The Championship - 30th March

Yesterday didn't go as it was meant to with Watford conceding a 93rd minute goal to draw 3-3 against my betting bogey team, Burnley. I could really do with a clean sweep today to end the month on a high.

Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers

I fancy Bolton to finish 6th this season, they are timing their run to perfection. They currently sit second in the form table with a 5-0-1 record. In this time they have kept three clean sheets. Charlton have the worst home record in the league, with only four wins all season. They have also only managed only two clean sheets and only scored more than one goal at home on five occasions .

A 1-0 win look there for the taking for Bolton and if they take the lead I don't expect them to concede.

Back Bolton Wanderers at 2.62 - Betfair


Ipswich Town v Leeds United

Leeds are now winless in four and their only win in six was a fortunate 1-0 win over Millwall. They did look like they were poised for a late play-off charge but they now look to have run out of steam. The players know the manager will be off in the summer, there's yet more uncertainty around the ownership and the players may now just be thinking about their summer holidays.

Ipswich come into this with a recent record of 2-2-2 but have picked up maximum points on four of their last six home games. They know that a win here will probably leave them one win from safety.

Back Ipswich Town at 2.25 - Coral


Nottingham Forest v Brighton

Nottingham Forest are the form team in the league with six straight wins. A win over 7th placed Brighton will but them four points clear and will be a massive boost to their play-off credentials. The odds suggest that these teams are of equal ability, however taking the form of Forest in to account I think their is a touch of value.

Palace were clueless against Brighton last week, however they did deserve their victory. This looks a different prospect though. I can see Forest taking the initiative here and running out comfortable winners.

Back Nottingham Forest at 2.24 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca Part 2

After yesterday's acca not coming in I'll have to go back to having 50p on this instead of the £112 I would of liked. It pays out at over 830/1 with BetVictor.

The Championship - 29th March

After the most boring weekend of sport in history we get back to basics with The Championship. It's a massive few days in this league with some big games at both ends of the table.

Watford v Burnley

Watford are sitting 5th in the form table whilst Burnley are down in 21st. I said a while ago that I wouldn't touch another Burnley game this season but the odds look too good here. With Watford winning 10 of their 19 home games it would suggest that they should be around the 1.90 mark to start with. Burnley look an average side and will finish comfortably mid-table. I think that Watford will come out firing here knowing that a win moves them into 2nd place and puts the on Hull who they play on Tuesday.

Back Watford at 1.95 - Betfair

#ToiletRollAcca Part1

I'm going to do the acca in two part this week as I'm splitting the blog up and writing about tomorrows football later. The first five results pay out at 225/1 with BetVictor.

The Championship - 16th & 17th March

Cheltenham is done and dusted for another year and it's another profit. I managed to get 9 winners from 14 bets, a £10 level stake on my selections would have returned £240. My personal highlights were seeing Hurricane Fly regain his crown and The New One beating the Irish Banker. The low point of the week for me was Dynaste, he traded at 1/3 in-running and looked the winner. If he had won I would have landed and 80/1 ante-post accumulator.

But it's back to the main bank now and I'm still beating the banks interest rates with nine games left this season.

Leeds United v Huddersfield Town

I watched Leeds at Palace last weekend and they're not a bad side. They were outplayed at times but showed a lot of fight and spirit to get themselves back into the game and then take the lead. A performance like that away to other sides in this league and they would have picked up the three points.

Leeds are currently on a run of six games unbeaten and sit 7th in the form table. As always they are strong at home with a 11-3-4 record. Their only defeat in their last 10 at Elland Road was an unlucky 1-0 loss against Cardiff.

Huddersfield have only won three of their last 21 games. However things have improved slightly since Mark Robins took over have won two of their last six. A 1-0 defeat at home to Charlton last time out though doesn't inspire much confidence. Defensively they are the worst side away from home in the division conceding and average of 2.33 goals per game on their travels. They have already conceded six goals twice and four goals three times.

