Final day of Royal Ascot is here and it's been a frustrating meeting. I'm still in profit (just) but yesterday carried on from Thursday. I backed Sandiva at 11/4 she was backed into 7/4 and finished 2nd. Big Break started 9/2 after I had backed her at 13/2 but found nothing off the bridle. Hoping that I can land one winner today to end the meeting on a high, before Glorious Goodwood next month.
Hardwicke Stakes - 15:05
Ektihamm won over course and distance last time out, beating Thomas Chippendale who himself won at The Royal Meeting last year, beating Noble Mission. The previous race to that was at Sandown where Ektihamm was a neck third to Thomas Chippindale. The winner of that race was Al Kazeem, who has gone on to show his class when winning here on Wednesday. Ektihamm looks to be on an upwards curve and today looks to be a day for siding with him.
Back Ektihamm at 11/4 - 888Sports
Diamond Jubilee Stakes - 15:30
There are form lines all over the place in this race with most of the horses beating each other at some point. Due to this I have whittled it down to Maarek and Society Rock. The reason I have got my short-list down to this two is because the both have previous course and distance wins and have won this season.
My pick however will be Maarek. He won the Sprint back on Champions Day last year and at 22/1 looks a bit of value to me.
Back Maarek at 22/1 - Stan James
Saturday 22 June 2013
Thursday 20 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day 4
Day 3 was probably the most frustrating days racing I can remember. It started when I woke up and realised there had been no rain. I then went on twitter and gave bullish comment about No Nay Never who was trading at 7.60. However I didn't take my advice and stuck with Coach House in the hope of the rain coming. No Nay Never won and Coach House came 2nd. In the next race I fancied Riposte but didn't back it due to the predicted weather and strong opposition, two of the main rivals pulled out and she went on to win at 9/2.
Rite of Passage was my selection in The Gold Cup but was pulled out on account of the ground. Estimate was my other fancy in that race but I left her unbacked as I don't like to back something on account my fancy being pulled out. She won at 6/1. In the next I was on Wentworth at 5/1 and he was flying but couldn't reel in the front runners on the quick ground, eventually finishing 4th (I wasn't on each way).
Then to compound my misery I backed Van Der Neer to win and not each way at 13/1. He travelled well through the race and looked winner when hitting the front, however he tired in the final 100 yards to finish 3rd. That's enough moaning anyway, I'm still in profit and I'm confident of finding a winner on 'Essex Day'.
The Albany - 14:30
The form line of this race ties in nicely with Wednesdays Queen Mary, which was won by the impressive Rizeena. In that race a filly called Fig Roll was 4th. On the 3rd of June Fig roll was beaten by Sandiva and that looks to be the smartest form line in this race. I was expecting the price to be nearer 9/4 so I'll take the 11/4.
Back Sandiva at 11/4 - General
Coronation Stakes - 15:45
Big Break is a horse that I have been waiting to cross The Irish Sea for this season. I fancied her for The Guineas and The Oaks, but she had a set back so didn't make the trip. She had her seasonal reappearance in the Irish 1000 where she didn't have the run of the race, she had to come wide, was knocked about but still looked the winner with half a furlong to go. She'll come on the run and Weld has sent her over because he knows she is class. I believe that she'll show that she is the best 3 year old filly out there and win this comfortably.
Back Big Break at 7.6 - Betfair
***I will also be getting on the double for the above two at 27/1 with Totesport/Betfred***
Buckingham Palace Stakes - 17:35
Not a race to be getting heavily involved in but there are a couple I like at each-way prices. Redvers and Smarty Socks tick all the boxes I like. They've won over course and distance and have won recently. It's only a race for small stakes at the prices.
Back Redvers at 20/1 each-way - Totesport/Betfred
Back Smarty Socks win at 29 - Betfair
Back Smarty Socks place at 6 - Betfair
Back Smarty Socks place at 6 - Betfair
Wednesday 19 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day 3
After Dawn Approach rescued day one for me, day two proved to be a lot less stressful and brought some well earned profits. Al Kazeem showed his class to win and The Fugue showed her ability on a firm surface to grab some place money. She'll be one to keep an eye on as she'll defiantly come on for the run. What that race says about last years three year old form is simple - it's worthless.
Rizeena looks to be a very smart two year old and she won nicely for me at 7/1, she has bags of pace and looks like she'll stay further. If she trains on she will be a massive player in next years 1000 Guineas.
Thursday doesn't look to be an easy card especially with the prediction of rain. However I have found four bets that I like at various prices. One winner will give me a profit but whatever happens I'll still be up for the week as it's a smaller stakes day for me.
Norfolk Stakes - 14:30
The O'Brien's have won the first race on both days now and they should be able to keep that going with the classy Coach House. If the expected rain comes and gets into the ground we may see a repeat of his Tipperary ride where he made all on soft ground and won by six and a half lengths.
There doesn't seem to be too much else in the race that have shown much. Wesley Ward has brought second favourite No Nay Never over from the USA but any rain that gets into the ground will surely harm his chances based on his breeding and that he has only ever ran on polytrack which was described as fast.
Back Coach House at 3/1 - General
Gold Cup - 15:45
One of my betting rules is that any Dermot Weld horse that is sent over has to be seriously considered. My faith in this approach was rewarded on Champions Day last year when Sapphire won at 3/1. Also on that card was former Gold Cup winner, Rite of Passage who won at 8/1.
Right of Passage has been here and won this race before back in 2010 when he won it at 20/1. He acts on any ground and looks to have less question marks about him than many of his rivals.
Back Rite of Passage at 8.40 - Betfair
Britannia Stakes - 16:25
I backed Wentworth on his debut at Goodwood last year, that day he came 6th and cost me a considerable sum. However he atoned for that defeat by winning his next two starts. He made his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood last month, but over six furlongs. I was surprised to see him dropped back in trip and didn't back him that day.
I'm hoping that he does what he done last season though and will comes on for run, especially as he's been stepped backup to a mile. We don't know how he'll act on the ground if the predicted rain gets in but he's potentially well handicapped so if he comes on like he did last year he'll go close.
Back Wentworth at 5/1 - 888Sport
Tercentenary Stakes - 17:00
This years 2000 Guineas form ties in nicely with this race, even though it's over an extra two furlongs. On Guineas day I backed Van Der Neer win and place, he stayed on for 3rd beating Toronado. Dawn Approach and Toronado went head to head on Tuesday in which they both showed their class. However over an extra two furlongs Van Der Neer would be right up with them and would probably of beaten them.
He'll love this step-up in trip and I believe that his Guineas run shows that he is a classy animal.
Back Van Der Neer at 14 (13/1) - Betfair
Rizeena looks to be a very smart two year old and she won nicely for me at 7/1, she has bags of pace and looks like she'll stay further. If she trains on she will be a massive player in next years 1000 Guineas.
Thursday doesn't look to be an easy card especially with the prediction of rain. However I have found four bets that I like at various prices. One winner will give me a profit but whatever happens I'll still be up for the week as it's a smaller stakes day for me.
Norfolk Stakes - 14:30
The O'Brien's have won the first race on both days now and they should be able to keep that going with the classy Coach House. If the expected rain comes and gets into the ground we may see a repeat of his Tipperary ride where he made all on soft ground and won by six and a half lengths.
There doesn't seem to be too much else in the race that have shown much. Wesley Ward has brought second favourite No Nay Never over from the USA but any rain that gets into the ground will surely harm his chances based on his breeding and that he has only ever ran on polytrack which was described as fast.
Back Coach House at 3/1 - General
Gold Cup - 15:45
One of my betting rules is that any Dermot Weld horse that is sent over has to be seriously considered. My faith in this approach was rewarded on Champions Day last year when Sapphire won at 3/1. Also on that card was former Gold Cup winner, Rite of Passage who won at 8/1.
Right of Passage has been here and won this race before back in 2010 when he won it at 20/1. He acts on any ground and looks to have less question marks about him than many of his rivals.
Back Rite of Passage at 8.40 - Betfair
Britannia Stakes - 16:25
I backed Wentworth on his debut at Goodwood last year, that day he came 6th and cost me a considerable sum. However he atoned for that defeat by winning his next two starts. He made his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood last month, but over six furlongs. I was surprised to see him dropped back in trip and didn't back him that day.
I'm hoping that he does what he done last season though and will comes on for run, especially as he's been stepped backup to a mile. We don't know how he'll act on the ground if the predicted rain gets in but he's potentially well handicapped so if he comes on like he did last year he'll go close.
Back Wentworth at 5/1 - 888Sport
Tercentenary Stakes - 17:00
This years 2000 Guineas form ties in nicely with this race, even though it's over an extra two furlongs. On Guineas day I backed Van Der Neer win and place, he stayed on for 3rd beating Toronado. Dawn Approach and Toronado went head to head on Tuesday in which they both showed their class. However over an extra two furlongs Van Der Neer would be right up with them and would probably of beaten them.
