and have only kept 1 clean sheet in that time (against a Derby side who struggle away).

I feel that with the current for of these two sides and with Charlie Austin out their is defiantly not too much between these sides and would have Sheffield Wednesday at the 2.30 mark. I feel it is worth taking a chance on Sheffield Wednesday to continue their run and back them here.

Back Sheffield Wednesday at 2.50 - Boylesports


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Troy Deeney (Watford v Charlton)
As stated earlier Watford are starting to score goals and it Deeney and Vydra who are scoring them. I've gone for Deeney in this as he is usually the penalty taker.

Dwight Gayle (Peterborough v Barnsley)
Peterborough are usually always good for goals and although not as prolific as they were in League One they have Dwight Gayle. He has played 8 games for Peterborough and scored 7 goals so at 2.40 offers value against bottom of the table Barnsley who have conceded an average of 1.83 goals per game on the road this season.

Billy Sharp (Blackburn v Nottingham Forest)
I was impressed by Nottingham Forest on Saturday they continued to play decent football even after the managerial changes. Billy Sharp is their top scorer this season and he is proven at this level, I feel he can score against a Blackburn side who I just don't rate at the moment.

The treble pays just under 16/1 with Bet365


#ToiletRollAcca

 It would be nice if we could start the new year with this one coming in pays a healthy 116,000/1 with BetVictor.

The Championship - 29th December 2012

I've been getting way to many draws recently with 4 of my last 9 ending that way, although at the prices I'm backing at runs like that a expected. The main bank is still up by 97.12% so I'm beating my target of beating the banks.

The chart (left) shows the ups and downs of the main bank so far this season in % terms.

We are currently on a down slope due to these draws but I'm expecting this to turn around this weekend as results start to go our way.

I'm hoping to be back up over the 120% mark after the conclusion of the New Years Day fixtures.


Bristol City v Peterborough

Peterborough have won their last 3 games but previous to that they had not won in 8 (7 defeats and a draw).  Looking at it long term I still have Peterborough down as the worst team in the league. A lot of their recent turn around has been down to the goals of Dwight Gayle and teams under-estimating them.

Another negative against Peterborough is the loss of George Thorne who has been recalled to West Brom. I don't see that much difference between these sides so I cannot understand why Peterborough are being made effective favourites. With a game like this I would price it as H2.25 D3.50 A3.75.

If it wasn't for Bristol City being a poor side as well I would back them outright, however I feel it's more sensible to take some caution with this game due to the unpredictable nature of both these sides. I cannot see Peterborough winning 4 games in a row but they could sneak a draw.

Lay Peterborough at 3.05 - Betfair


Burnley v Leicester

Again we have Leicester taking their poor away record on the road again (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats). They are constantly under-priced away from home and I don't understand the way this game is priced. Burnley haven't really been in the best form with too many draws, but they have only lost 1 of the last 7. Leicester by contrast haven't won in 4 and their 6 game record reads LWDLLD. They have also failed to score in 4 of those games. When you coming up against the leagues top goal-scorer you get the feeling you'll need to score at least 2 to win.

For that reason above I cannot be giving Leicester a  42% (2.38) chance of winning this and would give them a chance of around the 33% (3.00) mark.

Lay Leicester at 2.38 - Betfair


Middlesbrough v Blackpool

Looking at the six game form table Middlesbrough sit above Blackpool, they are also 8 places and 11 point better off in the overall league table.

Those stats would suggest that Middlesbrough are the better side however the price would have them at around Blackpool's equals. 

Middlesbrough's home record reads W9, D1, L2, that's far superior to Blackpool's away record of W4, D4, L4. Even if you do rate these sides as equal the prices should be H2.25, D3.50, A3.75. I however believe that Middelsbrough are the better side and have it priced at H2.15, D3.55, A4.00.

Back Middlesbrough at 2.30 - BetVictor

Brighton v Watford

Watford are 6th in the six game form table with Brighton sitting in 17th. Watford are 4 places and 3 points above Brighton in the league. However Brighton are again again priced up like they are far superior to the other sides in this league. Of Brighton's 12 home games this season they have won 4, drawn 6 and lost 2. That's a 33% strike rate and means they shouldn't be near even money to win at home.

Watford's away record reads W5, D2, L4. That would suggest that teams should be not be priced lower than 2.20 when Watford visit. Brighton have also only won 3 of their last 16 games, they're hardly in the form where you'd want to be backing them at near even money. Brighton should be around 2.25 for this game so at the prices on offer have to be taken on, especially as they have the joint highest Failed to Score statistic in the league with 8.

Lay Brighton at 2.08 - Betfair

The Championship - 26th December 2012

We're half-way there! 23 games down and the main bank has increased by 119.02%. I'll take that as the 1st aim of the season is to beat the banks rates. Hopefully we can kick on over the next 23 rounds of fixtures and make this a very memorable season.

I had a list of 4 games for Boxing Day however the odds have gone against me so I'm down to the one single, but it's a very tasty price.

