The Championship - 6th October 2012

I've taken a close look at the form tables for this weekends fixtures and tied it in with my own beliefs on what makes a good bet. The below shows the form table for the last six games, broken down into Total, Home and Away.

#		Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1		Crystal Palace	6	5	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	0	6	4	3	3	0	0	4	1	+5	16
2		Leicester City	6	5	0	1	11	5	3	3	0	0	6	2	3	2	0	1	5	3	+6	15
3		Brighton & …	6	4	1	1	10	4	3	1	1	1	4	2	3	3	0	0	6	2	+6	13
4		Cardiff City	6	4	0	2	13	9	3	3	0	0	7	2	3	1	0	2	6	7	+4	12
5		Wolverhampt…	6	4	0	2	9	6	3	2	0	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	5	3	+3	12
6		Blackburn R…	6	3	2	1	11	8	3	2	0	1	5	4	3	1	2	0	6	4	+3	11
7		Blackpool	6	3	1	2	15	10	3	2	0	1	11	4	3	1	1	1	4	6	+5	10
8		Derby County	6	3	1	2	12	8	3	2	0	1	9	5	3	1	1	1	3	3	+4	10
9		Huddersfiel…	6	3	1	2	11	9	3	1	0	2	3	5	3	2	1	0	8	4	+2	10
10		Watford	6	3	1	2	10	8	3	1	1	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	6	5	+2	10
11		Birmingham City	6	3	1	2	7	10	3	2	0	1	3	6	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	10
12		Burnley	6	2	2	2	13	12	3	1	2	0	10	7	3	1	0	2	3	5	+1	8
13		Leeds United	6	2	2	2	13	13	3	1	1	1	7	7	3	1	1	1	6	6	+0	8
14		Hull City	6	2	1	3	11	12	3	1	0	2	7	7	3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	7
15		Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	9	12	3	1	1	1	5	4	3	1	0	2	4	8	-3	7
16		Bolton Wand…	6	2	1	3	8	10	3	1	1	1	4	4	3	1	0	2	4	6	-2	7
17		Peterboroug…	6	2	0	4	9	12	3	0	0	3	2	6	3	2	0	1	7	6	-3	6
18		Bristol City	6	1	2	3	10	13	3	0	1	2	6	9	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	5
19		Barnsley	6	1	2	3	9	11	3	0	2	1	2	4	3	1	0	2	7	7	-2	5
20		Millwall	6	1	2	3	8	12	3	1	0	2	4	5	3	0	2	1	4	7	-4	5
21		Sheffield W…	6	1	1	4	8	14	3	1	0	2	5	7	3	0	1	2	3	7	-6	4
22		Charlton At…	6	1	1	4	7	10	3	0	1	2	2	4	3	1	0	2	5	6	-3	4
23		Nottingham …	6	0	4	2	6	8	3	0	2	1	2	3	3	0	2	1	4	5	-2	4
24		Ipswich Town	6	0	3	3	5	10	3	0	1	2	3	6	3	0	2	1	2	4	-5	3

Crystal Palace v Burnley
Crystal Palace are the form team in the league at the moment, they've picked up some really impressive results in this six game unbeaten run;

• Ended Sheffield Wednesdays 18 game unbeaten run
• Beat Cardiff (Now top of the league)
• Won at Bolton
• Won at Wolves to end their 4 match winning streak

I commented last weekend that Palace are generally underrated by the bookies and the same looks true this weekend. Burnley are at very best an 8th placed side. Charlie Austin is a fantastic goalscorer but if you can keep him quiet then you'll go a long way to beating Burnley. Palace aren't the best defensively but are continuously improving at the back as the new signings are getting used to each other.

A crowd of around 18,000 is expected at Selhurst and Dougie Freedman will be enforcing the message that a performance needs to be put in to get crowds up. This Palace starting 11 is as good as any in the league and now that the defensive tactics have been ditched, teams are struggling to live with them. Wilfred Zaha is becoming unplayable at this level and Yannick Bolasie has added balance and a threat down the other wing. This has given the centre midfielders more options and they are able to control the game. Add to that Glenn Murray's goals and you have a starting 11 that are genuine play-off contenders. For Palace to challenge for the play-offs they will need to strengthen in January, but at the time being they are a side to be with.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.3x - Betfair

Ipswich Town v Cardiff City
Cardiff City are top of the league and have been in or around the play-offs for years now. They simply need to do it this season. They now have arguably their best squad they've had in that time. Compare that to Ipswich, a side that have the crowd on their back, a manager that the players don't believe in and no wins in 8 games. They are the lowest scores in the league against a side that have score 17 in their 8 games.

I expect Cardiff to be in the top 6 at the end of the season and have seen nothing from Ipswich that suggests they won't be in the bottom 8. This seems to be the perfect opportunity to end their 7 match winless streak and terrible away record against the Tractor Boys.

Taking into consideration current form and where I expect these sides to finish I give Cardiff a 40% chance of winning this match.

Back Cardiff City at 2.50+

Anytime Goalscorer Treble
I've enjoyed trying to get this bet up in the last week so I'm going to try it again, it only needs to hit 3 times a season for a profit.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Burnley)
Thomas Ince (Blackpool v Charlton)
Lukas Jutkiewicz (Watford v Middlebrough)

22/1 at Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca
You've always go to chase the dream on a Saturday and this weekend it pays over 180,000/1 with Victor Chandler.

Of the 108 games this season 47% have ended in Home wins, 31% Away and 21% Draws. You'd expect this to be around 28% at the end of the season, so I'm going for a large number of draws this week to start bringing these numbers back into line.