Back Leeds United at 1.95 - BetVictor


Hull v Nottingham Forest

Forest come here as the form team in the league since Billy Davies has taken over. They have won five and drawn one. The draw in that run was six games ago against Bolton, who have now also won their last five. They travel to Hull this weekend, they are 5th in the form table and 2nd in the league. The signing of George Boyd has been massive for them he's given them some impetuous up front and they now look like they can score goals.

I'm taking this bet on instinct because from what I have seen of Hull this season, they're not actually that good. If you can get the first goal against them you'll be able to score a few more, as Sheffield Wednesday showed when they came here. On the other hand they have games where they create loads but can't hit a barn door. I can see Forest getting something out of this game and think they'll win it if they get the first goals. I do however want the draw on my side.

Lay Hull at 2.22 - Betfair

#ToiletRollAcca

It's a tough weekend in The Championship so the acca is paying out at over 660,000/1 with BetVictor.

Cheltenham Festival Day 4

Yesterday didn't go exactly to plan, I made a total profit of £2.67 thanks to Solwhit at 9/1 (advised via Twitter) recovering the losses I made on Dynaste coming second after looking the winner and trading at 1/3 in running and First Lieutenant hitting a fence when getting into contention to also finish second.

If truth be told I not been fully efficient this week despite 7 winners from 11. My staking plan has been truly awful. To put it into context if I had decided to bet £10 each on all of my selections then I would be +£227, I would also only of had to put my hand in my pocket for the 1st race as I picked a 7/1 winner in that. So instead of my being in the four figure profit range, I'm in three figures due to overstaking/understaking.

Anyway it's been three profitable days and hopefully I can make it four with Friday's selections.

Triumph Hurdle - 1:30 Cheltenham

I'm always banging on about course and distance form, won last time out etc etc. There are two horses that tick those boxes for me in this Rolling Star and Far West. I've been saying for a while that I didn't think Nicholl's would have a winner this week and so far that's proved correct. Therefore I'm going to stick to my guns and oppose Far West.

Back Rolling Star - 4.5 General


Albert Bartlett - 14:40 Cheltenham

Again looking at this race there is one horse that fits my profile and this one has the added bonus of having its form franked this week. At Fishers Cross beat The New One at Cheltenham back in January and on Wednesday The New One was one of the most impressive winners of the week when landing the Neptune. Back in December At Fishers Cross again won at Cheltenham but with this years Coral Cup winner Medinas back in fourth.

The form line with this horse are solid, the only concern for me is the ground. He's usually been a runner on Soft or Heavy so genuine quick Good ground is an unknown.

Back At Fishers Cross - 4.00 Betfair


The Gold Cup - 3:20 Cheltenham

This race is simple for me, which is all the more gutting that Dynaste cost me my ante-post accumulator. Bobs Worth has the best form in this race and loves it round Cheltenham, four starts and four wins. His form on all the others in this race is the strongest based on his Hennessey run.

Long Run is an obvious danger but I can't be backing him, already beaten by Silviniaco Conti this season and an awful round of jumping in the King George mean I can't be backing him. The main danger to Bobs Worth is the other horse form my ante-post bet, Sir Des Champs. When he won the Jewsons last year I instantly thought Gold Cup winner. He comes into his own at this time of the year and loves Cheltenham, two runs and two wins in consecutive festivals.

I want them both on my side so I'm splitting my stake between them.

Back Bobs Worth for 57.61% of stake - 3.90 Betfair
Back Sir Des Champs 42.39% of stake - 5.30 Betfair

I've had a good week and will be in profit with whatever happens to the above, but hopefully we can have the perfect end to the festival and do what we threatened on Tuesday and Wednesday, get a clean sweep of winners!

Cheltenham Festival Day 3

So far so good this week. Six winners from eight advised bets. The personal highlight for me was The New One beating 'Irish hype banker' Pont Alexandre at 6.20. The Ante-Post accumulator is still going strong with four of the six races in so far.

Jewson Novices Chase - 1:30 Cheltenham

Leg 5 of my ante-post acca comes down to this horse, Dynaste. The below is what I wrote back in January.