He'll love this step-up in trip and I believe that his Guineas run shows that he is a classy animal.
Back Van Der Neer at 14 (13/1) - Betfair
Royal Ascot Day 2
Yesterday didn't start to well with my Ante-Post money going out the window after races one and the Shea Shea getting beaten after looking the winner in race two. However Dawn Approach managed to make me a profit on bets placed yesterday.
Today looks to be a tough day but at the prices one winner will do for me.
Prince of Wales's Stake - 15:45
Camelot has won a Guineas and The Derby, however the form of those races hasn't really worked out too well. He seem to be a workman like horse and not the superstar that people were saying last year. In his last run he was beaten by Al Kazeem and I can't see any reason for that form to be reversed. The Fugue is a horse I like but she needs genuinely quick ground and to me looks to be one that will improve later in the season, however I can see her running into a place.
Back Al Kazeem at 5/2 - General
Royal Hunt Cup - 16:25
Directorship has won over the course and distance here and is in excellent form with two wins from two this season. Those are the sort of things I like to see when I'm backing a horse so at the prices he's worth an each-way play.
Back Directorship at 33/1 each-way - Bet365
Queen Mary - 17:00
Like Directorship in the 16:25 Rizeena ticks the same boxes. I really like the way she stayed on when she beat odds on favourite Oriel here back in May. She then went to Sandown where she made all and won easily. A repeat of either of those performances today and she'll go close.
Back Rizeena at 7/1 - Boylewsports
Today looks to be a tough day but at the prices one winner will do for me.
Prince of Wales's Stake - 15:45
Camelot has won a Guineas and The Derby, however the form of those races hasn't really worked out too well. He seem to be a workman like horse and not the superstar that people were saying last year. In his last run he was beaten by Al Kazeem and I can't see any reason for that form to be reversed. The Fugue is a horse I like but she needs genuinely quick ground and to me looks to be one that will improve later in the season, however I can see her running into a place.
Back Al Kazeem at 5/2 - General
Royal Hunt Cup - 16:25
Directorship has won over the course and distance here and is in excellent form with two wins from two this season. Those are the sort of things I like to see when I'm backing a horse so at the prices he's worth an each-way play.
Back Directorship at 33/1 each-way - Bet365
Queen Mary - 17:00
Like Directorship in the 16:25 Rizeena ticks the same boxes. I really like the way she stayed on when she beat odds on favourite Oriel here back in May. She then went to Sandown where she made all and won easily. A repeat of either of those performances today and she'll go close.
Back Rizeena at 7/1 - Boylewsports
Sunday 16 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day 1
I've been off for a while and only been posting on Twitter due to there not being that much going on betting wise. However it now comes to my 2nd favourite race meeting of the year. The Tuesday of Royal Ascot is always a day I look forward to, as it's generally profitable and the racing is top class.
Anyone that has been following me on twitter would have seen some of the below posts in recent months;
Anyone that has been following me on twitter would have seen some of the below posts in recent months;
"@AscotInsider: South African-trained King's Stand favourite Shea Shea has arrived in Newmarket." #BANKER
4 weeks to Royal Ascot and the odds on Animal Kingdom have started to shorten. #BestHorseInTraining
So Shea Shea wins The Kings Stand at Royal Ascot then
@Scowmeadow good shout mate, get half the profits on the Animal Kingdom Shea Shea double
Just had a little more on the Animal Kingdom/Shea Shea double at 13/1 #RoyalAscot
I think it's fair to say which camps I will be in on Tuesday, I'm on the Animal Kingdom & Shea Shea double at an average of around 15/1 as well as a few Animal Kingdom singles at 11/4 and upwards. My one regret is not taking more of my own advice when I sent a friend of mine an email with these highlighted horses in it, as I would be sitting on a nice ticket at 134/1.
That's enough about the Ante-Post positions now as those prices are long gone. We now need to make some money throughout this week and there are some excellent races to look forward to.
This is Royal Ascot so there'll be big prices around on the morning and may be best to wait until then
This is Royal Ascot so there'll be big prices around on the morning and may be best to wait until then
The Queen Anne - 14:30
As you can see from the above, I'm on Animal Kingdom and I've seen nothing to change my mind. This horse has won a Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup. He probably would of won The Breeders' Cup Mile too, if he hadn't found trouble in running.
The interesting thing to take from that race at Santa Anita is the form line with Excelebration. Anyone who was following me last year would remember me saying that Frankel was the best miler of a generation, but Excelebration was easily 2nd best over the last two years. This thinking was rewarded when I backed him to come 2nd to Frankel in this race last year and also to win the mile race on Champions day. Animal Kingdom finished two lengths ahead of him at the Breeders' Cup so surely that is the best piece of form in the race.
If Animal Kingdom runs to form he should be winning this race by about 5 lengths. He has the stand side rail for assistance and I really can't see how a horse who has only finished outside the top two once in eleven races, cannot win, unless he under performs. In reality he should be a 4/6 shot max, so there is some mileage in the current 8/11 on offer.
I'm not getting involved again as I'm already on, but if I wasn't I'd be happy get on again or have him as part of my multiples.
Back Animal Kingdom at 8/11 - General
Kings Stand Stakes - 15:05
I'm not a massive fan of European sprinters, I try to support them but find it difficult as they're not that good. Last year I backed Japanese raider Little Bridge in this and he won at 12/1. This year we have a South African sprinter who broke the track record at Meydan on March 9th then broke his own record on March 30th.
Shea Shea is a class sprinter who has won 10 from 19 races with two second places and 3 third places. On official ratings, his only rivals are Reckless Abandon and Shamexpress. Shea Shea likes to leave his challenge late with a strong burst of speed; as long as the hill doesn't trouble him too much he should be able to pick off the rivals around. Reckless Abandon will likely be raced up with the pace however with Sole Power, Spirit Quartz and Swiss Spirit also drawn in the teens, I think it's likely that they will hamper each other by trying too hard to cover the others moves instead of running their races.
Due to me already having this horse in a number of doubles with Animal Kingdom, I won't be backing it again unless Animal Kingdom is beaten.
Back Shea Shea at 2/1 - General
St James Palace - 15:45
If Dawn Approach had ran in The Derby he'd be odds on for this race. He got knocked in the stalls at Epsom and never settled, however he's still unbeaten over a mile. I was at Ascot last year when he won the Coventry and immediately turned to my mate and said "Guineas winner". He went on to win the Guineas last month by 5 lengths. On that piece of form his only challenger is Magician. Toronado was put in his place at Newmarket and, to me, doesn't look like he has enough speed to see off the top two in the market.
The way I'm looking at this race is simple. What price would Dawn Approach be if he hadn't of ran in The Derby? My answer to that is he'd be odds on, so I'll be taking the odds against.
Back Dawn Approach at 11/8 - Bet Victor
** I would also advise having a treble on the above three at almost 11/1 with Bet Victor**
Coventry Stakes - 16:25
Hannon and Hughes have a ridiculously good two year old record. Over the last five years Richard Hannon has an 18% strike rate with two-year olds;
2807 Runners
510 Winners
18% Strike Rate
419 2nds
308 3rds
310 4ths
Richard Hughes record is even better;
1078 Rides
281 Winners
26% Strike Rate
192 2nds
107 3rds
97 4ths
On derby day I backed Thunder Strike on this basis, and would be backing him if Hughes had chosen to be the jockey. Richard Hughes has, however, chosen to go for Championship so that's my selection here.
Championship made his racecourse debut last month and looks like he'll come on for the run. He won that Newbury race despite starting slowly and not finding a clear run. With the record of this trainer/jockey combo and the way he quickened last time out, he has to be the bet in this race.
Back Championship at 11/2 - Betfred/Totesport
**I will also be backing all four of my selections at just under 76/1 with Betfred/Totesport**
Saturday 4 May 2013
The Championship - 4th May
Last day of the season and I'm hoping that this time next week I'll be waking up with a hangover after Palace have beaten Brighton in the play-offs. I'm going to keep it simple today as there's no need to go on, everybody knows what is needed to be know about these sides.
Hull v Cardiff
Hull are too short here, just because they need to win doesn't mean they will. They chocked last weekend and are more than capable of doing it again. I'm also sure Malky Mackay will want to give something back to Watford, a club he previously played for and managed.
Lay Hull at 2.00 - Betfair
Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
Both sides have to win so that takes the 'they must win so will win thinking out of the equation'. These sides are of equal ability, next to each other in the league and are on equal runs of from, so I'd have this priced at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75.
