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Saturday 1 December 2012

The Championship - 1st December 2012

Last week wasn't the greatest to say the least but the main bank is still up by 101.98%. From the 37 bets advised we've had 22 winners, that's a 59.45% strike rate.

Looking through this weekends list I can't see an away win but there are some decent prices around for some home wins.

Watford v Barnsley

At the start of the season I had Barnsley down as one of my relegation bets, they currently sit in 20th and are 5 points behind 19th with a 2 point advantage over the teams in the relegation zone. I think it's fair to say that they are in a relegation battle. They have put in some good performances this season, but with no wins in a 8 games and 6 defeats on the road today seems a good time to back their opponents.

Watford are starting to gel as a team after a summer of comings and goings. They currently sit 2nd in the 6 game form table. They haven't lost in their last 6 and have scored 16 goals in that time. Watford are starting to look like play-off/promotions contenders and with the ability to strengthen in January they may be a side to follow in the coming weeks.

There is a clear disparity between these two side and I'm happy to go for a home win.

Back Watford at 1.80 - BetVictor


Nottingham Forest v Hull

Forest cost us some money on Tuesday night, I think they didn't take Ipswich seriously couple that with Ipswich putting a decent performance together and the result didn't go the way I was hoping. Hull by contrast done everything but score against Palace. That game was Palaces toughest of the season so far.

However I don't think there is too much between these side. Forest probably have around a 45% chance of winning this match, but are priced up at 2.50 (40%). With only 3 points between these sides in the league, a Forest win would move them above Hull, which makes these odds wrong.

Back Nottingham Forest at 2.50 - BetVictor


Crystal Palace v Br*ghton

If forums are anything to go by the wheels are falling off at Palace, they haven't won in two games and failed to score for the 1st time this season. They even have the audacity to lose a game after a 14 game unbeaten run.

I've wrote about the reasons why derby games are worth getting involved in. The players playing are still the same,the form table is still the same, people will say "yeah but it's a derby game, the players will be more up for it". Surely both sets of players will be "up for it", which cancels that statement out when looking at the betting.

The facts of this game are:

Crystal Palace

  • 3rd in the 6 game form table
  • 2nd in the league
  • 1 defeat in 16 games
  • Lost 8 of last 48 home games
  • Scored more than any team at home this season (24)
  • Are 5 places and 6 points better off in than Brighton


Brighton

  • Unbeaten in 7 games
  • 5th in the 6 game form table
  • Have the best away defence in the league (9)
  • 7th in the league


Looking at that and being objective you could make the case that these teams are of equal ability, being kind to Brighton there as I believe Palace currently have the best starting XI in the league. However if you say these teams are equal then Palace should be price at 2.22 (45%).

I would advise anyone who enjoys good football to find and online link and watch this game as you should see some excellent attacking football from both sides. Here

Back Crystal Palace at 2.45 - BetVictor


Reference to 5-0 day with that celebration?

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

BetVictor are really offering the prices this weekend, this treble pays out at almost 16/1





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