I’m not a massive fan of ante-post betting as it ties up
money that can be used for other things and ultimately make more from it in the
9 months of the season. I do however like to have a few accumulators and here are my thoughts
on this seasons Championship. These selection will go into my accumulators which I will post up on Friday.
Handicap Market
There were a few teams I liked for this including Hull and
Millwall, but I’ve decided to go with BIRMINGHAM. A lot has been made about their
financial issue and how they are going to lose their ‘big’ players. They’ve lost Ben Foster and Jordan Mutch.
I don’t see them two players as much of a loss, they have an
adequate replacement in goal with Jack Butland. In defence they still have
Curtis Davies, Stephen Carr and Steve Caldwell. However it’s what they have
going forward, which means Jordan Mutch won’t be a loss. They have Chris Burke,
Darren Ambrose, Hayden Mullins in midfield. These players are experienced and
will help out the younger players in Nathan Redmond and Ravel Morrison. I think
most would agree that their midfield has the potential to be the strongest in
the league.
You can then add to that midfield forwards with the quality
of Marlon King and Peter Lovenkrands. The two of them have goals in them and
with Nikola Zigic coming off the bench when long balls are being lumped into
the box makes attractive strike force in this league.
They ended last season with a 9 game unbeaten run in the
league and if they can pick up where they left off there is no reason why they
won’t make the play-offs again. With Bet 365’s offer of
+12 points, ¼ odds each way, paying 4 places this looks a value bet to me
priced up at 18/1.
Relegation Market
I’m concentrating on two sides for this, the first is BARNSLEY.
They finished last season on a terrible run of 1 win in 15 games. Their squad
look weaker with the departures of Jacob Butterfield and Andy Gray. The arrival
of Mido, doesn’t really excite as he has 13 club goals in 5 years. Their only
win on the final 3rd of the season was against my other selection, PETERBOROUGH.
I fancied them to go down last year and they survived but this year they’ve
lost a key part of their side in Joe Lewis. If you’re a side that play
attacking football then you need a decent keeper. They haven’t signed players
with experience at this level and I don’t think they’ll be able to survive
again.
It is possible to Dutch both to go down. This will means
that if either go down you’ll get paid out at 2/5 if 1 goes down, which seem
very likely as I can’t see 3 teams worse than both of them.
Most Overrated
There’s always a couple in this league every season who get
a bit of cash or are a big name and everyone thinks that they’ll be up their challenging.
It happened with Leicester last season, they spent £5million on a right-back
and were never in contention. Money has to be spent wisely in this league, believe
me I support a side who signed Ade Akinbiyi for over £2million, then made the
same mistake again by signing Shefki Kuqi. Administration eventually followed.
The prize for most overrated this season was a choice
between Leeds and Nottingham Forest. But FOREST take it due them being absolutely awful
last season. They’ve now got some money and got a lower league quality manager,
Sean O’Driscoll, in charge. I also don’t think they have improved their squad,
when you look at the players they have lost. I can’t see why they are 9/2 to go
up. I will be taking them on early in the season whilst they are an artificially
short price.
Player to Watch
From a betting point of view there is one player I am
interested in, Jonathan Williams. When
he plays Crystal Palace look like they have the ability to score goals. In the
early part of last season he got 6 assist, he then broke his leg whilst on
International duty with Wales U21s. Palace have never lost when Williams has
played. He’s trying to get back to full fitness but is struggling; picking up
little niggles here and there.
I would not advise any bets on Palace if he’s not in the
starting 11 until they prove they can score goals without him. That could be a
long time coming as the midfield creativity is no existant, with the exception
of Zaha, who would be better up front.
I’ve seen a lot of youngsters over the years at Selhurst
including Salako, Moses, Zaha and Bostock, but Williams is better than any of
them. He is like an Iniesta he just seems to be able to spot a pass and has great awareness of what's going on around him.
