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Saturday 4 May 2013

The Championship - 4th May

Last day of the season and I'm hoping that this time next week I'll be waking up with a hangover after Palace have beaten Brighton in the play-offs. I'm going to keep it simple today as there's no need to go on, everybody knows what is needed to be know about these sides.

Hull v Cardiff

Hull are too short here, just because they need to win doesn't mean they will. They chocked last weekend and are more than capable of doing it again. I'm also sure Malky Mackay will want to give something back to Watford, a club he previously played for and managed.

Lay Hull at 2.00 - Betfair


Nottingham Forest v Leicester City

Both sides have to win so that takes the 'they must win so will win thinking out of the equation'. These sides are of equal ability, next to each other in the league and are on equal runs of from, so I'd have this priced at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75.

Lay Leicester City at 3.20 - Betfair


Huddersfield v Barnsley

A bit like the above game both teams need a win but the away side are priced short. Huddersfield have been above Barnsley all season and are currently in better form than them. They have proven goal scorers in their side so I don't see why Barnsley are any shorter than 3.75.

Lay Barnsley at 3.40 - Betfair


Treble

Crystal Palace
Brighton
Charlton

Pays 6.70 at BetVictor


#ToiletRollAcca

Last one of the season pays over 39,000/1 with BetVictor




Friday 3 May 2013

Newmarket 4th May

After a successful jumps season we get to the first classic of the flat season. Looking through the card it looks to be one to take on a couple of the shorter priced with some double figure selections. At this stage of the season though I would only advise small stakes. My bets are win only but if security is more your thing then they have solid each-way claims.

Newmarket 2:35
Tangerine Trees is one of the horse that is on my follow list for the season. Things didn't go for him last year but he is a class horse. His Abbaye win in 2011 is in my opinion the strong form, that day he had Sole Power, Prohibit and Wizz Kidd all in behind. I have the belief that this horse can run right up to the potential it showed back then and if he does he'll be a player in these sprints. He's already a course and distance winner, something that none of the others are and he was impressive when staying on last time out to win up at Musselburgh.

Back Tangerine Trees at 17.0 - Coral


Newmarket 3:50
This was my tweet from Thursday night;

Started nibbling at the Van Der Neer prices (30/1+) for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday. Write up not done yet but I know he'll be my selection

I managed to get my money on at average odds of 34.4 however I still consider him value at the current 25.0. The front two in the market have obvious claims but I can see Toronado burning himself out, he won the Craven in impressive style but Havana Gold hasn't even taken up his entry in this race and neither has Dundonnell, who look to be more of a sprinter.

Van Der Neer is my selection at the prices, he may look like the 2nd string but William Buick is no second string jockey, he is more than capable of winning the big races. Last time out this horse had all sorts of trouble in-running. He may struggle with the pace of this race but if the front runners don't see it out he'll be staying on, he actually looks a serious Derby contender based on the form of his only defeat to date. That defeat cam against Kingsbarns, who is currently one of The Derby favourites.

I'm taking a punt on this one as I would have him price at 17.0 max.

Back Van Der Neer at 25.0 - Betfair