The Championship - 23rd & 24th February Part 2

I was hoping that certain markets would move in my favour today so that I could have singles on Blackburn and Watford, however the drifts didn't materialise.

Wolves v Cardiff City

Cardiff were beaten when we backed them in midweek, but I see no reason they can't bounce back here. Thomas Kuszczak was in fantastic form for Brighton, Cardiff had 19 shots, 12 on target but couldn't find a way through.

Wolves on the other hand are one of the worst teams in the league, if Cardiff went to another side in the relegation zone they would be odds-on therefore the 2.46 has to be taken. To put it into better context the odds suggest they are less likely to win at Wolves than Leicester are at Blackpool.

I can see Cardiff keeping this tight at the back especially against a Wolves team that struggle to score goals at the moment. I cannot see Cardiff not getting at least one goal here. They have Campbell, Bellamy and Helguson in attack so I'm expecting a 0-1 or a 0-2.

Back Cardiff City at 2.46 - Betfair 


#ToiletRollAcca

This weekend it pays 51,000/1 with Bet365

The Championship - 23rd & 24th February Part 1

Tuesday night didn't go to well but at the prices that happens sometimes. A goal for either Derby or Birmingham and we would of had solid profits. We're still up for  this month, this season and most importantly we're beating the interest rates of the banks.

Middlesbrough v Millwall

Millwall have go from 150/1 to 20/1 for relegation since the end of January, this tell you something about their form. They currently sit bottom of the six game form table, two place below Boro. Chris Wood was a massive loss to them, but to me their main mistake was letting Darius Henderson go to Forest. He offered them creativity and goals. They simply haven't replaced this.

Middlebrough aren't in great form either but they haven't became a bad side overnight, they still sit 6th in the league. They've had injury problems that have helped to contribute to them losing touch with the leading pack. Last weekend they were outplayed by Palace and couldn't get the ball for long periods, in truth it was in Palace's top 3 performances of the season. In midweek they travelled to Burnley and came away with a credible 0-0 draw. A repeat of that defencive display this weekend and they should be able to get the goals that will win this game.

Middlesbrough have an 11-1-4 home record this season, scoring 32 goals and conceding 19. The Riverside is still a tough place to go. Considering league position, current form and where I expect these teams to finish I would give Middlesbrough a minimum 50% chance of winning this game.

Back Middlesbrough at 2.10 - BetVictor

Bristol City V Barnsley

Barnsley are the form team in the league, the transformation in fortunes is phenomenal since David Flitcroft took over. Bristol City have also had an upturn in fortunes since Sean O'Driscoll took over. They have won all their home games. They have lost their three away matches but they came against Crystal Palace, Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers.

This game is one that neither side can afford to lose, if Bristol City lose it may be to big an ask for them to close a minimum six point gap and Barnsley lose then they will be right back in the thick of it, just days after getting some breathing space.

In truth there isn't too much between these sides on paper and to me too much emphasis on Barnsley's form is being reflected in the markets. I would personally have this priced at H-2.50 D-3.25 A-3.40. I can see this being a low scoring, tense and nervous game with the most likely outcome the draw. However I want Bristol City on my side as there current home form has to be respected.

Lay Barnsley at 2.80 - Betfair

The Championship - 19th & 20th February

Saturday wasn't vintage but a small profit was made on the football thanks to taking the early moring prices on Crystal Palace. The main bank now stands at + 42.48% for the season, it's back to a full midweek list and there are some really good prices to get involved in. Hopefully we have some winners to really increase the bank and continue our a fantasic month.

Barnsley v Wolves

Wolves are on a terrible run, they are winless in 9 and will drop into the relegation zone if they are beaten tonight. Barnsley have been on a fine run of form since a managerial change. They are unbeaten in 8 league and cup games, winning 7 of them. Barnsley are currently 4th in the six game form table with only Leicester, Cardiff and Watford above them.

I can see Wolves setting up not to lose this game and eventually getting worn down. If they fall behind I don't feel they will be able to get themselves back into this and would fancy Barnsley to score another. If the game pans out like that and Barnsley can score 2+, like they have done in their last four games then they should win this. Wolves have only managed to score more than 1 goal once in their last 10 games. Away from home they have also failed to score 5 times and average 1.06 goals per game on their travels.

We're far enough into the season now to see where teams are going to finish and Wolves look like they are going to be a bottom 6 side along with Barnsley. Therefore I would have Barnsley priced at the 2.25 mark for this match.

Back Barnsley at 2.38 - William Hill


Birmingham City v Sheffield Wednesday

Birmingham's form has picked up of late, they've only lost 1 of their last 6 in the league and that was on Saturday to Watford. They face a Sheffield Wednesday side who are also on a good run of form, with the 1 loss in the last 6. However on paper, league position and current form there isn't too much between these sides.

