How much bad luck can I have?

After the month started so well with The French Open, Sandown and Epsom it has just fallen apart with bad luck. Here are some examples of it…

·         Holland – enough said!

·         Russia backed at 2.58 to win Group A, traded at 1.30 and somehow threw it away. Not only did they miss out on the Group they didn’t even qualify from it.

·         Sweden v Ukraine nice greens on the draw and Sweden, the Swedes go 1-0 up and are looking good. Then they lose 2-1 from nowhere.

Although I made a small profit at Royal Ascot there were more hard luck stories...

·         Bated Breath backed Each-Way and ended up being beaten by less than a length.

·         The Fugue back 80% place 20% win, meant a small profit was made, but she met trouble in running and was beaten by less than a length.

·         Noble Mission backed to win at 5.80 and traded at 1.08 in running  when getting bumped all over the place and going down by less than a length.

To top it all off though we had the European GP, where I backed Vettel at 1.87. He built up a 21 second lead by lap 30 and traded at 1.10. The safety car then came out and erased that lead. He was still leading the race when the safety car came in and traded at 1.3x when he just stopped.

If half of those bets had landed I would have made a fantastic profit this month. Instead I’m scratching my head trying to work out how things went that bad. They say Karma’s a bitch but I haven’t done anything wrong!

However I’m not going to get myself too down, I’m still up for the year and this amount of bad luck can’t go on forever. Time for a few days off to enjoy some tennis and hopefully England at the Euros then back to work for the 2^nd week of Wimbledon, The Open and Glorious Goodwood.

European GP

Anyone who has followed me on twitter will know that I like to take on Lewis Hamilton in F1. I’ve taken him on 6 times this season and won 6 times. I left the Canadian Grand Prix alone last time out as he was overpriced and I wasn’t watching the race due to the football.

However we are now back in Europe and Red Bull have brought an updated car which has generally been the quickest for Vettel all weekend. He was almost a third of a second quicker in Q3 yesterday, which in one of the most boring races of the season should be enough to see him home if he gets to the 1^st corner 1^st. The price for him to be 1^st lap leader is 1.27 which for me makes the 1.87 on him to win the race a very nice price; I’d have it nearer 1.7x.

I see him getting to the 1^st corner 1^st and opening up a large lead over the next 10 laps. From there the only things that can stop him would be a mistake (unlikely from the double world champion) or tyres.

For those reasons my bet to make it F1 PayDay number 7 is...

Sebastian Vettel to win the European GP @ 1.87 – Betfair 2 points

Royal Ascot Day 4

Yesterday didn’t go according to plan, with Fame and Glory finding absolutely nothing on the run in. It just seems he wasn’t good enough on the day. The frustrating thing is that was the 1^st time I hadn’t backed colour vision is some form…and it went and won. Never mind still in a small profit and hopefully today’s pick will contribute a little more to the bank balance.

King Edward VII Stakes

15:05

NOBLE MISSION is the full brother to Frankel. With 2 wins and 2 second places from his 4 starts he has some ability. He won nicely on at Newmarket on Good to Soft back in May and was put up 7lbs for that effort this meant that he ran next time out giving 5lbs to Thought Worthy on Good to Firm, he went down by ¼ length. With some give in the ground today and level weights those placing’s should be reversed.

The main danger however is Derby 3^rd Astrology. He was the pace maker in that race and people say will be ridden differently today. He may be but on his previous start at Chester he made all to win by 11 lengths in a poor race at Chester.

I feel that he will attempt to front run again but the fast finishing Noble Mission will pick him up close to the line as he tires. With the selection back on ground more to his liking I feel he is overpriced.

1 point win at 5.80

Royal Ascot Day 3

Royal Ascot has proved to be a decent week so far with profits made on both days. I was looking to back The Fugue today but with the last nights and this mornings rain I’m giving that race a miss. Instead I will concerntrate on just the one race today.

Gold Cup

3:45

Having gone through the form of this race the only conclusion that I can come to is that FAME AND GLORY has to be backed. He won this race last year beating Opinion Poll by 3 lengths, he then went to Champions Day and followed that up handing out a beating to Opinion Poll as well as Colour Vision. It's a telling sign that Frankie Dettori has chosen to ride Colour Vision, which shows that he is open to improvement and looked well on seasonal rapperance. Last time the two met he was beaten by almost 2 lenghts recieving 7lbs, he now recieves 2lbs which I don't think will be enough to turn that form round.