Lay Leicester City at 3.20 - Betfair
Huddersfield v Barnsley
A bit like the above game both teams need a win but the away side are priced short. Huddersfield have been above Barnsley all season and are currently in better form than them. They have proven goal scorers in their side so I don't see why Barnsley are any shorter than 3.75.
Lay Barnsley at 3.40 - Betfair
Treble
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Charlton
Pays 6.70 at BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
Last one of the season pays over 39,000/1 with BetVictor
Hull v Cardiff
Hull are too short here, just because they need to win doesn't mean they will. They chocked last weekend and are more than capable of doing it again. I'm also sure Malky Mackay will want to give something back to Watford, a club he previously played for and managed.
Lay Hull at 2.00 - Betfair
Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
Both sides have to win so that takes the 'they must win so will win thinking out of the equation'. These sides are of equal ability, next to each other in the league and are on equal runs of from, so I'd have this priced at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75.
Lay Leicester City at 3.20 - Betfair
Huddersfield v Barnsley
A bit like the above game both teams need a win but the away side are priced short. Huddersfield have been above Barnsley all season and are currently in better form than them. They have proven goal scorers in their side so I don't see why Barnsley are any shorter than 3.75.
Lay Barnsley at 3.40 - Betfair
Treble
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Charlton
Pays 6.70 at BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
Last one of the season pays over 39,000/1 with BetVictor
Friday 3 May 2013
Newmarket 4th May
After a successful jumps season we get to the first classic of the flat season. Looking through the card it looks to be one to take on a couple of the shorter priced with some double figure selections. At this stage of the season though I would only advise small stakes. My bets are win only but if security is more your thing then they have solid each-way claims.
Newmarket 2:35
Tangerine Trees is one of the horse that is on my follow list for the season. Things didn't go for him last year but he is a class horse. His Abbaye win in 2011 is in my opinion the strong form, that day he had Sole Power, Prohibit and Wizz Kidd all in behind. I have the belief that this horse can run right up to the potential it showed back then and if he does he'll be a player in these sprints. He's already a course and distance winner, something that none of the others are and he was impressive when staying on last time out to win up at Musselburgh.
Back Tangerine Trees at 17.0 - Coral
Newmarket 3:50
This was my tweet from Thursday night;
Cherry Analyst @CherryAnalysts
Newmarket 2:35
Tangerine Trees is one of the horse that is on my follow list for the season. Things didn't go for him last year but he is a class horse. His Abbaye win in 2011 is in my opinion the strong form, that day he had Sole Power, Prohibit and Wizz Kidd all in behind. I have the belief that this horse can run right up to the potential it showed back then and if he does he'll be a player in these sprints. He's already a course and distance winner, something that none of the others are and he was impressive when staying on last time out to win up at Musselburgh.
Back Tangerine Trees at 17.0 - Coral
Newmarket 3:50
This was my tweet from Thursday night;
Cherry Analyst
Started nibbling at the Van Der Neer prices (30/1+) for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday. Write up not done yet but I know he'll be my selection
I managed to get my money on at average odds of 34.4 however I still consider him value at the current 25.0. The front two in the market have obvious claims but I can see Toronado burning himself out, he won the Craven in impressive style but Havana Gold hasn't even taken up his entry in this race and neither has Dundonnell, who look to be more of a sprinter.
Van Der Neer is my selection at the prices, he may look like the 2nd string but William Buick is no second string jockey, he is more than capable of winning the big races. Last time out this horse had all sorts of trouble in-running. He may struggle with the pace of this race but if the front runners don't see it out he'll be staying on, he actually looks a serious Derby contender based on the form of his only defeat to date. That defeat cam against Kingsbarns, who is currently one of The Derby favourites.
I'm taking a punt on this one as I would have him price at 17.0 max.
Back Van Der Neer at 25.0 - Betfair
Thursday 25 April 2013
The Championship - 26th & 27th April
It's that time of year when everyone says "they need to win, so they will win..." This normally creates some good betting opportunities as teams don't win simply because they 'need' to. With that in mind I'm laying four who need to win for various reasons this weekend and keeping the reasoning simple.
Leicester City v Watford
Leicester aren't that good, they're defiantly not good enough to be 2.0x in this match. They have one win in 11 going back to the 2nd March! Watford have been inconsistent of late but they are still in better from than The Foxes. Leicester should be a minimum of 2.3x here so they have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.06 - Betfair
Blackburn Rovers v Crystal Palace
I want Palace to win this but I just don't think they will. They are looking scared at the moment and seriously lacking in confidence. For them to be given a 37% chance of winning this is just ridiculous. Blackburn aren't a great side but they have won 3 of their last 6, compared to a Palace side who haven't won in 7 and 2 away win since November. I would have Palace priced around the 3.10 mark minimum.
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.64 - Betfair
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town
This game is priced up on the belief that Bristol City just don't care and Huddersfield 'have' to win. That may be true but do they really have a 40% chance of winning this? My answer is no so I'm taking them on.
Lay Huddersfield Town at 2.50 - Betfair
Leeds United v Brighton
Brighton have won 3 of their last 10, admittedly they were impressive last weekend but does that really give them a 42.74% chance of winning this? Yes, Leeds may have nothing to play for but they've won 2 from 3 under Brian McDermott and I'm sure he or the Elland Road crowd will not be happy if they roll over for Brighton.
Lay Brighton at 2.34 - Betfair
*Bet365 are offering 7.67 on all of those lays coming in using their Double Chance coupon
#ToiletRollAcca
Running out of time to land the life changing bet but I'll keep going. This weekend BetVictor are offering over 580,000/1
Watford
Blackburn
Cardiff
Birmingham
Derby
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Leeds
Peterborough
Millwall v Forest - Draw
Barnsley v Hull - Draw
Bristol City v Huddersfield - Draw
Leicester City v Watford
Leicester aren't that good, they're defiantly not good enough to be 2.0x in this match. They have one win in 11 going back to the 2nd March! Watford have been inconsistent of late but they are still in better from than The Foxes. Leicester should be a minimum of 2.3x here so they have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.06 - Betfair
Blackburn Rovers v Crystal Palace
I want Palace to win this but I just don't think they will. They are looking scared at the moment and seriously lacking in confidence. For them to be given a 37% chance of winning this is just ridiculous. Blackburn aren't a great side but they have won 3 of their last 6, compared to a Palace side who haven't won in 7 and 2 away win since November. I would have Palace priced around the 3.10 mark minimum.
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.64 - Betfair
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town
This game is priced up on the belief that Bristol City just don't care and Huddersfield 'have' to win. That may be true but do they really have a 40% chance of winning this? My answer is no so I'm taking them on.
Lay Huddersfield Town at 2.50 - Betfair
Leeds United v Brighton
Brighton have won 3 of their last 10, admittedly they were impressive last weekend but does that really give them a 42.74% chance of winning this? Yes, Leeds may have nothing to play for but they've won 2 from 3 under Brian McDermott and I'm sure he or the Elland Road crowd will not be happy if they roll over for Brighton.
Lay Brighton at 2.34 - Betfair
*Bet365 are offering 7.67 on all of those lays coming in using their Double Chance coupon
#ToiletRollAcca
Running out of time to land the life changing bet but I'll keep going. This weekend BetVictor are offering over 580,000/1
Watford
Blackburn
Cardiff
Birmingham
Derby
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Leeds
Peterborough
Millwall v Forest - Draw
Barnsley v Hull - Draw
Bristol City v Huddersfield - Draw
Saturday 20 April 2013
The Championship - 20th April
This year just isn't going to plan in the football, my Championship bank is currently sitting at -33.45% after ending 2012 at +128.75.
I'm hoping that all my luck hasn't been used up on the horses after successful Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, but winners are needed quickly, three winning weekends now is the order and that's the plan.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been awful of late, they don't even look like scoring, however Leicester have been just as bad. Palace have made me a lot of money this season when backing them at home at odds against. The come into this game priced up as underdogs and I just can't be having that.
It's do or die really, a draw is probably a better result for Palace than Leicester, but a defeat for Palace and I think they'll miss out on the play-offs. If they win then I think they make them. This is going to come down to the first goal and with the leagues top scorer plus a £15million winger Palace should always be dangerous. Whoever gets it will go on to win the game in my opinion.
Palace have been better than Leicester for the majority of the season and they haven't become a bad side, they just seem to have no confidence since Brighton thrashed them. I have this game priced up at H-2.30 D-3.35 A-3.75. At the prices Palace are the value and have to be backed.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.82 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays over 170,00/1 with Bet365
Huddersfield
Brighton
Watford
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Draw - Burnley v Cardiff
Draw - Sheff. Wed v Ipswich
Draw - Birmingham v Leeds
Draw - Derby v Peterborough
Draw - Forest v Barnsley
I'm hoping that all my luck hasn't been used up on the horses after successful Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, but winners are needed quickly, three winning weekends now is the order and that's the plan.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been awful of late, they don't even look like scoring, however Leicester have been just as bad. Palace have made me a lot of money this season when backing them at home at odds against. The come into this game priced up as underdogs and I just can't be having that.