I went to Kempton on Boxing Day with the intention of backing this horse in The Feltham, I was expecting 1/2 but got 4/6  before the off. This horse was hurdling last season against Big Bucks and the problem with judging the form of those races is that horses have to be ridden differently if they want a chance of winning.

This season he has gone chasing and won all 3 of his starts and he won The Feltham by 9 lengths due to a round of massive jumping. No Feltham winner has ever won The RSA Chase and that's probably why the price is around 5/2. He could alternatively go for The Jewsons so I think it's worth putting him in for both as whichever one he goes for I believe that he will start shorter than he currently is.

From what I saw in the RSA yesterday I think would of won that race. He's gone for this race however and on paper it looks easier to win. I see no reason to desert him now, the only negative may be the drying ground but he goes well fresh.

Back Dynaste - 2.54 Betfair

**I took 2.72 last night but din't post this up before the price collapsed, sorry**

Ryanair Chase - 2:40 Cheltenham

For me this race center's around one horse, First Lieutenant. He has stong winter form with runs behind Tidal Bay and Bobs Worth (who is Gold Cup Favourite and one I fancy). He also has previous festival form when winning the 2011 Neptune, beating Rock On Ruby, who has since won a Champion Hurdle and finished runner up on Tuesday. Last year he was beaten in the RSA by Bobs Worth, a horse that has won all its races at Cheltenham.

Back First Lieutenant - 3.55 Betfair

The double on the above two pays out at 9.63 with Paddy Power

Through The Card

I fancy a bit of a laugh today to go with the two singles above so I'm going to have a little on this 11,624,158/1 accumulator. I'll also put the first six in a place pot.

13:30 - Dynaste

14:05 - Junior

14:40 - First Lieutenant

15:20 - Solwhite

16:00 - Mad Moose

16:40 - Alfie Sherrin

17:15 - Any Currency

I've placed a whole 6p each-way 7-fold on those with  BetVictor as the maximum payout is £1million!

Cheltenham Festival Day 2

Had an excellent day yesterday with my three singles on Quevega, Champagne Fever and Simonsig coming in. Hurricane Fly also won but I didn't get a single on at the price I wanted (shouldn't of been so greedy). I'm half way to winning £2000 with my Ante-Post Acca thanks to Hurricane Fly, Quevega and Simonsig all winning. So Hopefully Sprinter Sacre can win today to keep that going and land the even money singles I have on him.

The only downside was the £1 I lost on my 750/1 acca due to Carlito Brigante being hampered by a faller in the last. I didn't have the single as I was effectively on at 75/1.


Queen Mother Champion Chase - 3:20 Cheltenham

If you haven't taken Coral's up on their EVEN money offer on Sprinter Sacre then sign up and get on now!

I was at Cheltenham last year when Sprinter Sacre won the Arkle and was blown away by how easy he won. He has speed and fantastic jumping, when those two are combined he can take a 1/2 a length plus out of anything over a fence.

They're only letting you get £20 on but if you know anyone that doesn't want to claim value and would rather keep their £20 in an ISA making 0.008% then convince them to open an account and put it on for you too. This horse should be 1/4 so the Evens just has to be taken.

Back Sprinter Sacre - 2.00 Coral


Neptune Novices' Hurdle - 2:05 Cheltenham

I said yesterday the course form is important to me around here. There's only one horse in this race that has that form, The New One. He was beaten by a neck into 2nd last time out on Heavy ground round here. This horse finished 6th behind Champagne Fever in last years bumper and beat My Tent Or Yours at Aintree a few weeks later.

Pont Alexandra comes here as the Irish banker but I'm going to stick to my tried and tested method.

Back The New One - 6.20 Betfair


Champion Bumper - 17:15 Cheltenham

I usually make a lot of my horse racing money through the summer by Richard Hughes' rides, especially with two year olds. He's got his jumps license for a different kind of race than what he's used to, but I'd be kicking myself if I didn't back him and it comes in.