He was impressive on his reappearance this season when handing 7lbs and upwards all round. Aiden O’Brien won this in 5 of the last 6 years; his defeat in that time was in 2010 when his Age Of Aquarius went down by a neck to Rite Of Passage.  Aiden seems to have the ability to keep these older horses sweet. With 14 wins from 22 starts Fame And Glory is worth 2 points of my money to win at 2.00.

Royal Ascot Day 2

A decent start to the Royal meeting yesterday and hopefully it will continue. Today looks tough but there are a couple that I like and heard good things about them yesterday.

Jersey Stakes

2:30

Unfortunately Price wise tipped VALBCHEK so the price has shorten a bit but I still think it is value, especially in the place market. I have backed this one to be placed at 2.74 and to win at 7.40. The stable have won this race twice in the last ten years and the fact that Ryan Moore has chosen to take the ride is a massive positive. He is open to improvement and connections seem very keen on this race, they have had it targeted all season. 

Prince of Wales Stakes

3:45

SO YOU THINK is not a horse I particularly like and took it on a couple of time last season, to make a nice profit. However this looks like a two horse race between him and Carlton House. The Queens horse is still open to improvement and looks better over 10f that 12f. However I’m going with the Aussie due to its last run at Ascot on Champions day. He finished 2^nd to Cirrus Des Aigles which would have been my selection if he hadn’t pulled out of this. That was a very impressive performance and the French horse has gone on to win at Meydan when beating coronation cup winner St. Nicholas Abbey earlier this year. There have been some very positive comments made on his chance here and I am happy to get involved in the win market at 2.08.

I’ve had 1 point on the two Valbchek bets and 3 points on So You Think.

Hopefully we can continue on from yesterday and make a nice profit again.

Royal Ascot Day 1 Thoughts

Queen Anne

2:30

There’s only one winner of this FRANKEL! He’s won 10 from 10 and beaten most of these previously. Is he value at 1.20? Probably, as he should be nearer 1.14 max. Will I back him? Likely, I’ll see how I feel on the day.

Another option in the race may be to look at Excelebration, he’s finished 2^nd to Frankel 3 times and 3^rd once. He’s won 6 from his other 7 races, the exception being when he finished 4^th on racecourse debut at Nottingham back in May 2010. He interests me in the To Be Placed market on Betfair at 1.5x. The reason for this is it’s paying 3 places (Effectively 2 as Frankel will take one) and the only danger to him finishing 2^nd will be Strong Suit. So if Frankel and Strong Suit come 1^st and 2^nd he surely must come 3^rd. Worthadd is a front runner who was poor at Epsom and won’t get things his own way in this with Bullet Train and Windsor Palace also looking to set the pace. The rest are Handicappers at best when compared to the head of the market.

Kings Stand

3:05                    

BATED BREATH is a horse that frustrated me in the second half of last season, when he moved up to Group Company. He final got that elusive first Group success last time out over 5f at Haydock. That was on Firm ground and he hasn’t got the best form in the book when it comes to a bit of cut in the ground. However the weather’s improving, with the exception of some showers predicted for tomorrow morning, and Ascot’s a fast drying track. If follow the ground isn’t too soft I’ll be backing him to follow up that success.

There are a few dangers in this 23 runner field so I’ll be wanting around 6.50+. He has the beating of the home challengers but there are some very interesting an classy imports. These include Wizz Kid, 2^nd to Deacon Blues on Champions Day last year. Another one I like is Little Bridge, on official ratings he should go close. Add into that Aussie raider Ortensia it looks a very competitive race, but the rewards for getting it right are worth getting involved.

St. James’s Palace

3:45

POWER is a horse I always back. Apart from his shocker at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas he has been solid, never coming out of the top two (never being beaten by more than ½ a length in those). He put the Newmarket horror show behind him at the Curragh next time out winning nicely with a late surge.

He won at the Royal meeting last year and has beaten what I see as his main challenger, Born To Sea, last time out. Gabrial is an interesting entry due to it being supplemented but he has Jamie ‘Hold It Up Too Long’ Spencer on top. He also finished 17 ½ lengths behind Power at Ascot last year, although he has improved and has the ability to make the frame I cannot see him getting up to Power.