It's do or die really, a draw is probably a better result for Palace than Leicester, but a defeat for Palace and I think they'll miss out on the play-offs. If they win then I think they make them. This is going to come down to the first goal and with the leagues top scorer plus a £15million winger Palace should always be dangerous. Whoever gets it will go on to win the game in my opinion.
Palace have been better than Leicester for the majority of the season and they haven't become a bad side, they just seem to have no confidence since Brighton thrashed them. I have this game priced up at H-2.30 D-3.35 A-3.75. At the prices Palace are the value and have to be backed.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.82 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays over 170,00/1 with Bet365
Huddersfield
Brighton
Watford
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Draw - Burnley v Cardiff
Draw - Sheff. Wed v Ipswich
Draw - Birmingham v Leeds
Draw - Derby v Peterborough
Draw - Forest v Barnsley
Friday 12 April 2013
The Championship - 12th & 13th April
2013 has been a terrible year for football so far for the highs of +128% on New Years Eve I now find myself having to dip into my initial bank for the 1st time since that start of the season after dropping into the -%. So some winner are need to get back on track and beat the banks.
Leicester City v Birmingham City
When Birmingham cam to Palace the home side were awful. Birmingham ran out 4-0 winners that day. For that game Palace were priced at 1.83 and it's for that reason I have to place this bet. Palace are in better for than Leicester, just, with Leicester having no wins in eight. They haven't kept a clean sheet in eight and the goals have started to dry up, they haven't scored more than one in their last eight either.
Palace are also higher up the league table and have a better home record. Despite the above two points Leicester are priced shorter than Palace were. I can't see the reason for that, other than the belief that teams can buy their way out of this league.
Birmingham are a good side who struggled to adapt to this league, they have some excellent players and are now starting to show a bit of what they are capable of. With everything considered Leicester have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester at 1.74 - Betfair
Wolves v Huddersfield
Two sides who sit side by side in the league on the same amount of points is always games that I like to look at. When I look at these I normal start with the prices at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75 and take it from there. Both these sides are probably better than their league position suggests however the form table shows that Wolves are moving in the direction they should be. Four wins in the last six has given them hope of avoiding the drop and with the players they have they should so it, however they must win on Saturday.
I the season was to start again on Saturday I would rank these two sides a long way apart, I think Wolves are easily top eight quality and would have Huddersfield in around 15th position. Therefore If I was going to price it up then I would have Wolves nearer the 2.00 mark. They haven't shown that they are worse than Huddersfield and their recent form suggests that that are better. therefore I think it's worth backing them to continue their improvement.
Back Wolves at 2.25 - BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
This weekend accumulator pays over 187,000/1 with Bet365
Leicester City v Birmingham City
When Birmingham cam to Palace the home side were awful. Birmingham ran out 4-0 winners that day. For that game Palace were priced at 1.83 and it's for that reason I have to place this bet. Palace are in better for than Leicester, just, with Leicester having no wins in eight. They haven't kept a clean sheet in eight and the goals have started to dry up, they haven't scored more than one in their last eight either.
Palace are also higher up the league table and have a better home record. Despite the above two points Leicester are priced shorter than Palace were. I can't see the reason for that, other than the belief that teams can buy their way out of this league.
Birmingham are a good side who struggled to adapt to this league, they have some excellent players and are now starting to show a bit of what they are capable of. With everything considered Leicester have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester at 1.74 - Betfair
Wolves v Huddersfield
Two sides who sit side by side in the league on the same amount of points is always games that I like to look at. When I look at these I normal start with the prices at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75 and take it from there. Both these sides are probably better than their league position suggests however the form table shows that Wolves are moving in the direction they should be. Four wins in the last six has given them hope of avoiding the drop and with the players they have they should so it, however they must win on Saturday.
I the season was to start again on Saturday I would rank these two sides a long way apart, I think Wolves are easily top eight quality and would have Huddersfield in around 15th position. Therefore If I was going to price it up then I would have Wolves nearer the 2.00 mark. They haven't shown that they are worse than Huddersfield and their recent form suggests that that are better. therefore I think it's worth backing them to continue their improvement.
Back Wolves at 2.25 - BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
This weekend accumulator pays over 187,000/1 with Bet365
Saturday 6 April 2013
The Championship - 6th April
2013 has been an awful year on the football for me and I now find my Championship bank not in profit for the first time this season. I now have 5 weeks left to beat the banks interest rate, so I need two more winners than losers in that time. I'm confident that I can do it based on my for in the first half of the season.
Fortunately this year hasn't been all bad, I've had a profitable Australian Open, Six Nations, Cheltenham Festival and Aintree has done me well this week.
Birmingham City v Millwall
I sided with Birmingham last on Monday and they capitulated in the 1st half hour against Wolves by going 3-0 down. They managed to fight back to 2-3 in that game and will hopefully take heart from that and put in a performance here. Before that defeat they were on a three game winning run. Their form this year has seen them climb away from relegation trouble, a win on Monday would have given them an outside chance of the play-offs.
Millwall's form has been patchy in 2013, they started badly but have improved as their cup run went on. They now have a semi-final next week so a few minds may be on that especially as relegation looks to be staved of this year.
The odds suggest that Millwall have the slightly better side, however league position and current form doesn't show this.
Back Birmingham City at 2.38 - BetVictor
Brighton v Leicester City
I can't work out why Brighton are priced larger than 2.25 for this game. Leicester may have the largest wage bill in the league but that's no use when you're bottom of the form table with one win in ten and you're struggling to score goals.
Brighton are better than Leicester, they have better players and in Ulloa they seem to have found a goalscorer. Brighton are on a run of two defeats in eleven, having won five of those. Their high number of draws this season is a cause for concern but a lot of that is due to their wastefulness in front of goal.
A win from Brighton today and they'll almost certainly be in the play-offs barring a disaster final four games and these odds look to high.
Back Brighton at 2.48 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays out at over 90,000/1 with BetVictor this weekend.
Fortunately this year hasn't been all bad, I've had a profitable Australian Open, Six Nations, Cheltenham Festival and Aintree has done me well this week.
Birmingham City v Millwall
I sided with Birmingham last on Monday and they capitulated in the 1st half hour against Wolves by going 3-0 down. They managed to fight back to 2-3 in that game and will hopefully take heart from that and put in a performance here. Before that defeat they were on a three game winning run. Their form this year has seen them climb away from relegation trouble, a win on Monday would have given them an outside chance of the play-offs.
Millwall's form has been patchy in 2013, they started badly but have improved as their cup run went on. They now have a semi-final next week so a few minds may be on that especially as relegation looks to be staved of this year.
The odds suggest that Millwall have the slightly better side, however league position and current form doesn't show this.
Back Birmingham City at 2.38 - BetVictor
Brighton v Leicester City
I can't work out why Brighton are priced larger than 2.25 for this game. Leicester may have the largest wage bill in the league but that's no use when you're bottom of the form table with one win in ten and you're struggling to score goals.
Brighton are better than Leicester, they have better players and in Ulloa they seem to have found a goalscorer. Brighton are on a run of two defeats in eleven, having won five of those. Their high number of draws this season is a cause for concern but a lot of that is due to their wastefulness in front of goal.
A win from Brighton today and they'll almost certainly be in the play-offs barring a disaster final four games and these odds look to high.
Back Brighton at 2.48 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays out at over 90,000/1 with BetVictor this weekend.
Friday 5 April 2013
Aintree - Day 3
Managed to get the clean sweep at Aintree on Friday, but that was a card where if you kept it simple you would have found the winners. Saturday looks a lot tougher, but at the prices one winner should bring a profit.
1:45 Aintree - Novices Hurdle
The one that interests me in this race is Utopie Des Bordes. She raced well for most of her last outing at Cheltenham over 3 miles on soft ground. That race was won by At Fishers Cross, who was impressive in winning here on Friday. She drops back in trip here to 2m4f and has good ground which I think will help here here. She's in receipt of 5lbs due to the fillies' and mare allowance, so taking Dodging Bullets out of the equation she should have the beating of these. Therefore if she runs to form and Dodging Bullets continues to regress then she has a real chance at a good price
Back Utopie Des Bordes at 6.0 - General
2:50 Aintree - Liverpool Hurdle
To say I've followed this horse over the cliff would be an understatement, I'm currently drowning at the bottom of a waterfall after backing Grands Crus since his Feltham victory back in 2011. He's now been switched back to hurdling and flopping as a chaser. This will probably be the last time I back him if he doesn't win, but before you write me off as a loon here's my reasoning.