Birmingham's games are usually tight with only 5 having more than a one goal margin in them this season. I can see this being another close game but home advantage could be key. The prices are 'effectivly' making Sheffield Wednesday favourites and I cannot see why that is. Like the Barnsley v Wolves game I would have Birmingham priced at 2.25 for this.

Back Birmingham City at 2.62 - Coral


Cardiff City v Brighton

Cardiff have mastered grinding out results this season and they have a fantastic home record of 13-1-1. They face a Brighton side who struggle to score goals and have averaged 1.39 per game this season. They have failed to score 8 times and only scored once on 10 occasions.

It's a very rare that it's been possible to back Cardiff at odds against when they are at home this season but I give them at least a 50% chance of winning this so I'm taking the even money. I think it  will be tight but with Cardiff having a player like Fraser Campbell to call on I can see them taking the points here.

Back Cardiff City at 2.04 - Betfair


Derby County v Bolton Wanderers

Like I mentioned on Saturday Derby are a side that I like when they play at Pride Park. Unfortunately they couldn't get the winner against Wolves but I'm going to give them another chance. I have seen nothing from Bolton this season to show me that they are capable of challenging for the top 6, whereas Derby have impressed me. If it wasn't for their away form they would be in the top six already.

They are currently 17th in the form table with Bolton 18th, both these sides have picked up 6 pints from their last 6 games so even though Derby aren't in the best form Bolton are still behind them. Everything is pointing to Derby being marginally better than Bolton.

Back Derby County at 2.38 - Coral


#ToiletRollAcca

 Pays 31,366/1 with Bet 365

The Championship - 15th February

Last weekend continued our run of form in February with the below winners advised on the blog and twitter;

• Lay Nottingham Forest at 2.56
• Lay Wolves at 2.44
• Back Scotland -3.5 points at 1.82
• Back Sir Des Champs at 2.46
• Back Wales +8.5 points at 2.16
• Back England -1.5 points at 2.04
• Back Zenit in-play v Liverpool at 2.98

We did however have a couple of losers with Sheffield Wednesday not beating Derby and neither Rooney or Van Persie scoring in Madrid.

So the record for this month on all bets stands at 14 winners from 16 bets, hopefully this can continue this weekend.

Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough

I've said enough times this season that if Palace are above even money at home I'm a backer. With their 9 wins from 15 home games this has proved profitable. It is now 8 defeats in 53 league games at Selhurst Park. For me the key to Palace for the rest of this season is Kevin Phillips. I was saying back in December he was the one player Palace needed and he has proved his worth so far. He's came of the bench twice and completely changed the game in Palace's favour.

This weekend Palace face a Middlesbrough side who sit bottom of the form table and were lucky not to be on a six game losing run after Leeds missed a whole host of chances on Tuesday night. For me this is a simple bet, Palace are better than Boro and their home form is superior to Boro's away record (they've lost 9 already). I give Palace at least a 50% chance of winning this, therefore anything above 2.00 has to be taken.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.10 - Coral

Derby County v Wolves

Derby are another side I like to follow at home this season. They've won 8, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their games at Pride Park this season. That's a 53.33% success rate at home therefore I would price them up at around the even money max. against teams from the bottom half of the table.

This weekend they face Wolves, a team that are in real danger. They are only out of the relegation zone on goal difference, they are also in no form, whereas the teams below them are picking up points. Wolves are now winless in 8 and have lost 5 of them.

With the above in mind I have to give Derby more than a 50% chance of winning this.

Back Derby at 2.08 - Betfair

#ToiletRollAcca

Despite getting Peterborough and Bristol City wins in the toilet roll acca, I only got 6 up. Although the six I did get up would of paid out at 1737/1+.

This week we have a cut down card due to the FA Cup so this week the acca only pays out at 982/1+ with Bet Victor.

The Championship - 8th & 9th February

"We now enter February and this is a big month, the bank needs to be built up again and we need to get some pennies together for Cheltenham in March."

The above was the statement I made last weekend and February couldn't of got off to a better start with the two blog singles and 5 singles advised via Twitter coming in:

• Lay Blackpool at 1.78
• Back Watford at 2.15
• Back Ireland +2.5 points at 1.81
• Back England Total points Over 28.5 at 1.99
• Back Italy +12.5 points at 2.06
• Back Total Booking Points Over 46 City v L'pool at 2.38
• Back Joe Flacco Superbowl MVP at 5.10

A seven fold on the above would of paid in the region of 360/1 so hopefully we can keep this run going.