For those reason I will be a backer at anything over 3.50.

Euro 2012 Update and Day 9 Tips

Euro 2012 hasn’t gone great so far however I’m still confident of turning things round due to the below:

Russia

Ante-Post bets on them to win the group and the tournament are going well. They are one of the best supported sides and that gives the feeling the tournament is being hosted by 3 nations. They’re turning up everywhere, even at England’s game last night.

With Holland being absolutely dismal so far even if they do get through I wouldn’t fancy them. Russia should beat Greece tonight and bring in some money for the group winner bet, but then they will face the second placed team from Group B. None of these sides should hold any fear for Russia on current form, unless the Germans somehow throw it away.

France

Any twitter followers would have seen my tweet an in-play bet on France v Ukraine at 2.26, this bet coming in really gave me a confident boost. This was really needed after the previous days.

Ante-Post bets on them to win Group D now rest on them beating Sweden by a larger margin than England beat Ukraine, with the Swedes already out and looking really shaky at the back the chances of that happening look good to me.

If they win the group the likelihood is they will face Italy. I have been impressed with some of the Italians attacking play, but as Croatia showed you can get some joy if you have a go at them. With the attack minded players at Frances disposal I can see them having too much.

Russia v Greece

I was going to have the day off but I just can’t get away from backing Russia. The way the Greeks have started their previous two matches, this one could be over by half time. The Greeks attacking threat comes from Samaras, I still think Russia are capable of being strong defensively and this could be the game when they keep the clean sheet I’ve been expecting. Russia have tired in the second half of matches but they’ve made fast starts.

For those reasons I’ve had two bets tonight...

Russia to be winning at Half Time 2.44 – Betfair 2.5% of Bank

Russia to beat Greece 1.86 – Betfair 5% of Bank*

*I may trade this in running depending on how Russia are playing around 65 minutes

Portugal v Denmark

After watching Denmark be outplayed by Holland on Saturday and Portugal’s unlucky defeat to the Germans, I can’t see how Denmark are going to keep the ball long enough for this bet to lose. Portugal easily outscored Germany in the corner match bet (11-2) and Denmark went down (11-4) v Holland. With the Portuguese needing a win to realistically keep their hopes alive and there better ball retention I expect then to create a lot more than the Danes. This should mean that they create more chances and therefore get more corners.

For that reason my bet is the below

Back Portugal in Corners Match Bet 1.32 – Betfair 10% of Bank   

** A big plus for me is that Bet365 have this at 1/7 and they are usually very good on their corner predictions. Sporting Index also have their Supremacy market priced at 3-4 in favour of Portugal, they’re not normally far off with their spreads

Holland v Germany

It was good to get back in the green yesterday, hopefully that’s the start of a turn around.

Holland v Germany

The main question of today’s games is ‘Will Holland be as wasteful again?’ My answer to that is no! Germany may have won on Saturday but I wasn’t that impressed with them, the Portuguese deserved something out of that game. The Dutch created so many chance on Saturday that even if they only create half of them tonight you’d fancy them to score a couple. There were gaps in the Dutch defence on Saturday which was exposed on the counter attack. That would be a concern for me if I didn’t fancy The Dutch to score at least two. I cannot see the like of Van Persie and Huntelaar failing to hit the target over and over again tonight. I have put up a lay of Germany and hope to get matched at some point, as I think this is the value call. They should be nearer 2.7x

Lay Germany 2.50 – Betfair 10% of Bank

Update and Day 5 Euro 2012 tips

I’m not going to try and sugar coat it, Euro2012 has been poor for me so far. The only good thing is that my Ante-Post selections are on course to do well. Russia and France have both shortened in the Overall Winner market. And Russia look set to win Group A.

France looked decent against England; they moved the ball well and kept possession. My question mark with them is over the defending. Credit to England though it was a very professional performance and it never looked like they were going to lose. I still expect France to win this group.

If both the Group winners come in it will go along way to restoring profits. My main problem so far seems to be some of my in-play stuff. With my pre kick-off selections I think I’ve been unlucky, but that’s not an excuse.

Anyway onto today and it’s back to Group A.