Back Sgt Reckless - 9.50 Stan James


If you fancy some fun with a treble then Boylesports are paying 85.14 (84/1) on the above three winning

The main thing for me today is Sprinter Sacre winning I've taken full advantage of the even money so as long as he wins I'll be in profit.

The Championship - 12th March

Sorry for posting this up late, but have obviously been busy with Cheltenham, so I'm going to keep this simple.

Cardiff City v Leicester City

This looks like a basic bet to me;

• Cardiff are better than Leicester, as shown by the league position
• Cardiff aren't in great form but Leicester's form is worse
• Cardiff's home record is 13-2-2
• Leicester's away record is 5-4-8

This game is priced up like Leicester are the better side considering the factors and adjusting the prices for form and home advantage.

Cardiff should be priced at 2.25 max for this but they're 2.3x

Back Cardiff City at 2.34 - Betfair

Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Right it's finally time... Cheltenham 2013 is here. I already have This Bet going and am very hopefully of this coming in. I'm also on Sprinter Sacre at Evens after taking up the offer from Coral and getting a few friend to place bets for me.

Supreme Novices Hurdle - 1:30 Cheltenham

I'm a big believer in course and distance form and there are only three horses in this race who have won round Cheltenham. Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets and Cheltenian. I'm putting a line through Dodging Bullets as Ruby Walsh has opted to ride Champagne Fever. I'm putting a line through Cheltenian as I like to back horses who have a win to their name in the season. The Obvious danger is My Tent Or Yours but I can't be backing a horse at that price with no course form.

Back Champagne Fever - 8.00 Betfair


The Arkle - 2:05 Cheltenham

As I said in my Ante-Post preview;

Like last year Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty team up in this race with a horse that wins it's races easily. Simonsig was one of my big fancies last year and I was very happy to back it at 9/4 in the Neptune. He has gone chasing this year and from his two runs over fences it looks like he's just got better. He's currently even money but I'm expecting around 4/6 on the day.

I've seen nothing to change my mind from this and I can see front runner and 2nd favourite Overturn struggling to keep with Simonsig on the soft ground.

Back Simonsig - 1.66 Betfair


Mares Hurdle - 4:40 Cheltenham

I've seen nothing to change my mind from my ante-post write up;

Quevega has won this race for the last 4 years and seemingly the only thing that could beat her is if she is in season or injury. The trainer has stated that she won't be going for The World Hurdle so 10/11 on a horse that will start 1/3 has to be taken.

The only difference is that she is a bigger price this year than last and I have to back her

Back Quevega - 1.77 Betfair


If my phone works this year, unlikely, I'll post up some more bets on twitter if i see anything I fancy. They are likely to center around Hurricane Fly and Grandouet in the Champion Hurdle and Carlito Brigante in the 5:15.

If anyone is interested my Champion Hurdle thoughts are below

·         Rock on Ruby was hammered by Grandouet and Zarkandar at Cheltenham in November on soft

·         Grandouet will improve for the run and better ground

·         With No out and out pace setter like last year (Overturn) ROR may have to make the pace himself and set it up for something else

·         ROR would have been beaten by Darlan last time out if Darlan hadn’t of fallen at the last when cruising

·         Darlan hammered Countrywide Flame at Kempton on Boxing Day  and beaten again by ROR last month

·         Darlan was the form horse out of those three and I never fancied it for this race so I can’t have the other two now

·         The Fly’s already Beaten Binocular this year easily so that rules him out

·         Cinders and Ashes was beaten on Boxing Day by Darlan so that rules him out for me

·         That leaves 3 rags which I can’t see winning as they are 20/1 66/1 and 100/1

·         Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar are the best on form, but I don’t fancy Nicholls to win a race in the week and I think Grandouet will reverse placing’s with Zarkandar off level weights.

·         Hurricane Fly also beat Zarkandar in this race last year although Zarkandar will improve with age so that may mean nothing

Conclusion

Hurricane Fly will be ridden up with the pace this year and it all depends on whether Grandouet can get to him up the hill.