Hull v Leicester

I remember laying Leicester when Hull visited The King Power stadium back in September. Unfortunately Leicester won that match, however as the season has progressed I'm happy to say that was the right bet to have then, despite the result.

We now have the return fixture and Hull seem massively overpriced. They have won their last 4 matches and should have beaten Palace in the match before that, ended 0-0 but they dominated the match. They currently sit 3rd in the 6 game form table, Leicester are 13th. The league table has Hull in 2nd, 7 points clear of 5th placed Leicester.

The above would suggest that these sides are of at least equal ability and with Hull's home record being superior to Leicester poor away record, I would give Hull a chance of around 44% (2.27) of winning this game.

Back Hull at 2.76 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

This bet is based on how poorly I rate the oppositions defences, as my usual list of scorers all have tough games.

Sylvan Ebanks-Blake (Wolves  v Peterborough)
Lukas Jutkiewicz (Middlesbrough v Blackburn)
Troy Deeney (Bristol City v Watford)

The Treble pays 14.16 with Boylesports and SkyBet


#ToiletRollAcca

Gutted that the Brighton v Millwall match was moved as I had that down as a draw. It really makes a difference to this bet it's down around 70,000/1 from 230,000/1.

Let's pay for our Christmas expenses with this on 70,000/1+ with BetVictor

The Championship - 22nd December 2012

Last weekend we got 3 from 4, after posting two late bets on Twitter, and if it wasn't for David Ngog coming of the bench it would have been all 4. However the main bank went up from +104.50% to +145.66%. I'm hoping for more of the same this weekend to take us into the 2nd half of the season in a very healthy position.

Birmingham City v Burnley

Birmingham have 1 win in their last 7 games, but sit next to Burnley in the 6 game form table.

I am however taking a long term view with this bet. I have been impressed by the way Birmingham have fought back in their previous two home games against Middlesbrough (won 3-2) and Crystal Palace (drew 2-2). I don't see much difference between these two sides and without the goals of Charlie Austin, Burnley could well be in a relegation battle. I expect Birmingham to finish above Burnley in May so I'm surprised to see that they've been given a 40% chance in this match. I would give them a chance of around the 45% mark (2.22).

Back Birmingham City at 2.50 - Betfair

Leicester City v Cardiff City

The league leaders travel to 5th placed Leicester City. Despite Cardiff's defeat at home to Peterborough last week they still top the 6 game form table. They have also been improving on the road recently, even though I don't currently rate Blackburn any 4-1 victory away from home has to be respected.

Leicester have a great record at home this season, (8 wins, 2 draw, 1 defeat) but at the prices they have to be taken on. The odds suggest they have 50% (2.00) chance of winning this. I see these sides of equal about ability so would therefore give Leicester a 45% (2.22) chance.

Lay Leicester City at 2.0x - Betfair

Crystal Palace v Huddersfield

Crystal Palace have only lost 8 of their last 49 home league games. That stat in itself suggests Palace should be odds-on here. Getting the correct price is the challenge and I think the best way to work that out for this weekend is to look at Huddersfields last fixture. Hull were priced up at 1.80 and won 2-0. Palace are no worse that Hull and the league table suggests they are better.

Huddersfield started the season well but their form has dropped off now, they haven't won in their last 6 games and have slipped to 17th in the table and sit bottom of the 6 game form table. Palace have lost 1 of their last 19 games and sit 2nd in the league.

The odds suggest they have around a 56% chance of winning this and I think their is a bit of value in that, based on the Hull odds from last week and Palace's home record.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.80 - Betfair

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Huddersfield)

He's scoring an average of more that a goal a game this season so it makes sense to stick with him again this week.

DJ Campbell (Ipswich v Bristol City)

Bristol City have conceded 45 goals this season and while Ipswich struggle to score I think they will in this match and if they do DJ Campbell is the most likely to get it. 

Marlon King (Birmingham v Burnley)

Marlon King is class at this level and with 13 goals this season I feel he is worth following this week.

The treble pays 8.56 with Bet365

The Championship - 15th December 2012

I had a great blog prepared for last weekend but couldn't post it due to Indian internet connections not being great. Unfortunately for the bet though Crystal Palace conceded an 89th minute equaliser from a mistake. However at the prices I've been backing Palace at this season, they only need to win less than 50% of the time. They're still my most profitable side with 8 wins from the 11 matches I've got involved in.

Hopefully some of you got involved in the cricket as bets advised on Twitter for England to win, Cook runs and England runs.

The main bank for the season currently sits at +104.50% and I'm hoping that we can add to it this weekend, just in time for Christmas.

Millwall v Leicester City

Millwall's 13 match unbeaten run came to an end at Ipswich last weekend, however they still sit 3rd in the current 6 game form table. They face a Leicester side who will certainly be challenging for automatic promotion come April.