Greece v Czech Republic

The main focus of my bet here is the loss of Greek defenders. I think the Czechs will score and therefore force the Greeks to come out a bit. If the Czech Republic defends like they did against Russia then Greece will get chances. However if the Greeks are pushing forward it should allow the experienced Czech midfield to pick up and loose balls and counter attack.

For this reason my bet is…

Over 1.5 goals 1.54 – Betfair 2.5% of Bank

Poland v Russia

From all the first round of games Russia were the most impressive. The looked at ease when beating the Czech Republic 4-1 and didn’t break sweat. By contrast Poland looked good for 45 minutes against Greece but then fell apart in the second half. The pressure will be cranked up in this game because anything other than a Poland win could see them on the verge of elimination. I can see the Poles going for it from the off, but unable to break the solid Russian defence down. This should leave Russia free to counter and with Arshavin looking in the mood they should prevail.

Russia to beat Poland 2.64 – Betfair 5% of Bank
Lay Poland v Russia 3.20 - Betfair 10 % of Bank

Ukraine v Sweden

Having looked at these two sides it’s obvious that Sweden are better. I was looking for reasons to oppose them but can only find ‘They’re away from home’, but as we saw on Friday that doesn’t always help. In fact Portugal lost their opener in 2004 and so did Austria and Sweden in 2008. For me that shows the home advantage at major tournaments is over-rated. Add into that Ukraine are using their 4^th choice keeper and Ibrahimovic leading the line for the Swedes it doesn’t look good for the co-hosts.

Sweden managed to qualify 2^nd in their group behind the Dutch and have wont their last 4 games, that includes wins over Serbia and Croatia.

For those reasons I feel they are overpriced and will be backing them

Back Sweden to Beat Ukraine 3.00 – Betfair 5% of Bank
Back Sweden Draw No Bet 2.12 - Betfair 5% of Bank

France v England

England are without a win in five against France in all competitions, losing their last three.

Why would this stat change now? The French unbeaten in 21 winning 15 of them, England limited going forward, so sit back and pray. Only problem with that is our defence consists of Glen Johnson, can't see him handling Ribery to well. We could concentrate on Benzema but what do we do about Nasri and Cabaye. They have Giroud on the bench if things aren't going well. I really fear for us I can see the French keeping 60% of the ball and punishing us when we tire. One thing we do have going for us is we aren't that bad, England are still a top 8-10 world footballing nation and we still have some world class players. We've kept 4 clean sheets in our last 5. I'm hoping we put in a decent performance and lose 2-1. That will set us up nicely for later in the tournament and with yesterdays results finishing 2nd in the Group may not be a bad thing. 

I'm already on France to win the group and to win the tournament, so therefore I will not be getting involved in this match. NO BET for me due to having enough of my bank tied up on Frances performance at this tournament.

 

Spain v Italy

Not much to say on this other than Italy have lost their last 3 without scoring, If I'm honest I wish I'd taken the 1.97 this morning. This is the perfect game for in-play betting, as you'll be able to see exactly how each team sets up and the tempo of the game. Hopefully that will mean getting a price above evens on the Spanish.

So NO BET from the start for me unless 1.95+ is available,stake will be 10% of Bank. I'll post anything I do in-play on twitter.

Ireland v Croatia

After a bad day 2 where Holland forgot how to hit the target and the ref in the Germany match, strangely for him, kept his cards in his pocket, we move on to day 3.

In the 7:45 kick-off we have Ireland unbeaten in 14 games and very strong defensively, 11 clean sheets in that run, up against Croatia. The Croats are missing there star striker, Olic, however they do have other options going forward with Modric and Jelavic.

The Croatians are also 8th in the World but finished behind Greece in their qualifying group. They drew 0-0 with the Irish in August and the Irish fans are out in force for this match.

The Irish will be setting up with 2 banks of 4 and will be solid, they keep Croatia in front of them and make it difficult for them to create space. With Robbie Keane up front they have a fantastic outlet, who only needs a half chance to score, as shown by his 53 International goals.