Hurricane Fly is the value and should be 7/4 however I think I can get a bit of 5/2. If that price becomes available I'll be a backer.

The Championship - 9th & 11th March Part 2

#ToiletRollAcca

After getting 8 from 12 midweek I'm hoping to go 2 better this weekend and land the 18,000/1 odds with BetVictor

The Championship - 9th & 11th March Part 1

We had an excellent Tuesday night with Palace winning at 2.44 and Ronaldo scoring at 2.26. I'm hoping it continues this weekend. We were also close with the #ToiletRollAcca getting 8 from 12 - the 8 result that were right would have paid nearly 5000/1. I'm convinced that this acca will come in one day and hopefully that day is soon. But until then we'll keep growing the bank with singles. The main bank is currently standing at +36.07% which is better than any ISA or Icelandic banking scheme.

Bolton v Brighton

These two sides sit side by side in the form table, with identical 4-2-0 record. With Bolton 5 point behind Brighton in the table a win here would really close the gap. Looking at the way these side are currently playing I feel there is more to like about Bolton. For me Brighton are too inconsistent in front of goal to be serious promotion contenders. They play pretty football but lack a cutting edge.

I have a feeling that Brighton's recent good run of form may be coming to an end, this is a tricky game, followed by a Tuesday night game in Barnsley and then their cup final against Palace. The month then finishes of with a trip to a Forest side that may very well of leapfrogged them by then. If they do end up struggling in the next four games the price on Bolton this weekend would have been too big.

I know I'm looking a few weeks down the line but betting is about predicting the future. If my theory comes true then you'd expect Bolton to be around the 2.20 mark for this.

Back Bolton at 2.30 - Betfair

Crystal Palace v Leeds United

I'm getting a little bored of this bet now even though it keeps paying out. I'm sure anyone reading this is bored of my Palace write-ups too, so I'll keep it simple.

If this was Watford, Leicester or Cardiff at home to Leeds they would be priced at 1.7x maybe 1.8x at a push. Palace are 1.95!

Should a team that are unbeaten in 17 home games and have just beaten the side who were 2nd be priced like that? Should a side who have only lost 8 of their last 56 league games at Selhurst be priced like that? If your answers are 'no' then you have to place this bet.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.95 - Betfair

The Championship - 5th March

Crystal Palace v Hull

We're back to one of our most trusted bets this season, Palace at home above 2.00 vs anyone. Palace have now only lost 8 of their last 55 games at Selhurst Park and are unbeaten in their last 16 home games since Watford scored two goals in the last two minutes on the opening day of the season.

I don't see much difference between these two sides, the addition of George Boyd has helped Hull with some of their attacking problems but Palace haven't really found him a handful in the past. I cannot see why Hull are the price they are in the market when you consider their recent away form. They were beaten 4-1 at Bolton, 1-0 at Brighton and drew 1-1 at Peterborough. They did however win at Millwall after scoring the only goal of the game after 32 seconds, Millwall are currently on a run of six defeats in seven games. Hull are going to have to really up their game if they are to get a result here, there will be long periods when they don't have the ball. When these two sides met in November Hull dramatically tired in the last 20 minutes and fitness could be key again here.

I can see this game going one of two ways, Palace will either put in an assured and professional performance like they did against Middlesbrough, score an early goal and end up winning comfortably. Or they will be knocking on the door all evening until they finally break Hull down in the last 20 minutes.

These two side are of equal ability so therefore the match should be price at around the H-2.25, D-3.50, A-3.75 mark.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.44 - Betfair

Both Teams To Score

I was having a conversation on why backing NO BTTS in these markets is often the value. Basically the odds in these markets have contracted so much on the YES side, due to the amount of people backing that outcome it's created value on the other side. So I thought I'd have a look into the markets for a few weeks to see what I could find. Keeping stakes to a minimum for a bit of fun.

