The Championship - 16th & 17th November 2012

Last weekend was tough from the outset and I explained on Twitter that I wanted to lay Leicester and Brighton, but had no confidence in Nottingham Forest or Wolves. As it turned out both of those bets would have been winners.

It did turn into a good weekend though with the below bets advised on twitter;

Lay Peterborough in-play at 1.49 WON
Back District 3 6th Elimination in X Factor at 2.48 & 3.65 WON
Back Chelsea v Liverpool at 1.92 LOST

This weekends football looks easier, on paper, to call. Hopefully we can get at least two from three to continue the bank building, which currently stands at +147.34%.

Crystal Palace v Derby County

It's interesting the way this match is priced up considering the stats;

Crystal Palace 

• 8 defeats in their last 47 home games
• Unbeaten in last 13 games (10 wins, 3 draws)
• Top of the league
• Scored 21 goals at home so far this season (avg. 2.63 per game)
• Scored in every game this season

Derby County

• Won 2 of their 8 away games this season
• Scored 7 goals in 8 away games this season (failed to score in 3 of them)
• Averaging 0.88 goals per game away from home
• Concede an average of 1.50 goals away from home

From the above I can't see Derby stopping Palace scoring, especially when the home side have around 60% of the ball. If Derby do only end up with 40% of the ball I can't really see them troubling the Palace goal on to many occasions.

I expect Palace to score at least 2 and give them a minimum 55% (1.81) chance of winning this game.

Back Crystal Palace at 1.98 - Betfair

Huddersfield v Brighton

I don't get the prices of this game, it's priced up like it's August. Hudderfield are higher in the league and seem very capable of holding their own at this level. Brighton are currently on a run of 2 wins from their last 10 games. Huddersfield have won 5 in that time.

Brighton are a side that like to keep the ball, which helps them deffensivly. However Hudderfield are another side that keep possession and with the fire power they have up front I can see them causing Brighton issues. In my opinion the odds for this game are the wrong way round, with Huddrsfield at a maximum of 2.50.

Back Huddersfield  at 3.05 - Betfair

Millwall v Leeds United

Millwall are on a run of 9 without defeat, Leeds haven't won in 6 games. Leeds are really struggling to score goals at the moment and last weekends 6-1 defeat at home to Watford hardly inspires confidence. Millwall are finding the net regularly now, 15 goals in the last 6 games, so it's hard to see Leeds keeping a clean sheet here.

Millwall at odds on is a bit short, due to my belief that these two side are not that different to each other based on ability. So I'm going to put some money up at a price and hope to get matched. 2.25 is probably about the right price, based on long term prospects. However considering current form I'll get involved if i can get matched at 2.16.

Back Millwall at 2.16 - Betfair

** Put the bet up on Betfair and hope for a drift**

If singles aren't your thing the treble pays just under 10/1 with William Hill

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

The reasons for having Glenn Murray and Andy Keogh, is because I expect both their sides, Crystal Palace and Millwall, to score at least two goals. I've put Tom Ince in because Bristol City are really struggling defensively at the moment.

This treble pays over 14.41 with Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca

Always have to have a bit of fun and dream big for a small stake. This week it pays over 226,000/1 with BetVictor.