With all that considered do Croatia have a 44% chance of winning this match? My answer is No

Lay Croatia 2.26 - Betfair 2.5% of Bank 

Germany v Portugal Update

The referee in this match, Stephane Lannoy, has shown 47 yellow and 4 reds in his last eight matches. I can see  Portugal conceding a large number of free-kicks, couple that with Ronaldo's diving and I fancy there to be at least 5 yellow cards. Therefore my bet is in the Booking Odds Market on Betfair. 1.80 is the correct price and I managed to get 2.08, it's now into 2.00 which is still value

9 points and Above in the Booking Odds Market on Betfair 2.0x 5% of Bank

Germany v Portugal

The second game of day 2 sees two side who will expect to get out of the group, the likely-hood is that one will miss out. This match will go a long way to deciding that. For me it's a tough one to call as I can't figure out how either team is going to setup.

I have my eye on a particular market but need to wait for team news and the market to develop. Therefore it's a NO BET at this time.

If the market and team news develops the way i want it to I will post something on twitter about 15 minutes before kick-off.

Holland v Denmark

After a great start yesterday, with Russia winning, we move onto day 2.

I thought the price of 1.66 was about right for Holland to beat Denmark, however the traders are out trying to set themselves up for some in-play action - hence the drift on Holland to 1.79 on Betfair. I am more than happy to get involved at that price.

Denmark are a decent side, 9th in the World Rankings, but they've already been beaten by Brazil and Russia this year. The Dutch are superior to these two sides, therefore another defeat is on the cards. One thing Denmark do have is a good goal scoring record  in recent time, scoring in 13 of their last 15 games.

The Dutch are a great side going forward with Van der Vaart, Van Persie etc, they seem full of goals. The Danes aren't that strong at the back especially with Sorensen out so I expect Holland to score at least 2. I think that Denmark can score, the Dutch defence is pretty average with 8 clean sheets in the last 15 games, but 2 goals may be a step to far.

For those reason my bets on this market are...

Holland to Win 1.79 - Betfair 5% of Bank
Over 2.5 Goals 2.18 - Betfair 2.5% of Bank

Ante-post Euro 2012 bets

France, Holland, Russia dutched to Win tournament 10% of Bank 5.00
Russia to win Group A 5% of Bank 2.58 
France to win Group D 5% of Bank 2.58


All bets placed with Betfair

Russia v Czech Republic

Russia, unbeaten in 14 games, with 10 clean sheets in that time come up against the Czech Republic. The Czechs kept two clean sheets against Montenegro in the play-off to reach this tournament, but their overall form is a bit hit and miss. They lost 3-0 in Norway last year, drew 2-2 with Scotland and recently lost to Hungary.

Looking at their squad they don't offer much going forward. Milan Baros is still the main man, however he only scored 8 goals for Galatasaray last season. I think Russia will keep a clean sheet in this due to their strong back line. With some of the attacking talent Russia posses coupled with a strong aerial threat from set plays, I always have doubts when Cech comes for crosses, the Russians must score at least 1.

For those reasons my bet is...

Russia to win 2.28 - Betfair 2.5% of Bank

Poland v Greece

The first game of Euro 2012 sees co-hosts Poland take on 2004 champions Greece.

In Poland's last 5 games they have kept 5 clean sheets scoring 7 goals and 4 of those where against Andorra! That leads me to believe that Greece may struggle to score, but as we all know the Greeks are a tough side to break down. Greece have drawn 3 of they're last 5 1-1, they beat Armenia 1-0 and lost 3-1 to Romania. Greece have only scored more than 1 goal in 3 of their last 15 games, even then they only scored 2.

So we have two teams who look defensively solid and struggle to score goals, the markets know this and that's why it's a NO BET from the start. However I will put anything I see in-play on Twitter @cherryanalysts

Euro 2012 Group Winner Betting

GROUP A

My thoughts on this are pretty simple - Russia! I think they have the strongest squad and they avoid playing the hosts in game 1. I fully expect them to beat the Czech Republic which will put them level on points with Poland after the beat Greece in the earlier game. That sets up Poland v Russia on the 12th June, the winner of that game should go on to win the group, however both sides would be happy with a draw. I cannot see Russia losing to the Poles. I fully expect them to beat Greece in their final, lets face it Samaras won't be troubling the well organised Russian defence. 

I feel that Poland will take second place in the group, more by default than being any good. I don't buy into this 'Lewandowski' craze that's sweeping Europe. He may have scored plenty of goals this season but he won't have Grosskreutz or Kagawa around.