As a hurdler his 2011 form was solid. he finished 2nd twice to the best staying hurdler I've ever seen, Big Bucks. On that form he would have won this years World Hurdle, which was won by the favourite in this race, Solwhit, who I backed at 10/1.
On the belief that he can run to that form again and chasing just wasn't his thing I have to give him one last chance.
Back Grands Crus at 7.0 - General
4:15 Aintree - The Grand National
Shock horror I'm getting involved in a big handicap! These aren't really my kind of races but you can't blog about Aintree and not try and give out the winner of this race. I'm going to keep it simple otherwise I could make a case for 39 of these.
Chicago Grey stays longer than the mother in law however his tactics of running from the back my cause him issues as it did last year when he was brought down. He looked like he was taking to the fences. I think he is one of the class horses in the race and he comes here off a lower mark than last year. The trainer has won this race before and this horse has been aimed at this race all year. If he's still on his feet three out I can see him pulling clear in the final furlong and making it look easy.
Back Chicago Grey at 13.0 - General
It looks very much a day for small stakes and there is no need to blow the profits made so far from this meeting. A £1 each-way Patent (£14 total stake) pays around £830 if they all win. However if one wins it will return a profit.
I will also be having win singles on each of these for level stakes.
1:45 Aintree - Novices Hurdle
The one that interests me in this race is Utopie Des Bordes. She raced well for most of her last outing at Cheltenham over 3 miles on soft ground. That race was won by At Fishers Cross, who was impressive in winning here on Friday. She drops back in trip here to 2m4f and has good ground which I think will help here here. She's in receipt of 5lbs due to the fillies' and mare allowance, so taking Dodging Bullets out of the equation she should have the beating of these. Therefore if she runs to form and Dodging Bullets continues to regress then she has a real chance at a good price
Back Utopie Des Bordes at 6.0 - General
2:50 Aintree - Liverpool Hurdle
To say I've followed this horse over the cliff would be an understatement, I'm currently drowning at the bottom of a waterfall after backing Grands Crus since his Feltham victory back in 2011. He's now been switched back to hurdling and flopping as a chaser. This will probably be the last time I back him if he doesn't win, but before you write me off as a loon here's my reasoning.
As a hurdler his 2011 form was solid. he finished 2nd twice to the best staying hurdler I've ever seen, Big Bucks. On that form he would have won this years World Hurdle, which was won by the favourite in this race, Solwhit, who I backed at 10/1.
On the belief that he can run to that form again and chasing just wasn't his thing I have to give him one last chance.
Back Grands Crus at 7.0 - General
4:15 Aintree - The Grand National
Shock horror I'm getting involved in a big handicap! These aren't really my kind of races but you can't blog about Aintree and not try and give out the winner of this race. I'm going to keep it simple otherwise I could make a case for 39 of these.
Chicago Grey stays longer than the mother in law however his tactics of running from the back my cause him issues as it did last year when he was brought down. He looked like he was taking to the fences. I think he is one of the class horses in the race and he comes here off a lower mark than last year. The trainer has won this race before and this horse has been aimed at this race all year. If he's still on his feet three out I can see him pulling clear in the final furlong and making it look easy.
Back Chicago Grey at 13.0 - General
It looks very much a day for small stakes and there is no need to blow the profits made so far from this meeting. A £1 each-way Patent (£14 total stake) pays around £830 if they all win. However if one wins it will return a profit.
I will also be having win singles on each of these for level stakes.
Aintree - Day 2
I got two winner and two thrids yesterday to bring up a profit. However some of my followers backed my selections in each-way 4-folds and got some tidy profits, I recieved this email today;
Hahaha bet £100 each way yesterday on the 4 horses £670 back!! ;) spunked it in a strip bar last night!! Doh!! loooool
Today poses some interesting questions with two odds-on favourites but I'm going to try and keep it simple as over-complicating things would just make it more difficult than it needs to be.
2:00 Aintree - Novices' Hurdle
My Tent Or Yours is a horse I like but I had to take it on at Cheltenham as I thought Champagne Fever had better claims at a bigger price. It comes here and on form and ratings it looks like it should win this doing handstands.
I just can't really find anyhting to oppose it with. Zuider Zee is up in class and doesn't look like it can cause an upset here. Forgotten Voice is the main danger but it's a hard horse to settle and that may be an issue of a mudduling pace. If he runs to form you still need MTOY to run well below par for him to beat him.
My only real concern is if MTOY has had too much racing this year, I think he would have had enough rest since Cheltenham and The New One showed yesterday that you can run a big race, as a novice, after Cheltenham if you have the class.
Back My Tent Or Yours at 1.44 - General
2:30 Aintree - Novices' Chase
I was convinced that Dynaste would win at the festival and it still hurst that his 2nd place cost me a nice payout on my 80/1 accumulator. He looked the winner in-running, touched 1/3 but then was out battled up the hill, when he found nothing after the last.
The key for me in this though is the impressive performance of Captain Conan yesterday. Captain Conan finished 5th at Cheltenham, just over a length behind Dynaste. To me that shows that The Jewsons wasn't really an enrergy sapping race, so I'm not worried by this coming just three weeks later.
I believe that Dyanste ran below par that day as on all the form he has shown you would of expected him to power up the hill and win that by 3-4 lengths. if you belive that he ran below par and he can be back to form in this then the price is massive value. Even factoring in that good ground isn't his best I still have to back at the prices.
Back Dynaste at 3.05 - Betfair
3:05 Aintree - Melling Chase
I've ummed and arred over ti srace for a week or so now, there are so many ways you can look at it! Flemenstar is a horse that I never fancied over 3m+ as he cruises in his races but then empties in the last four furlongs, so 2m4f looks his best trip.
Cue Card is a classy horse and it's form was boosted yesterday by First Leuitenant winning. The drop back in trip has helped after he finished 20 lenghts behind Long Run in the King George.
However having said all of this Sprinter Sacre has just looked class over fences. He beat Cue Card in The Arkle last year and now they matchup again in over a longer trip. I'm glad that he is taking this route as it could be easy to stay in his comfort zone of two miles. Henderson does like to train his horses for speed rather than stamina but that doesn't really look to be much of an issue here. They'll be going ridiculousy quick in this as it's a flat track and good ground. I can just see that playing into Sprinter Sacres handsust think he'll have them all working to stay with him three out adn if he doesn't make mistakes they'll won't be able to catch him if Geraghty has to give him a shake of the reigns.
In short he's 1.36 to win this however after the race the most likely thing we'll be saying is that he should of been 1.20.
Back Sprinter Sacre at 1.36 - Betfair
The win treble on these three pays a little over 9/2 (5.59) with BetVictor, and they'll match your first bet upto with a free bet of up to £25 here
Hahaha bet £100 each way yesterday on the 4 horses £670 back!! ;) spunked it in a strip bar last night!! Doh!! loooool
Today poses some interesting questions with two odds-on favourites but I'm going to try and keep it simple as over-complicating things would just make it more difficult than it needs to be.
2:00 Aintree - Novices' Hurdle
My Tent Or Yours is a horse I like but I had to take it on at Cheltenham as I thought Champagne Fever had better claims at a bigger price. It comes here and on form and ratings it looks like it should win this doing handstands.
I just can't really find anyhting to oppose it with. Zuider Zee is up in class and doesn't look like it can cause an upset here. Forgotten Voice is the main danger but it's a hard horse to settle and that may be an issue of a mudduling pace. If he runs to form you still need MTOY to run well below par for him to beat him.
My only real concern is if MTOY has had too much racing this year, I think he would have had enough rest since Cheltenham and The New One showed yesterday that you can run a big race, as a novice, after Cheltenham if you have the class.
Back My Tent Or Yours at 1.44 - General
2:30 Aintree - Novices' Chase
I was convinced that Dynaste would win at the festival and it still hurst that his 2nd place cost me a nice payout on my 80/1 accumulator. He looked the winner in-running, touched 1/3 but then was out battled up the hill, when he found nothing after the last.
The key for me in this though is the impressive performance of Captain Conan yesterday. Captain Conan finished 5th at Cheltenham, just over a length behind Dynaste. To me that shows that The Jewsons wasn't really an enrergy sapping race, so I'm not worried by this coming just three weeks later.
I believe that Dyanste ran below par that day as on all the form he has shown you would of expected him to power up the hill and win that by 3-4 lengths. if you belive that he ran below par and he can be back to form in this then the price is massive value. Even factoring in that good ground isn't his best I still have to back at the prices.
