Brighton v Derby County
Derby sit one place below Brighton in the league and are level on points. Derby aren't the best travellers in the league with a 3W, 3D, 7D record however they are improving as a side. They currently sit 6th in the six game form table, this is 13 places above Brighton. Brighton have 9 wins all season, this is the lowest of the top 10 and the same as Wolves (17th). They are a tough side to beat, they've only lost 6 all season but they have way to many draws.
Brighton have picked up more points away from home than at home, however they are always priced short at home. Their average home price this season is 1.92, that would suggest they win 52% of their home games. However they have won 4 of 13, that's only 30%. Looking at it further their home wins came against Peterborough, Barnsley, Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday. That's the BOTTOM 4!!
Brighton may have beaten Newcastle, however they were favourites for that game so it can't go down as an amazing act of giant killing. They also went to Ipswich and won, however 3 of their 4 shots on target went in.
Derby are starting to score more goals and if they can replicate some of their home form on their travels they are serious play-off contenders.
At the prices Brighton have to be taken on. On form and league position there doesn't seem to be much between these two sides, therefore Brighton should be priced at around the 2.2x mark.
Lay Brighton at 2.0x - Betfair
Anytime Goalscorer Treble
Dwight Gayle (Nottingham Forest v Peterborough)
I fancy Peterborough to get something out of this game. Forest haven't won since McLeish took over and have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 games.That stat makes me think that Peterborough will get at least one goal, so their top league goalscorer is the man to go with here.
Chris Wood (Bristol City v Leicester City)
I was in two minds about laying Leicester today, in the end I decided to leave it alone as Bristol City can't defend. Bristol City have already conceded 50 goals this season so the likely-hood is Leicester will score. Chris Wood has hit the ground running since his transfer. He's scored 3 goals in his 2 games so far, previous to that he scored 11 goals in 19 games for Millwall. At even money he offers more value than backing Leicester at odds-on.
Troy Deeney (Middlesbrough v Watford)
Watford have scored more goals away from home that any other side in the league (27). The rumour is that Boro have hamstring injuries all over the place. With that in mind I think it makes sense to go with Troy Deeney to grab a goal. He's chosen over Vydra as he is normally the penalty taker.
The Treble pays 16.25/1 with William Hill
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