GROUP B

The Group of 'Death', we have Holland, Germany, Ronaldo and Denmark. I'll start with the Dutch. They have plenty going forward and that should be enough to get them through this group. I have this niggling doubt about the Germans, a lot of their team played a lot of games and picked up a few injuries along the way, their hopes in this group rest on how they cope with Portugal's 9-0-1 formation in game 1. If they can't break it down and get caught on the break or Ronaldo does the magic he's been doing all season they could lose it 1 - 0 which would put them out in my opinion as they won't beat the Dutch. For those reasons I fancy the Dutch to win the group, but 2nd place will be down to that 1st Game, if the Germans avoid defeat they'll take 2nd, which at this time is the most likely outcome.

GROUP C

If Group B is the Group of Death then this group will bore to death. I'm really struggling to see a scenario where a game will have over 2.5 goals. For starters there's Spain, no Villa is a concern for me, but a bigger concern is how they (Barcelona) passed the ball around so much without doing that much with it against Chelsea. The core of their squad have played a ridiculous amount of games this season (World Club Championship, Copa del Ray final and Champions League Semi Final). With some of the knocks that have been picked up in recent months they could just burn out. When they went on their 35 game unbeaten run 10 of them were 1-0 wins.

We then have Italy and mini Italy - Ireland. These teams are going to setup in the standard Italian manner. If you've watched Crystal Palace play this season you'll know what that is! It consists of the other team have nil lets keep it that way. Eventually these type of teams go on to be beaten 1-0 and have no plan B.

I thought that Croatia may offer some attacking threat in this group but with Olic, a player who created space for the likes of Modric, with his clever runs they will be missing a huge part of their counter-attacking game plan.

GROUP D

France 21 games unbeaten with players like Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, Girod, Cabaye against England, who can call on a poor Liverpool Squad, a poor record in the European Championships and a poor record against Sweden. Seems like a no contest and I think it will be, for me France win this Group hands down, they have too much class going forward. If teams sit back they will wear them down, if teams attack them they'll punish them on the counter. 

So second place is up for grabs. I have thought for a while that England won't win a game, we'll probably draw with the Swedes again then it finishes with Ukraine in Ukraine, not the sort of game you want if you need a result to qualify. I have it down as this going into the final group games

France      6 points

Sweden    2 points

Ukraine     1 point

England     1 point (bottom on goals scored)

And for that reason anything could happen, it really depends on what is going on in other games.

So my Bets for the Group Winners are

Russia to win Group A - 2.58 Betfair 5% of Bank

France to win Group D - 2.58 Betfair 5% of Bank

Euro 2012 Winner Market

For anyone who has followed my tips on Twitter, 2012 has been a very successful year so far and with that attention now turns to Euro 2012. I've been looking forward to this for a while and want to go into a bit more detail than 140 characters on why I select my bets.

Having looked at the Euro 2012 draw I have managed to find what I think are 3 value bets in the Tournament Winner market. All three of them dutched pays around 4/1 but also they should set up a good trading opportunity.

France 

I've liked the look of the French side for a while now, they're unbeaten in 20 games and have a group which they can win easily. The way England play I cannot see them causing the French too many problems in the opening game and the likes of Benzema and Ribery will wear England down. That will leave them needing 4 points from the last 2 games to win the group. In the quarters they should then face Italy, Ireland or Croatia; again they should have too much for any of them.

They'll then be in the semis where I think they'll come up against my 2nd selection Holland. I have the Dutch down to win group B. This is because the core of the German squad is based around Bayern Munich. Munich haven't won a trophy since 2010, couple that with few poor German results recently and a tough opening game against Portugal, I think the Dutch will beat them in the 2nd group game and win the group.

With the Germans coming 2nd in Group B, I think they'll come up against my 3rd selection Russia. The Russians are defensively solid but also have the fire power up front. They are in the easiest group against sides, namely Greece, who struggle to score. They've avoided the hosts in the 1st game which is a plus for me. They'll need a lot of things to fall right for them to win this, with games against Germany, Spain, France or Holland, but there's a value call due to the potential for a trade if they get to the semis.

Get the prices your bookie is offering, put them into the calculator http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html and stake accordingly for 10% of your total bank.