Back Dynaste at 3.05 - Betfair
3:05 Aintree - Melling Chase
I've ummed and arred over ti srace for a week or so now, there are so many ways you can look at it! Flemenstar is a horse that I never fancied over 3m+ as he cruises in his races but then empties in the last four furlongs, so 2m4f looks his best trip.
Cue Card is a classy horse and it's form was boosted yesterday by First Leuitenant winning. The drop back in trip has helped after he finished 20 lenghts behind Long Run in the King George.
However having said all of this Sprinter Sacre has just looked class over fences. He beat Cue Card in The Arkle last year and now they matchup again in over a longer trip. I'm glad that he is taking this route as it could be easy to stay in his comfort zone of two miles. Henderson does like to train his horses for speed rather than stamina but that doesn't really look to be much of an issue here. They'll be going ridiculousy quick in this as it's a flat track and good ground. I can just see that playing into Sprinter Sacres handsust think he'll have them all working to stay with him three out adn if he doesn't make mistakes they'll won't be able to catch him if Geraghty has to give him a shake of the reigns.
In short he's 1.36 to win this however after the race the most likely thing we'll be saying is that he should of been 1.20.
Back Sprinter Sacre at 1.36 - Betfair
The win treble on these three pays a little over 9/2 (5.59) with BetVictor, and they'll match your first bet upto with a free bet of up to £25 here
Wednesday 3 April 2013
Aintree - Day 1
It always surprises me how many people think the Grand National meeting is just one race on a Saturday afternoon. Somebody actually said to me the other day that they can't wait to see Sprinter Sacre in the National! We have three days consisting of some top grade one action and Thursday is the best of them.
I'm making the trip up to Liverpool for this so I'm hoping like Cheltenham I can come back having made another profit.
2:00 Aintree - Juvenile Hurdle
With Aintree coming only three weeks after Cheltenham I'm inclined to look for horses that missed the festival or didn't have particularly hard races. For that reason I'm against Rolling Star here. I am instead going for a horse he beat at Cheltenham back in January.
Irish Saint has shown his best form in this country on flat tracks with both his wins coming at Kempton. With him missing the festival and coming straight here I think he's the value pick in what looks to be a head to head between the top two in the market.
Back Irish Saint at 4.30 - Betfair
2:30 Aintree - Betfred Bowl
This race is all about Silviniaco Conti. Many fancied him for The Gold Cup, I wasn't one of those people. That race was only 20 days ago and I feel that a strongly run race on soft ground isn't a great prep run for this. Especially after falling last time out.
I back First Lieutenant in The Ryanair and he finished a distant 2nd to Cue Card. Cue Card is a classy horse and when it goes right for him he's very impressive. I don't think that The Ryanair would have taken as much out of First Lieutenant as The Gold Cup took out of Silviniaco Conti. If that proves correct then First Lieutenant should win this race.
Another factor to consider is the horses coming here fresh. Quito De La Roque is a course and distance winner, comes here fresh and off the back of a winning run.
With all that in mind I think it's worth taking on the favourite with the Gigginstown pair.
Back First Lieutenant at 4.60 for 72.29% of Total Stake - Betfair
Back Quito De La Roque at 12.0 for 27.71% of Total Stake - Betfair
If one of them win it pays out at 3.32
3:05 Aintree - Aintree Hurdle
This has the potential to be the race of the season so it's difficult to know where to start, so I'm going through them in racecard order;
Countrywide Flame
Consistent horse and on ratings is the second best in the race, however it's now been involved in three tough races on the trot and I feel the Champion Hurdle will take its toll.
Grandouet
This horse travels well and has so much promise but can't be trusted.
Oscar Whiskey
Has won this race the last two year, beating Thousand Stars by a neck each time. However I think that the World Hurdle after a gruelling 3m on heavy in January will have taken it's toll here.
Prospect Wells
Not good enough on all known form.
Raya Star
Already beaten by Zarkandar and Oscar Whiskey this season so hard see form being reversed and was also very disappointing last time out.
Saphir River
No Chance
The New One
This horse is class and he proved it at Cheltenham. However I don't want to be backing at the prices. He's already had five races this season and for a novice that may show.
Thousand Stars
Beaten a neck in this for the last two years and this race has been the aim all season. He skipped the festival with this in mind. Good ground seems to bring his best performances and he hasn't had that in Ireland this year. I think he'll come here and put in his best performance.
Zarkandar
Another Nicholls who was tipped by many at The Festival, however I just couldn't see it on form lines.I'm not even sure he gets this trip. He weakened at the end of this years Champion Hurdle and fell in this race last year when put under pressure.
With the form in mind I and a fresh horse I just can't see why Thousand stars is that price.
Back Thousand Stars at 13.5 - Betfair
4:50 Aintree - Novices' Chase
Captain Conan was travelling like a dream at Cheltenham but completely faded up this hill. This flatter track should bring the best out of him. He was 2nd to Darlan here last year but finished seven lengths clear of the third. If Cheltenham didn't take to much out of him and it was just the hill that got to him last time then he could make a mockery of these odds.
Back Captain Conan at 2.70 - Betfair
I'm making the trip up to Liverpool for this so I'm hoping like Cheltenham I can come back having made another profit.
2:00 Aintree - Juvenile Hurdle
With Aintree coming only three weeks after Cheltenham I'm inclined to look for horses that missed the festival or didn't have particularly hard races. For that reason I'm against Rolling Star here. I am instead going for a horse he beat at Cheltenham back in January.
Irish Saint has shown his best form in this country on flat tracks with both his wins coming at Kempton. With him missing the festival and coming straight here I think he's the value pick in what looks to be a head to head between the top two in the market.
Back Irish Saint at 4.30 - Betfair
2:30 Aintree - Betfred Bowl
This race is all about Silviniaco Conti. Many fancied him for The Gold Cup, I wasn't one of those people. That race was only 20 days ago and I feel that a strongly run race on soft ground isn't a great prep run for this. Especially after falling last time out.
I back First Lieutenant in The Ryanair and he finished a distant 2nd to Cue Card. Cue Card is a classy horse and when it goes right for him he's very impressive. I don't think that The Ryanair would have taken as much out of First Lieutenant as The Gold Cup took out of Silviniaco Conti. If that proves correct then First Lieutenant should win this race.
Another factor to consider is the horses coming here fresh. Quito De La Roque is a course and distance winner, comes here fresh and off the back of a winning run.
With all that in mind I think it's worth taking on the favourite with the Gigginstown pair.
Back First Lieutenant at 4.60 for 72.29% of Total Stake - Betfair
Back Quito De La Roque at 12.0 for 27.71% of Total Stake - Betfair
If one of them win it pays out at 3.32
3:05 Aintree - Aintree Hurdle
This has the potential to be the race of the season so it's difficult to know where to start, so I'm going through them in racecard order;
Countrywide Flame
Consistent horse and on ratings is the second best in the race, however it's now been involved in three tough races on the trot and I feel the Champion Hurdle will take its toll.
Grandouet
This horse travels well and has so much promise but can't be trusted.
Oscar Whiskey
Has won this race the last two year, beating Thousand Stars by a neck each time. However I think that the World Hurdle after a gruelling 3m on heavy in January will have taken it's toll here.
Prospect Wells
Not good enough on all known form.
Raya Star
Already beaten by Zarkandar and Oscar Whiskey this season so hard see form being reversed and was also very disappointing last time out.
Saphir River
No Chance
The New One
This horse is class and he proved it at Cheltenham. However I don't want to be backing at the prices. He's already had five races this season and for a novice that may show.
Thousand Stars
Beaten a neck in this for the last two years and this race has been the aim all season. He skipped the festival with this in mind. Good ground seems to bring his best performances and he hasn't had that in Ireland this year. I think he'll come here and put in his best performance.
Zarkandar
Another Nicholls who was tipped by many at The Festival, however I just couldn't see it on form lines.I'm not even sure he gets this trip. He weakened at the end of this years Champion Hurdle and fell in this race last year when put under pressure.
With the form in mind I and a fresh horse I just can't see why Thousand stars is that price.
Back Thousand Stars at 13.5 - Betfair
4:50 Aintree - Novices' Chase
Captain Conan was travelling like a dream at Cheltenham but completely faded up this hill. This flatter track should bring the best out of him. He was 2nd to Darlan here last year but finished seven lengths clear of the third. If Cheltenham didn't take to much out of him and it was just the hill that got to him last time then he could make a mockery of these odds.
Back Captain Conan at 2.70 - Betfair
Monday 1 April 2013
The Championship - 1st & 2nd April
Friday and Saturday brought a very disappointing end to this months football with 93rd minute equalisers and Bolton getting beaten from 2-0 up. Thankfully I was on form with the horses after backing Tangerine Trees at 4.10 and St. Nicholas Abbey at 4.40.
