Derby County v Birmingham City
Derby have two sides, the one that play at Pride Park where Theo Robinson scores for fun and the one that go away from home and have one shot on target. Fortunately for them they are at home this week to a Birmingham side who are below them in both the current form table and the league table.
At the beginning of the season I thought that Birmingham would be challenging for the play-offs, they still might, however it seems that Lee Clark is struggling to adapt to managing at a higher level. Without the services of Jordan Rhodes he doesn't have a player who he can rely on for goals and it looks like he doesn't know what his best XI is.
I don't see too much difference between these sides so I'd give Derby a minimum 45% (2.22) chance of winning this match.
Back Derby at 2.25 - General
Brighton v Bolton
Nothing would give me more satisfaction than to see both these side play out a dull 0-0 draw. However I've been impressed with Brighton in recent weeks and can see them sneaking this one. Since Will Buckley has returned to the side they offer a threat going forward. They are currently on a five match unbeaten run and have the best defensive record in the league. Last week they went to Huddersfield and got a deserved three points.
Bolton have only one away win this season. If Dougie Freedman sticks to his style of play Brighton will have plenty of the ball. Bolton haven't kept a clean sheet away from home this season so I expect Brighton to score. Bolton are also conceding an average of two goals a game on their travels.
I think that Brighton have around a 47% (2.12) chance of winning this match.
Back Brighton at 2.16 - Betfair
Ipswich Town v Peterborough
I still believe that Peterborough will finish bottom of the league. They've picked up some good results this season but have generally been awful. They have now lost their last 4 and conceded 4 at home last week and were lucky not to let in 5 or 6 against Palace the previous week.
Ipswich have a ridiculous goal difference of -25 but you won't get many opportunities to back the home side at even money v Peterborough this season. I would expect a typical Mick McCarthy display from Ipswich after he's put the side through defensive training all week.
I expect this to be a close game with few chances, however I expect the home side to grind out a result in a game they must win if they want to get out of this relegation battle. Long term I can see Ipswich moving away from the relegation zone and expect them to finish at least 15 points clear of Peterborough.
Back Ipswich at 2.00 - Betfair
Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace is where the bulk of this seasons profits have came from. Palace are now unbeaten in 14 games, winning 11 of them. They are currently on a 5 match winning streak. Wins over Leeds today and Hull on Tuesday would equal a club record and set things up nicely for the visit of Brighton to break the consecutive wins record.
But enough of that for now and a look at today's game. Leeds haven't won in 7 games and have lost their last 3. They could have easily lost their last 7 if it wasn't for Michael Browns long range shooting and Charlton missing open goals. One of their major problems is keeping 11 men on the pitch. With Bolasie and Zaha running at them I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a red card today.
With that in mind I think it's worth backing the league leaders to add to their collection of away wins this season that include Wolves, Bolton and Leicester.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.50 - Betfair
Anytime Goalscorer Treble
Glenn Murray - Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Will Buckley - Brighton v Bolton
Theo Robinson - Derby County v Birmingham
The treble pays just over 20/1 with Coral
#ToiletRollAcca
This weekend it pays out at over 109,000/1. Last week we got half way again so here's hoping we can get 11 up before sitting down to watch the late game.
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