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We are currently on a down slope due to these draws but I'm expecting this to turn around this weekend as results start to go our way.
I'm hoping to be back up over the 120% mark after the conclusion of the New Years Day fixtures.
Bristol City v Peterborough
Peterborough have won their last 3 games but previous to that they had not won in 8 (7 defeats and a draw). Looking at it long term I still have Peterborough down as the worst team in the league. A lot of their recent turn around has been down to the goals of Dwight Gayle and teams under-estimating them.
Another negative against Peterborough is the loss of George Thorne who has been recalled to West Brom. I don't see that much difference between these sides so I cannot understand why Peterborough are being made effective favourites. With a game like this I would price it as H2.25 D3.50 A3.75.
If it wasn't for Bristol City being a poor side as well I would back them outright, however I feel it's more sensible to take some caution with this game due to the unpredictable nature of both these sides. I cannot see Peterborough winning 4 games in a row but they could sneak a draw.
Lay Peterborough at 3.05 - Betfair
Burnley v Leicester
Again we have Leicester taking their poor away record on the road again (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats). They are constantly under-priced away from home and I don't understand the way this game is priced. Burnley haven't really been in the best form with too many draws, but they have only lost 1 of the last 7. Leicester by contrast haven't won in 4 and their 6 game record reads LWDLLD. They have also failed to score in 4 of those games. When you coming up against the leagues top goal-scorer you get the feeling you'll need to score at least 2 to win.
For that reason above I cannot be giving Leicester a 42% (2.38) chance of winning this and would give them a chance of around the 33% (3.00) mark.
Lay Leicester at 2.38 - Betfair
Middlesbrough v Blackpool
Looking at the six game form table Middlesbrough sit above Blackpool, they are also 8 places and 11 point better off in the overall league table.
Those stats would suggest that Middlesbrough are the better side however the price would have them at around Blackpool's equals.
Middlesbrough's home record reads W9, D1, L2, that's far superior to Blackpool's away record of W4, D4, L4. Even if you do rate these sides as equal the prices should be H2.25, D3.50, A3.75. I however believe that Middelsbrough are the better side and have it priced at H2.15, D3.55, A4.00.
Back Middlesbrough at 2.30 - BetVictor
Brighton v Watford
Watford are 6th in the six game form table with Brighton sitting in 17th. Watford are 4 places and 3 points above Brighton in the league. However Brighton are again again priced up like they are far superior to the other sides in this league. Of Brighton's 12 home games this season they have won 4, drawn 6 and lost 2. That's a 33% strike rate and means they shouldn't be near even money to win at home.
Watford's away record reads W5, D2, L4. That would suggest that teams should be not be priced lower than 2.20 when Watford visit. Brighton have also only won 3 of their last 16 games, they're hardly in the form where you'd want to be backing them at near even money. Brighton should be around 2.25 for this game so at the prices on offer have to be taken on, especially as they have the joint highest Failed to Score statistic in the league with 8.
Lay Brighton at 2.08 - Betfair
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