The Championship - 2nd & 3rd November 2012

This looks like a big betting weekend with 40% of my bank going on the below 4 singles. I also have two other matches I'm looking at but I'm waiting to see what the market does before committing to them. Again the form table has to come out due to some of the prices on offer just looking wrong.

FtS = Failed to Score

Brighton v Leeds

Looking at the above form table Brighton are winless in 6 games and sit 10th in the league overall. Leeds are 8th in the form table and sitting 11th in the league. A few weeks ago I went on about how Brighton have failed to score against a side that you'd expect to finish in the top half of the league. They managed to break that run at Blackpool last weekend via a mistake from the goalkeeper. They've already failed to score in 6 of their 13 games this season so I don't see why they have been priced up around the 2.00 mark. That price suggests they have a 50% chance of them winning this game.

At worst I can see Brighton finishing 3-5 points ahead of Leeds. So I don't think it would be too wide of the mark to say that these teams are of equal ability, and that's being kind to Brighton. With all things being equal I'd give Brighton a maximum 46% chance of winning this, which equates to odds of 2.17.

Lay Brighton at 2.04 - Betfair


Birmingham v Ipswich

Are Birmingham about to turn the corner? They are unbeaten in three games and are starting to climb the table. This weekend they come up against bottom of the table Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have no wins in 11 and only 1 win this season. They do however have Mick McCarthy as manager. So the question in this match is;

What % chance does a new manager increase a teams likely hood of winning?

For me Birmingham are a much better side and will finish around 8-10 places above Ipswich. Even after taking a potential Mick McCarthy 'bounce' into consideration I would give the home side a minimum chance of 52%.

Back Birmingham at 2.06 - Betfair


Crystal Palace v Blackburn

A bit like last weekend we have Crystal Palace now unbeaten in 10 games. I've mentioned a few times that they are constantly under-rated. I'm now starting to think that their first XI could be the best in the league. Wins against Cardiff, Wolves, Leicester and Bolton (the last three in that list were all away from home) add weight to that argument.

Blackburn themselves are in good form and sit one place below Palace in the league. So with that as a starting point I think it would be fair to say these two sides will be close and the end of the season. On that basis I don't understand why Palace, who have had a great record at Selhurst Park for almost 2 years now (8 defeats in 45 games) are priced up at anything higher than 2.50.

You can bring the manager argument into it but I feel the last two performances and results somewhat nullify that.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.72 - Betfair


Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough

This bet is placed solely on current form. Peterborough have won 4 of their last 6, and were not disgraced in their two defeats. They are now starting to score goals and I feel it's worth taking the risk to side with them this weekend.

Before last weekends wins against Ipswich, can't take much credit from that at the moment, Sheffield Wednesday had not won in 9 games. I can only imagine that they are priced up at odds on because the belief is they will now climb the table. I still believe that Peterborough will go down, however Sheffield Wednesday won't be that far ahead of them.

I cannot be giving Wednesday a 54% chance of winning this game and would have them at 2.00 minimum.

Lay Sheffield Wednesday at 1.86 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

Victor Chandler are paying out at a very nice 144,000/1 on this.