My reason for wanting to take Leicester on in this match is due to their away record compared to that of Millwall at home. Leicester have won 3 away this season;

1. Middlesbrough - 89th minute winner
2. Huddersfield - deserved win 
3. Sheffield Wed - deserved win

The two deserved victories have come against newly promoted sides, the form of the victory at Huddersfield looked good at the time but looking at it now Huddersfield have only won 4 of their last 14. You can't take much from the win at Sheffield Wednesday, they've lost 7 in a row and only won 2 of their last 18.

Millwall have been relatively strong at home; their 3 defeats came in the early part of the season when they were struggling for form. Their defeats came against  Blackpool, Cardiff and Brighton. Those sides would all feel they had a good chance of promotion this season and played Millwall whilst in good form.

From a long term point of view Leicester deserve to be favourites, but I wouldn't give them a 42% chance of winning this match. I would give them a maximum chance of 37% (2.78) and therefore they have to be laid at 2.4x.

Lay Leicester at 2.4x - Betfair


Leeds United v Ipswich Town

Ipswich matches have cost us a few pounds recently but I'm going to get involved again. I still remember when they came to Palace and got beaten 5-0, they've also gone to Leicester and Blackpool and came away with 6-0 defeats.

The odds have these sides priced as though they are of equal ability and if this was the Leeds of 1 month ago I would have agreed. Since they got the promise of new investment they seem to have been transformed. The signing of Jerome Thomas has really improved their side. He missed the defeat at Derby but not many sides will go to Pride Park this year and get a result.

I don't think that there is too much between these two sides but Leeds are higher in my ratings. I would give Leeds a 48% (2.08) chance and therefore have to back them today at the prices.

Back Leeds United at 2.20 - William Hill


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray
I think Palace have a tough game at Birmingham today but if they do score it is very likely that it will be the man who has the best goals to games ration in the country at the moment.

Tom Ince
I was going to have Blackpool as a single, basically because I don't rate Blackburn anymore and see Berg as the wrong managerial choice. I expect Blackpool to score a couple today so it makes sense to go with their 13 goal top-scorer to get one.

Luciano Becchio
14 goals this season and coming up against the team with the worst goal difference and second worst goals against.

The Treble pays just over 11/1 with Betfred


#ToiletRollAcca

This would be the perfect weekend to get this in, especially as it pays over 230,000/1 with BetVictor

The Championship - 1st December 2012

Last week wasn't the greatest to say the least but the main bank is still up by 101.98%. From the 37 bets advised we've had 22 winners, that's a 59.45% strike rate.

Looking through this weekends list I can't see an away win but there are some decent prices around for some home wins.

Watford v Barnsley

At the start of the season I had Barnsley down as one of my relegation bets, they currently sit in 20th and are 5 points behind 19th with a 2 point advantage over the teams in the relegation zone. I think it's fair to say that they are in a relegation battle. They have put in some good performances this season, but with no wins in a 8 games and 6 defeats on the road today seems a good time to back their opponents.

Watford are starting to gel as a team after a summer of comings and goings. They currently sit 2nd in the 6 game form table. They haven't lost in their last 6 and have scored 16 goals in that time. Watford are starting to look like play-off/promotions contenders and with the ability to strengthen in January they may be a side to follow in the coming weeks.

There is a clear disparity between these two side and I'm happy to go for a home win.

Back Watford at 1.80 - BetVictor


Nottingham Forest v Hull

Forest cost us some money on Tuesday night, I think they didn't take Ipswich seriously couple that with Ipswich putting a decent performance together and the result didn't go the way I was hoping. Hull by contrast done everything but score against Palace. That game was Palaces toughest of the season so far.

However I don't think there is too much between these side. Forest probably have around a 45% chance of winning this match, but are priced up at 2.50 (40%). With only 3 points between these sides in the league, a Forest win would move them above Hull, which makes these odds wrong.

Back Nottingham Forest at 2.50 - BetVictor


Crystal Palace v Br*ghton

If forums are anything to go by the wheels are falling off at Palace, they haven't won in two games and failed to score for the 1st time this season. They even have the audacity to lose a game after a 14 game unbeaten run.

I've wrote about the reasons why derby games are worth getting involved in. The players playing are still the same,the form table is still the same, people will say "yeah but it's a derby game, the players will be more up for it". Surely both sets of players will be "up for it", which cancels that statement out when looking at the betting.

The facts of this game are:

Crystal Palace

• 3rd in the 6 game form table
• 2nd in the league
• 1 defeat in 16 games
• Lost 8 of last 48 home games
• Scored more than any team at home this season (24)
• Are 5 places and 6 points better off in than Brighton

Brighton

• Unbeaten in 7 games
• 5th in the 6 game form table
• Have the best away defence in the league (9)
• 7th in the league

Looking at that and being objective you could make the case that these teams are of equal ability, being kind to Brighton there as I believe Palace currently have the best starting XI in the league. However if you say these teams are equal then Palace should be price at 2.22 (45%).

I would advise anyone who enjoys good football to find and online link and watch this game as you should see some excellent attacking football from both sides. Here

Back Crystal Palace at 2.45 - BetVictor

Reference to 5-0 day with that celebration?

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

BetVictor are really offering the prices this weekend, this treble pays out at almost 16/1