This months has to be a good month if the banks are going to beaten so I'm hoping that I get the luck that so far hasn't really been there in 2013.
Barnsley v Leicester City
The league table shows that Leicester are superior to Barnsley, however they are underachieving again. After spending large sums of money on average players they now look like they are going to miss the play-offs. The goals have dried up, they've only managed to score more than once in a game once in their last ten games. They currently sit bottom of the form table with a 0-2-4 record. In that time time they've kept no clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions.
They now travel to a Barnsley side who have won five of their last six home games, kept three clean sheets in that time and have not failed to score. The recent statistics suggest that one goal will be enough for Barnsley to get something out of this game. With that in mind I think it's worth taking Leicester on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.30 - Betfair
Birmingham City v Wolves
I'm going to take Friday's performance out of my thinking for this game. They were impressive at Palace but I don't want that to cloud my judgement. Previous to that they were on a 3-2-1 record, they are a team in form. They now sit second in the form table, but most importantly they are beginning to score goals.
Wolves are another team improving and they really need to otherwise they are down. They are currently sixth in the form table with a 3-1-2 record.
The way I'm looking at this game is on the belief that Birmingham can continue the from they are showing and avoid defeat here. Wolves now look to have some fight about them which they were missing since August, therefore I want to get the draw on my side. Wolves should be a minimum of 3.75 here whilst the Birmingham price looks about right.
Lay Wolves at 3.60 - Betfair
Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday
Bristol City's current home form is 5-1-0. Since Sean O'Driscoll has taken over they've been a revelation at home. They kept clean sheets, four in the last six at Ashton Gate, and now have a chance of staying up. However do do that they must win today. This game will be nervy and scrappy but I believe that this will come down to home advantage.
Back Bristol City at 2.58 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
The below pays out at over 32,000/1 with BetVictor.
This months has to be a good month if the banks are going to beaten so I'm hoping that I get the luck that so far hasn't really been there in 2013.
Barnsley v Leicester City
The league table shows that Leicester are superior to Barnsley, however they are underachieving again. After spending large sums of money on average players they now look like they are going to miss the play-offs. The goals have dried up, they've only managed to score more than once in a game once in their last ten games. They currently sit bottom of the form table with a 0-2-4 record. In that time time they've kept no clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions.
They now travel to a Barnsley side who have won five of their last six home games, kept three clean sheets in that time and have not failed to score. The recent statistics suggest that one goal will be enough for Barnsley to get something out of this game. With that in mind I think it's worth taking Leicester on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.30 - Betfair
Birmingham City v Wolves
I'm going to take Friday's performance out of my thinking for this game. They were impressive at Palace but I don't want that to cloud my judgement. Previous to that they were on a 3-2-1 record, they are a team in form. They now sit second in the form table, but most importantly they are beginning to score goals.
Wolves are another team improving and they really need to otherwise they are down. They are currently sixth in the form table with a 3-1-2 record.
The way I'm looking at this game is on the belief that Birmingham can continue the from they are showing and avoid defeat here. Wolves now look to have some fight about them which they were missing since August, therefore I want to get the draw on my side. Wolves should be a minimum of 3.75 here whilst the Birmingham price looks about right.
Lay Wolves at 3.60 - Betfair
Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday
Bristol City's current home form is 5-1-0. Since Sean O'Driscoll has taken over they've been a revelation at home. They kept clean sheets, four in the last six at Ashton Gate, and now have a chance of staying up. However do do that they must win today. This game will be nervy and scrappy but I believe that this will come down to home advantage.
Back Bristol City at 2.58 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
The below pays out at over 32,000/1 with BetVictor.
Saturday 30 March 2013
The Championship - 30th March
Yesterday didn't go as it was meant to with Watford conceding a 93rd minute goal to draw 3-3 against my betting bogey team, Burnley. I could really do with a clean sweep today to end the month on a high.
Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers
I fancy Bolton to finish 6th this season, they are timing their run to perfection. They currently sit second in the form table with a 5-0-1 record. In this time they have kept three clean sheets. Charlton have the worst home record in the league, with only four wins all season. They have also only managed only two clean sheets and only scored more than one goal at home on five occasions .
A 1-0 win look there for the taking for Bolton and if they take the lead I don't expect them to concede.
Back Bolton Wanderers at 2.62 - Betfair
Ipswich Town v Leeds United
Leeds are now winless in four and their only win in six was a fortunate 1-0 win over Millwall. They did look like they were poised for a late play-off charge but they now look to have run out of steam. The players know the manager will be off in the summer, there's yet more uncertainty around the ownership and the players may now just be thinking about their summer holidays.
Ipswich come into this with a recent record of 2-2-2 but have picked up maximum points on four of their last six home games. They know that a win here will probably leave them one win from safety.
Back Ipswich Town at 2.25 - Coral
Nottingham Forest v Brighton
Nottingham Forest are the form team in the league with six straight wins. A win over 7th placed Brighton will but them four points clear and will be a massive boost to their play-off credentials. The odds suggest that these teams are of equal ability, however taking the form of Forest in to account I think their is a touch of value.
Palace were clueless against Brighton last week, however they did deserve their victory. This looks a different prospect though. I can see Forest taking the initiative here and running out comfortable winners.
Back Nottingham Forest at 2.24 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca Part 2
After yesterday's acca not coming in I'll have to go back to having 50p on this instead of the £112 I would of liked. It pays out at over 830/1 with BetVictor.
Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers
I fancy Bolton to finish 6th this season, they are timing their run to perfection. They currently sit second in the form table with a 5-0-1 record. In this time they have kept three clean sheets. Charlton have the worst home record in the league, with only four wins all season. They have also only managed only two clean sheets and only scored more than one goal at home on five occasions .
A 1-0 win look there for the taking for Bolton and if they take the lead I don't expect them to concede.
Back Bolton Wanderers at 2.62 - Betfair
Ipswich Town v Leeds United
Leeds are now winless in four and their only win in six was a fortunate 1-0 win over Millwall. They did look like they were poised for a late play-off charge but they now look to have run out of steam. The players know the manager will be off in the summer, there's yet more uncertainty around the ownership and the players may now just be thinking about their summer holidays.
Ipswich come into this with a recent record of 2-2-2 but have picked up maximum points on four of their last six home games. They know that a win here will probably leave them one win from safety.
Back Ipswich Town at 2.25 - Coral
Nottingham Forest v Brighton
Nottingham Forest are the form team in the league with six straight wins. A win over 7th placed Brighton will but them four points clear and will be a massive boost to their play-off credentials. The odds suggest that these teams are of equal ability, however taking the form of Forest in to account I think their is a touch of value.
Palace were clueless against Brighton last week, however they did deserve their victory. This looks a different prospect though. I can see Forest taking the initiative here and running out comfortable winners.
Back Nottingham Forest at 2.24 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca Part 2
After yesterday's acca not coming in I'll have to go back to having 50p on this instead of the £112 I would of liked. It pays out at over 830/1 with BetVictor.
Friday 29 March 2013
The Championship - 29th March
After the most boring weekend of sport in history we get back to basics with The Championship. It's a massive few days in this league with some big games at both ends of the table.
Watford v Burnley
Watford are sitting 5th in the form table whilst Burnley are down in 21st. I said a while ago that I wouldn't touch another Burnley game this season but the odds look too good here. With Watford winning 10 of their 19 home games it would suggest that they should be around the 1.90 mark to start with. Burnley look an average side and will finish comfortably mid-table. I think that Watford will come out firing here knowing that a win moves them into 2nd place and puts the on Hull who they play on Tuesday.
Back Watford at 1.95 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca Part1
I'm going to do the acca in two part this week as I'm splitting the blog up and writing about tomorrows football later. The first five results pay out at 225/1 with BetVictor.
Watford v Burnley
Watford are sitting 5th in the form table whilst Burnley are down in 21st. I said a while ago that I wouldn't touch another Burnley game this season but the odds look too good here. With Watford winning 10 of their 19 home games it would suggest that they should be around the 1.90 mark to start with. Burnley look an average side and will finish comfortably mid-table. I think that Watford will come out firing here knowing that a win moves them into 2nd place and puts the on Hull who they play on Tuesday.
Back Watford at 1.95 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca Part1
I'm going to do the acca in two part this week as I'm splitting the blog up and writing about tomorrows football later. The first five results pay out at 225/1 with BetVictor.
Saturday 16 March 2013
The Championship - 16th & 17th March
Cheltenham is done and dusted for another year and it's another profit. I managed to get 9 winners from 14 bets, a £10 level stake on my selections would have returned £240. My personal highlights were seeing Hurricane Fly regain his crown and The New One beating the Irish Banker. The low point of the week for me was Dynaste, he traded at 1/3 in-running and looked the winner. If he had won I would have landed and 80/1 ante-post accumulator.
