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| FtS = Failed to Score |
Middlesbrough v Bolton
Middlesbrough sit 3rd in the recent form table and 3rd in the league. Bolton are 15th on current form and 16th overall. I have both these sides down as top half sides and I can't see there being much between them at the end of the season. On that basis alone I wouldn't give Bolton a 35% chance of winning this. I would give them a maximum chance of 30%. Therefore I would price them up at around 3.3x.
Based on that I would price Middlebrough at around the 2.30 mark. The current odds just seem to be wrong for me. The don't take account of recent form, the quality of the two sides and seem to be based on 'new manager' syndrome.
Back Middlesbrough at 2.66 - Betfair
Wolves v Charlton
Wolves are 6th in the league and I feel that is around where they will finish. Charlton sit 18th but I don't feel they will finish much higher than that. Charlton picked up a win at Blackpool and were unlucky to only get a draw in their last outing at Leeds. They have however been beaten at home by 10 man Watford and outplayed by Barnsley. I feel that this combination of results show that whilst they can perform well on occasion they are not able to find the consistency to challenge in this league.
Wolves are starting to adjust to this league and with a strike-force containing Doyle and Ebanks-Blake they will be hard to handle for any team. They have also added Jermaine Pennant to the side, who should stand out in this league. I would give Wolves a minimum 55% (1.81) chance of winning this fixture.
Back Wolves at 1.91 - William Hill
Leicester v Crystal Palace
So we have the two form side in the league, 1st v 4th, Leicester have De Laet and St. Ledger out. Wilfred Zaha is back for Palace. Both these sides have scored in every game this season. Leicester have been impressive at home with their 100% record and have kept 4 clean sheets.
To counter that Crystal Palace are on a 9 game unbeaten run. Yes they have lost their manager, but to look at that more closely, was it Dougie Freedman who changed their fortunes or the players getting fed up with his start with nil against lets keep it that way tactics? Remember before the 8 game unbeaten run he presided over, Palace had won 3 of the previous 25 league games in 2012. On Tuesday night at Barnsley they started the game like nothing had happened, it took an 87th minute 25 yard strike to deny them the three points.
I still believe this Palace starting XI are top 8 quality, so I don't get why this game is priced up like they are a bottom 3 side. Even if I took the manager loss into consideration I cannot give Leicester more than a 55% (1.81) chance of winning this game. Palace may very well lose this but in the long term you've got to take on teams if they are priced up like this for no logical reason.
Lay Leicester at 1.62 - Betfair
Anytime Goalscorer Treble
After leaving this alone in midweek, where a whole host of my usual candidates found the net I'm hoping that I haven't missed my chance.
Peter Whittingham - Cardiff v Burnley
Kevin Doyle - Wolves v Charlton
DJ Campbell - Ipswich v Sheffield Wed
Pays over 18/1 with SkyBet
#ToiletRollAcca
In the week I wrote this I can see a few draws coming up. So far this season Drawn matches are down at 21% I expect this to go up to nearer the 28% mark by the end of the season, therefore we should start seeing cards where 5,6,7 games end up as draws. That round of fixtures ended with six draws and draws are up to 23%, I think it's worth taking the chance on this rising again at the weekend. Victor Chandler are paying over 284,000/1 on the below.
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