The Championship - 6th November 2012

I mentioned on Saturday night that draws this season was really low compared to the average of around 28%.

So when I looked at this midweek fixture list I had this in mind. The further into the season we get the harder it becomes to find value as teams start to be priced up on their actual ability and not perceived greatness (unless it's Liverpool).

If your going to get a low scoring round of fixtures with an increase in draws it makes sense that it would be on a cold and wet Tuesday night. For that reason I only have the one single. I think you'll see form my accumulator that I see a lot of these games being close.

Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town

If I'm correct in my growing belief, that Crystal Palace have the best starting XI in the league then we won't be getting Even money on Home Games v bottom 12 side much longer. Palace are unbeaten in 11 games and playing some of the best football they have in years. They have beaten Cardiff, Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves.

Ipswich by contrast have 2 wins from their 14 games this season and sit bottom of the league. If they were away to a more favorable side (Cardiff, Leicester, Leeds etc...) the home team would be priced up at 1.8x.

I can see Ipswich allowing Palace to play the ball around at will, up until they get within 30 yards of goal. Blackburn tried this on Saturday and the pressure eventually told. Palace will need to be patient but with Bolasie and Zaha moving defenders from side to side with their pace and skill, the gaps will eventually appear. This will allow Garvan and Jedinak to push on, dominate the midfield and create more goal scoring opportunities.

For those reasons I am happy to back a side that have only lost 8 of their last 46 home games at 2.00.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.00 - Betfair 


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

As it's a Tuesday night and only a bit of fun, I've come up with a big priced treble

Yala Bolasie - Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town
Craig Noone - Charlton Athletic v Cardiff City
Chris Wood - Watford v Millwall

The above treble pays almost 82/1 with Bet365


 #ToiletRollAcca

Due to having a load of draws it pays a healthy 300,000/1 with Bet Victor