The Championship - 22nd December 2012

Last weekend we got 3 from 4, after posting two late bets on Twitter, and if it wasn't for David Ngog coming of the bench it would have been all 4. However the main bank went up from +104.50% to +145.66%. I'm hoping for more of the same this weekend to take us into the 2nd half of the season in a very healthy position.

Birmingham City v Burnley

Birmingham have 1 win in their last 7 games, but sit next to Burnley in the 6 game form table.

I am however taking a long term view with this bet. I have been impressed by the way Birmingham have fought back in their previous two home games against Middlesbrough (won 3-2) and Crystal Palace (drew 2-2). I don't see much difference between these two sides and without the goals of Charlie Austin, Burnley could well be in a relegation battle. I expect Birmingham to finish above Burnley in May so I'm surprised to see that they've been given a 40% chance in this match. I would give them a chance of around the 45% mark (2.22).

Back Birmingham City at 2.50 - Betfair

Leicester City v Cardiff City

The league leaders travel to 5th placed Leicester City. Despite Cardiff's defeat at home to Peterborough last week they still top the 6 game form table. They have also been improving on the road recently, even though I don't currently rate Blackburn any 4-1 victory away from home has to be respected.

Leicester have a great record at home this season, (8 wins, 2 draw, 1 defeat) but at the prices they have to be taken on. The odds suggest they have 50% (2.00) chance of winning this. I see these sides of equal about ability so would therefore give Leicester a 45% (2.22) chance.

Lay Leicester City at 2.0x - Betfair

Crystal Palace v Huddersfield

Crystal Palace have only lost 8 of their last 49 home league games. That stat in itself suggests Palace should be odds-on here. Getting the correct price is the challenge and I think the best way to work that out for this weekend is to look at Huddersfields last fixture. Hull were priced up at 1.80 and won 2-0. Palace are no worse that Hull and the league table suggests they are better.

Huddersfield started the season well but their form has dropped off now, they haven't won in their last 6 games and have slipped to 17th in the table and sit bottom of the 6 game form table. Palace have lost 1 of their last 19 games and sit 2nd in the league.

The odds suggest they have around a 56% chance of winning this and I think their is a bit of value in that, based on the Hull odds from last week and Palace's home record.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.80 - Betfair

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Huddersfield)

He's scoring an average of more that a goal a game this season so it makes sense to stick with him again this week.

DJ Campbell (Ipswich v Bristol City)

Bristol City have conceded 45 goals this season and while Ipswich struggle to score I think they will in this match and if they do DJ Campbell is the most likely to get it. 

Marlon King (Birmingham v Burnley)

Marlon King is class at this level and with 13 goals this season I feel he is worth following this week.

The treble pays 8.56 with Bet365