Cardiff City v Derby County - NO
Bristol City v Brighton -NO
Crystal Palace v Hull -NO

Treble Pays 8.82 with Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca
I keep getting half way with this and would be showing a profit if I backed all my picks in singles but I'd be kickign myself if I got it up and I hand't placed the accumulator.

Pays over 411,373/1 with Bet365

Draw
Burnley v Barnsley

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest v Ipswich

Draw
Huddersfield v Middlesbrough

Draw
Millwall v Wolverhampton

Draw
Bristol City v Brighton

CardiffCardiff v Derby

Watford
Watford v Sheffield Wednesday

Draw
Leicester v Leeds

Draw
Peterborough v Charlton

Draw
Birmingham v Blackpool

Draw
Bolton v Blackburn

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace v Hull

The Championship - 1st & 2nd March Part 1

February was a good month for us and got the bank back up after a terrible January. We now stand at +30.36% so another good month here and the target of beating the interest rates of the banks will be almost guaranteed.

We also had another good week on Twitter with the below bets;

• England -6.5 points v France at 1.83
• Scotland to beat Ireland at 2.62
• Feyenoord v PSV Over 2.5 goals at 2.00
• Gareth Bale to score v West Ham at 2.58

Unfortunately the perfect 6 Nations record was undone by backing Italy+6.5 points v Wales at 2.28. However I'm still very happy with 8 winners from 9 bets in the tournament so far.

Wolves v Watford

Wolves are in free-fall at the moment, we took them on last week when the faced Cardiff and we got paid out at 2.46. This week they face Watford who are in better form and are more clinical in front of goal. Where Cardiff will grind out a result, Watford will seek to batter teams into submission, especially away from home. They have the best away record in the league, W-10 D-2 L-5 F-38 A-24. Logic suggests that Watford will score at least once tonight, but I actually fancy then to score two or three.

Wolves don't offer much threat up front, they have player that can hurt teams but they don't seem interested and there is no confidence around the place. They may score a goal tonight but I really think they'll need at least two to get something out of this game. If Watford were away to another side in the relegation zone they would be priced at odds-on (unless Zola makes six changes again). With Wolves in terrible form and looking like they'll be in League one next season I cannot understand why Watford are odds against. Leicester are the same price to win at Ipswich and Ipswich are higher up the league than Wolves and in better form, Leicester are below Watford in the table and in worse form.

Back Watford at 2.30 - Coral

Leeds United v Millwall

Millwall may have won at Middlebrough last weekend but in truth they are a poor side. Beating Boro at the moment should be seen as a great achievement, I've seen their last four games and they have really gone off the boil. This week Millwall travel to an inconsistent Leeds side who have a 2-2-2 record from their last six games. However this is still better than Millwalls 1-0-5 record.

Leeds are better than a Millwall side who I feel punched above their weight for most of the season, then lost key players to other clubs at a time when they needed to strengthen. Elland Road is a tough place to go and Leeds have a 10-2-4 record there this season. Of their four defeats three have come against Cardiff, Hull and Watford, whoa re all better than Millwall and the other was by Birmingham who for some reason always get a result up there.

The market has this priced up like these teams are equal but in truth there will be at least ten points between these side at the end of the season.

Back Leeds United at 2.24 - Betfair

Blackburn v Peterborough

It's getting close to the time where I can collect on my Peterborough to be relegated bet. They were the worst team in the league and that was before George Boyd left. He was the star of the show in their 5-1 victory at Millwall, but in the two subsequent games they have failed to score and look to have lost that cutting edge.

One goal for Blackburn may good enough to settle this and with Jordan Rhodes up front they have a goal scorer who can change games like this. I actually like the Blackburn squad and believe that if the fans had got behind Steve Kean they would be challenging for promotion. However protests and managerial changes have really hurt their season. They do now look to have some stability back and have an FA Cup quarter final to look forward to. They will be hoping to push on this season so if they miss the play-offs they will carry momentum into next year.

With the quality of these two sides and where I expect them to finish I would have Blackburn priced at 1.85, that may seem short but I'm taking a long term view on this.

Back Blackburn at 1.94 - Betfair