Bristol City v Nottingham Forest

Forests form since the sacking of Sean O'Driscoll has been awful P7, W1, D2, L4. This has led to the man who replaced O'Driscoll only lasting 41 days in charge. They've now appointed former manager Billy Davis, a man who they probably shouldn't of let go in the first place. He's now back after 20 months out of the game and his first assignment is away to a Bristol City side managed by Sean O'Driscoll.

Since O'Driscoll has gone to Bristol City he has set about making them defensively solid. They have now picked up their first clean sheet of the season when the beat Watford 2-0 at the end of last month. Of the four games he's been in charge of they have won their two home games and lost their two away. However reports suggest they played well enough to get something out of these games.

Neither of these sides are in great form but Bristol City are three place and one point better off in the six game form table. With Bristol City seemingly on the up and Forest shooting themselves in the foot with the managerial merry-go-round this could be a good time to take Forest on.

Lay Nottingham Forest at 2.56 - Betfair  

Sheffield Wednesday v Derby County

Sheffield Wednesday are another side that look to be moving in the right direction. They've won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 from their last six and sit 5th in the form table. The signing of Leroy Lita will be huge for them. They are now defensively solid with five clean sheets in their last nine league games,but now crucially have a player who can regularly put the ball in the net. In that time they've only conceded three goals and have won six of these matches.

They now face a Derby side who are not only below them in the form table but also have a W3, D3, L8 record away from home. Their away wins have came at Bristol City and Ipswich, when these sides were out of any form and they also won at neighbours Nottingham Forest.

Considering the current form of these two sides and Derby's lack of a cutting edge on the road I fancy Sheffield Wednesday to continue their good form here.

Back Sheffield Wednesday at 2.50 - Betfair

Wolves v Leeds United

Wolves are in real danger of going down this season. They sit one place and two points above the relegation zone, they are winless in seven and have lost five of these. This weekend they face a Leeds side who have an outside chance of the playoffs if they can put a run together.

Leeds aren't in great form but they have won two and lost four of their last six. However they did put a 3 game winning streak together if you include their two cup matches before last weekends unlucky 1-0 defeat to Cardiff.

I'm taking some caution with this by getting the draw on my side as I think that result on it's own is overpriced. I would give Wolves a 35% chance of wining this based on what they shown this season and current form.

Lay Wolves at 2.44 - Betfair

#ToiletRollAcca

This weeks acca pays 1,373,725/1 with BetVictor

The Championship - 2nd February

January was awful and that's the end of that subject.

We now enter February and this is a big month, the bank needs to be built up again and we need to get some pennies together for Cheltenham in March.

Blackpool v Barnsley  

I advised a lay of Blackpool at 1.72 earlier in the week with a view to trade it out when they drifted. The drift is now in progress but I'm not going to trade out this bet. I've been impressed with with Barnsley in recent weeks. They've won four and drawn one of their last five games, in all competitions. They've also kept four clean sheets in this time.

Blackpool managed to get their 1st win after eight games, all competitions, without one last time out. This win came at Wolves who are bottom of the form table with no wins in their last eight games. Barnsley can continue their run of good form here. With concerns that the Bloomfield Road pitch stops the home side playing their natural game I don't fancy a high scoring game. I would not have Blackpool any lower than 1.90 for this match, they should probably be odds-against.

Lay Blackpool at 1.78 - Betfair


Watford v Bolton

Watford made six changes on Tuesday night and lost 2-0 at Bristol City. They won't be making the same mistakes in this games. I fully expect Vydra and Deeney to start this one and I expect them to score. Watford are still sitting 3rd in the six game form table, 16 places above Bolton.

Bolton have only won away from home twice this season. Their last away game was against Crystal Palace and it was a game they should of lost, with Palace missing several open goals. Dougie Freedman will approach this game with a defensive mindset, I expect to see 4-5-1 with lots of long balls. Vydra and Deeney are the best partnership in this division and I can't see Bolton keeping them quiet all afternoon.

If Watford had beaten Bristol City they would have been priced at 1.9x for this match. The facts are:

• Watford are 13 places above Bolton
• Watford are 15 points better off than Bolton
• Watford are better than Bolton 

The odds suggest that these two sides are not far off equal.

Back Watford at 2.15 - Bet Victor

#ToiletRollAcca

There's only 11 games this weekend but this bet still pays out at over 212,000/1 with BetVictor. There are four odds-on shots this weekend and I want to take three of them on in some form.

• Nottingham Forest
• Bristol City
• Barnsley
• Crystal Palace v Charlton DRAW
• Derby
• Ipswich
• Cardiff
• Millwall v Hull DRAW
• Peterborough
• Brighton
• Watford