But it's back to the main bank now and I'm still beating the banks interest rates with nine games left this season.
Leeds United v Huddersfield Town
I watched Leeds at Palace last weekend and they're not a bad side. They were outplayed at times but showed a lot of fight and spirit to get themselves back into the game and then take the lead. A performance like that away to other sides in this league and they would have picked up the three points.
Leeds are currently on a run of six games unbeaten and sit 7th in the form table. As always they are strong at home with a 11-3-4 record. Their only defeat in their last 10 at Elland Road was an unlucky 1-0 loss against Cardiff.
Huddersfield have only won three of their last 21 games. However things have improved slightly since Mark Robins took over have won two of their last six. A 1-0 defeat at home to Charlton last time out though doesn't inspire much confidence. Defensively they are the worst side away from home in the division conceding and average of 2.33 goals per game on their travels. They have already conceded six goals twice and four goals three times.
Back Leeds United at 1.95 - BetVictor
Hull v Nottingham Forest
Forest come here as the form team in the league since Billy Davies has taken over. They have won five and drawn one. The draw in that run was six games ago against Bolton, who have now also won their last five. They travel to Hull this weekend, they are 5th in the form table and 2nd in the league. The signing of George Boyd has been massive for them he's given them some impetuous up front and they now look like they can score goals.
I'm taking this bet on instinct because from what I have seen of Hull this season, they're not actually that good. If you can get the first goal against them you'll be able to score a few more, as Sheffield Wednesday showed when they came here. On the other hand they have games where they create loads but can't hit a barn door. I can see Forest getting something out of this game and think they'll win it if they get the first goals. I do however want the draw on my side.
Lay Hull at 2.22 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
It's a tough weekend in The Championship so the acca is paying out at over 660,000/1 with BetVictor.
But it's back to the main bank now and I'm still beating the banks interest rates with nine games left this season.
Leeds United v Huddersfield Town
I watched Leeds at Palace last weekend and they're not a bad side. They were outplayed at times but showed a lot of fight and spirit to get themselves back into the game and then take the lead. A performance like that away to other sides in this league and they would have picked up the three points.
Leeds are currently on a run of six games unbeaten and sit 7th in the form table. As always they are strong at home with a 11-3-4 record. Their only defeat in their last 10 at Elland Road was an unlucky 1-0 loss against Cardiff.
Huddersfield have only won three of their last 21 games. However things have improved slightly since Mark Robins took over have won two of their last six. A 1-0 defeat at home to Charlton last time out though doesn't inspire much confidence. Defensively they are the worst side away from home in the division conceding and average of 2.33 goals per game on their travels. They have already conceded six goals twice and four goals three times.
Back Leeds United at 1.95 - BetVictor
Hull v Nottingham Forest
Forest come here as the form team in the league since Billy Davies has taken over. They have won five and drawn one. The draw in that run was six games ago against Bolton, who have now also won their last five. They travel to Hull this weekend, they are 5th in the form table and 2nd in the league. The signing of George Boyd has been massive for them he's given them some impetuous up front and they now look like they can score goals.
I'm taking this bet on instinct because from what I have seen of Hull this season, they're not actually that good. If you can get the first goal against them you'll be able to score a few more, as Sheffield Wednesday showed when they came here. On the other hand they have games where they create loads but can't hit a barn door. I can see Forest getting something out of this game and think they'll win it if they get the first goals. I do however want the draw on my side.
Lay Hull at 2.22 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
It's a tough weekend in The Championship so the acca is paying out at over 660,000/1 with BetVictor.
Thursday 14 March 2013
Cheltenham Festival Day 4
Yesterday didn't go exactly to plan, I made a total profit of £2.67 thanks to Solwhit at 9/1 (advised via Twitter) recovering the losses I made on Dynaste coming second after looking the winner and trading at 1/3 in running and First Lieutenant hitting a fence when getting into contention to also finish second.
If truth be told I not been fully efficient this week despite 7 winners from 11. My staking plan has been truly awful. To put it into context if I had decided to bet £10 each on all of my selections then I would be +£227, I would also only of had to put my hand in my pocket for the 1st race as I picked a 7/1 winner in that. So instead of my being in the four figure profit range, I'm in three figures due to overstaking/understaking.
Anyway it's been three profitable days and hopefully I can make it four with Friday's selections.
Triumph Hurdle - 1:30 Cheltenham
I'm always banging on about course and distance form, won last time out etc etc. There are two horses that tick those boxes for me in this Rolling Star and Far West. I've been saying for a while that I didn't think Nicholl's would have a winner this week and so far that's proved correct. Therefore I'm going to stick to my guns and oppose Far West.
Back Rolling Star - 4.5 General
Albert Bartlett - 14:40 Cheltenham
Again looking at this race there is one horse that fits my profile and this one has the added bonus of having its form franked this week. At Fishers Cross beat The New One at Cheltenham back in January and on Wednesday The New One was one of the most impressive winners of the week when landing the Neptune. Back in December At Fishers Cross again won at Cheltenham but with this years Coral Cup winner Medinas back in fourth.
The form line with this horse are solid, the only concern for me is the ground. He's usually been a runner on Soft or Heavy so genuine quick Good ground is an unknown.
Back At Fishers Cross - 4.00 Betfair
The Gold Cup - 3:20 Cheltenham
This race is simple for me, which is all the more gutting that Dynaste cost me my ante-post accumulator. Bobs Worth has the best form in this race and loves it round Cheltenham, four starts and four wins. His form on all the others in this race is the strongest based on his Hennessey run.
Long Run is an obvious danger but I can't be backing him, already beaten by Silviniaco Conti this season and an awful round of jumping in the King George mean I can't be backing him. The main danger to Bobs Worth is the other horse form my ante-post bet, Sir Des Champs. When he won the Jewsons last year I instantly thought Gold Cup winner. He comes into his own at this time of the year and loves Cheltenham, two runs and two wins in consecutive festivals.
I want them both on my side so I'm splitting my stake between them.
Back Bobs Worth for 57.61% of stake - 3.90 Betfair
Back Sir Des Champs 42.39% of stake - 5.30 Betfair
I've had a good week and will be in profit with whatever happens to the above, but hopefully we can have the perfect end to the festival and do what we threatened on Tuesday and Wednesday, get a clean sweep of winners!
If truth be told I not been fully efficient this week despite 7 winners from 11. My staking plan has been truly awful. To put it into context if I had decided to bet £10 each on all of my selections then I would be +£227, I would also only of had to put my hand in my pocket for the 1st race as I picked a 7/1 winner in that. So instead of my being in the four figure profit range, I'm in three figures due to overstaking/understaking.
Anyway it's been three profitable days and hopefully I can make it four with Friday's selections.
Triumph Hurdle - 1:30 Cheltenham
I'm always banging on about course and distance form, won last time out etc etc. There are two horses that tick those boxes for me in this Rolling Star and Far West. I've been saying for a while that I didn't think Nicholl's would have a winner this week and so far that's proved correct. Therefore I'm going to stick to my guns and oppose Far West.
Back Rolling Star - 4.5 General
Albert Bartlett - 14:40 Cheltenham
Again looking at this race there is one horse that fits my profile and this one has the added bonus of having its form franked this week. At Fishers Cross beat The New One at Cheltenham back in January and on Wednesday The New One was one of the most impressive winners of the week when landing the Neptune. Back in December At Fishers Cross again won at Cheltenham but with this years Coral Cup winner Medinas back in fourth.
The form line with this horse are solid, the only concern for me is the ground. He's usually been a runner on Soft or Heavy so genuine quick Good ground is an unknown.
Back At Fishers Cross - 4.00 Betfair
The Gold Cup - 3:20 Cheltenham
This race is simple for me, which is all the more gutting that Dynaste cost me my ante-post accumulator. Bobs Worth has the best form in this race and loves it round Cheltenham, four starts and four wins. His form on all the others in this race is the strongest based on his Hennessey run.
Long Run is an obvious danger but I can't be backing him, already beaten by Silviniaco Conti this season and an awful round of jumping in the King George mean I can't be backing him. The main danger to Bobs Worth is the other horse form my ante-post bet, Sir Des Champs. When he won the Jewsons last year I instantly thought Gold Cup winner. He comes into his own at this time of the year and loves Cheltenham, two runs and two wins in consecutive festivals.
I want them both on my side so I'm splitting my stake between them.
Back Bobs Worth for 57.61% of stake - 3.90 Betfair
Back Sir Des Champs 42.39% of stake - 5.30 Betfair
I've had a good week and will be in profit with whatever happens to the above, but hopefully we can have the perfect end to the festival and do what we threatened on Tuesday and Wednesday, get a clean sweep of winners!
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