The Championship - 23rd & 24th October 2012

I think we can count ourselves a little unlucky not to get 2 from 2 in the football on Saturday. Crystal Palace were 2-0 up and cruising before Dean Moxey inexplicably handles the ball and got himself sent off. However with Brighton failing to find the net again we took out a small profit. We are now 13 from 19 and the main bank has increased by a little 77% after commission so far.

Add into that Saturdays horse picks, Excelebration (10/11), Frankel - Cirrus Des Aigles Forecast (6/5 on the Tote Exacta) and Sapphire (3/1) and we had a very good afternoon. The only blip was Opinion Poll, who was travelling well before pulling up.

But enough of the past and onto Tuesday nights football.

Leicester v Brighton

I mentioned on Saturday that Brighton have failed to score against a side who I believe will finish in the top 12 this season, they have also only manged 1 point in those games. They duly lost 1-0 to Middlesbrough and further confirmed this. I see no reason why Leicester won't be finishing in the top 6 this season, after a sluggish start to the season they are starting to find their form and find themselves at the top of the table.

By contrast Brighton started the season quickly and found themselves top of the league early on. However they have now had to play some of the better sides and don't look as threatening, they've now failed to score in 5 of their 11 matches and have no wins in the last 4, mustering 1 goal (an 80th minute equaliser against Ipswich who are now winless in 9!Ten if you include the cup defeat to Carlisle).

Leicester have won every home league game this season and scored in all 11 matches I think that by the end of the season the gulf in class between these two side will be clear for everyone to see. Pricing this game up on where I expect these sides to finish I would have Leicester at 1.8x max. so the near evens available on Betfair is worth taking.

Back Leicester at 1.99 - Betfair

Leeds United v Charlton Athletic

Leeds are another side who have scored in every game this season, they are also on a 5 match unbeaten league run. Charlton are a side who I'm still not sure about I don't think they'll go down, but I'm not sure they're good enough to avoid a relegation battle.

I see Charlton finishing around 17th - 19th, which I think the club will be happy with. Leeds are really playing some good football this season and El Hadji Diouf is really enjoying himself. Warnock seems to be getting the best out of him. If Warnock can keep him sweet then there is no reason why Leeds cannot make the play-offs. I think they are certain of a top half finish.

I therefore would give Leeds a more than a 50% chance of winning this match-up.

Back Leeds at 2.00 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

I won't be doing an Anytime Goalscorer Treble on this round of fixtures because I can see a few draws coming up. So far this season Drawn matches are down at 21% I expect this to go up to nearer the 28% mark by the end of the season, therefore we should start seeing cards where 5,6,7 games end up as draws. There has also been an average of 2.92 goals per game this season, I expect this to start coming down now to nearer the 2.6x mark. With all that in mind this bet pays over 170,000/1 with Victor Chandler.