"Never bet on derby games" is a saying that I've never believed in. Just because a game is a derby doesn't change the form or the quality of the sides involved. Palace are 4th in the table and top the form tables. They have won 6 and draw 1 of their last 7 games. Millwall by contrast sit 20th with 1 win in their last 6 games. They way both these side are playing I see no reason why Palace won't be finishing above Millwall this season.
Going into it further I see the Palace starting XI as a definite top 8 lineup, whether they finish there will be down to squad depth and injuries. An injury to either Zaha, Bolasie or Murray would dramatically affect the way this side play.
Millwall on the other hand don't look like a side that can challenge for the play-off positions. They have players who are adequate at this level and I expect them to finish around 14th - 16th. That will be mainly down to the goals of Henderson and the creative play of Keogh.
Millwall have failed to keep a clean sheet this season and I can't see that changing against a side who have scored in every game. For me the key man on Saturday will be Yannick Bolasie as I can see Millwall setting out to keep Zaha quiet. This should allow Bolasie to expose them down the other wing.
I rate Crystal Palace's chance of winning this game at around 50% therefore anything over evens is value.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.10 - General
Brighton v Middlesbrough
The markets on Betfair at the moment is suggesting that Brighton are the 4th best side in the league, with 'Boro 11th. I just can't see this, Brighton do play some good football but all to often are found wanting in front of goal. They've failed to score in 40% of their matches this season, only Peterborough are worse with that stat.
They have played 3 sides that I expect to finish in the top half of the table so far this season (Birmingham, Cardiff and Hull) from those games they have score 0 goals and picked up 1 point. I firmly believe that Middlesbrough will finish in the top 12 this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish above Brighton.
After a start to the season which saw 'Boro win their 1st three home games but lose the 1st three away things are starting to level out. They've now won their last two on the road and were only beaten by and 89th minute deflection against Leicester for their only defeat in the last 4.
The odds suggest the Brighton have 55% chance of winning this match, but I rate their chances nearer the 45% mark. Therefore I have to take Brighton on.
Lay Brighton at 1.84 - Betfair
Anytime Goalscorer Treble
Glenn Murray - (Crystal Palace v Millwall)
Charlie Austin - (Burnley v Blackpool)
Peter Wittingham - (Nottingham Forest v Cardiff)
The treble pays just over 19/1 with Bet365
#ToiletRollAcca
I did post this up on twitter on Friday afternoon as the Leeds game was on Friday evening.
So hopefully they can win, it pays 380,000/1 but taking out Leeds takes it down to around 125,000/1.
Quality stuff sir, keep up the good work.
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