The Championship - 27th October

After looking down this weekends fixture list, it seemed a good time to go back to the form table. There seems to be couple of games that seem to go against form and logic, based on the prices on offer.

FtS = Failed to Score

Middlesbrough v Bolton

Middlesbrough sit 3rd in the recent form table and 3rd in the league. Bolton are 15th on current form and 16th overall. I have both these sides down as top half sides and I can't see there being much between them at the end of the season. On that basis alone I wouldn't give Bolton a 35% chance of winning this. I would give them a maximum chance of 30%. Therefore I would price them up at around 3.3x.

Based on that I would price Middlebrough at around the 2.30 mark. The current odds just seem to be wrong for me. The don't take account of recent form, the quality of the two sides and seem to be based on 'new manager' syndrome.

Back Middlesbrough at 2.66 - Betfair

Wolves v Charlton

Wolves are 6th in the league and I feel that is around where they will finish. Charlton sit 18th but I don't feel they will finish much higher than that. Charlton picked up a win at Blackpool and were unlucky to only get a draw in their last outing at Leeds. They have however been beaten at home by 10 man Watford and outplayed by Barnsley. I feel that this combination of results show that whilst they can perform well on occasion they are not able to find the consistency to challenge in this league. 

Wolves are starting to adjust to this league and with a strike-force containing Doyle and Ebanks-Blake they will be hard to handle for any team. They have also added Jermaine Pennant to the side, who should stand out in this league. I would give Wolves a minimum 55% (1.81) chance of winning this fixture.

Back Wolves at 1.91 - William Hill

Leicester v Crystal Palace

So we have the two form side in the league, 1st v 4th, Leicester have De Laet and St. Ledger out. Wilfred Zaha is back for Palace. Both these sides have scored in every game this season. Leicester have been impressive at home with their 100% record and have kept 4 clean sheets. 

To counter that Crystal Palace are on a 9 game unbeaten run. Yes they have lost their manager, but to look at that more closely, was it Dougie Freedman who changed their fortunes or the players getting fed up with his start with nil against lets keep it that way tactics? Remember before the 8 game unbeaten run he presided over, Palace had won 3 of the previous 25 league games in 2012. On Tuesday night at Barnsley they started the game like nothing had happened, it took an 87th minute 25 yard strike to deny them the three points.

I still believe this Palace starting XI are top 8 quality, so I don't get why this game is priced up like they are a bottom 3 side. Even if I took the manager loss into consideration I cannot give Leicester more than a 55% (1.81) chance of winning this game. Palace may very well lose this but in the long term you've got to take on teams if they are priced up like this for no logical reason.

Lay Leicester at 1.62 - Betfair

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

After leaving this alone in midweek, where a whole host of my usual candidates found the net I'm hoping that I haven't missed my chance.

Peter Whittingham - Cardiff v Burnley

Kevin Doyle - Wolves v Charlton

DJ Campbell - Ipswich v Sheffield Wed

Pays over 18/1 with SkyBet

#ToiletRollAcca

In the week I wrote this I can see a few draws coming up. So far this season Drawn matches are down at 21% I expect this to go up to nearer the 28% mark by the end of the season, therefore we should start seeing cards where 5,6,7 games end up as draws. That round of fixtures ended with six draws and draws are up to 23%, I think it's worth taking the chance on this rising again at the weekend. Victor Chandler are paying over 284,000/1 on the below.

The Championship - 23rd & 24th October 2012

I think we can count ourselves a little unlucky not to get 2 from 2 in the football on Saturday. Crystal Palace were 2-0 up and cruising before Dean Moxey inexplicably handles the ball and got himself sent off. However with Brighton failing to find the net again we took out a small profit. We are now 13 from 19 and the main bank has increased by a little 77% after commission so far.

Add into that Saturdays horse picks, Excelebration (10/11), Frankel - Cirrus Des Aigles Forecast (6/5 on the Tote Exacta) and Sapphire (3/1) and we had a very good afternoon. The only blip was Opinion Poll, who was travelling well before pulling up.

But enough of the past and onto Tuesday nights football.

Leicester v Brighton

I mentioned on Saturday that Brighton have failed to score against a side who I believe will finish in the top 12 this season, they have also only manged 1 point in those games. They duly lost 1-0 to Middlesbrough and further confirmed this. I see no reason why Leicester won't be finishing in the top 6 this season, after a sluggish start to the season they are starting to find their form and find themselves at the top of the table.

By contrast Brighton started the season quickly and found themselves top of the league early on. However they have now had to play some of the better sides and don't look as threatening, they've now failed to score in 5 of their 11 matches and have no wins in the last 4, mustering 1 goal (an 80th minute equaliser against Ipswich who are now winless in 9!Ten if you include the cup defeat to Carlisle).

Leicester have won every home league game this season and scored in all 11 matches I think that by the end of the season the gulf in class between these two side will be clear for everyone to see. Pricing this game up on where I expect these sides to finish I would have Leicester at 1.8x max. so the near evens available on Betfair is worth taking.

Back Leicester at 1.99 - Betfair

Leeds United v Charlton Athletic

Leeds are another side who have scored in every game this season, they are also on a 5 match unbeaten league run. Charlton are a side who I'm still not sure about I don't think they'll go down, but I'm not sure they're good enough to avoid a relegation battle.

I see Charlton finishing around 17th - 19th, which I think the club will be happy with. Leeds are really playing some good football this season and El Hadji Diouf is really enjoying himself. Warnock seems to be getting the best out of him. If Warnock can keep him sweet then there is no reason why Leeds cannot make the play-offs. I think they are certain of a top half finish.

I therefore would give Leeds a more than a 50% chance of winning this match-up.

Back Leeds at 2.00 - Betfair


#ToiletRollAcca

I won't be doing an Anytime Goalscorer Treble on this round of fixtures because I can see a few draws coming up. So far this season Drawn matches are down at 21% I expect this to go up to nearer the 28% mark by the end of the season, therefore we should start seeing cards where 5,6,7 games end up as draws. There has also been an average of 2.92 goals per game this season, I expect this to start coming down now to nearer the 2.6x mark. With all that in mind this bet pays over 170,000/1 with Victor Chandler.

Champions Day (Ascot) - 20th October 2012

I've been looking forward to this day for a while now and there is 1 horse who I'm very keen to back.

Excelebration (3:30) has only lost 1 race when Frankel hasn't been in the field, that was on his debut. So on all know form he is the 2nd best miler of his generation. He was priced up at 4/6 in the without Frankel market, when last at Ascot back in June and he came second, even though they didn't run the race to suit him. Therefore anything at 4/6 or above has to be seen as value.

Obviously the star of the show comes in the 4:05. Frankel has been faultless throughout his career so far and it's been a pleasure to see him numerous times in the flesh as well as dramatically increasing my wealth. Still can't believe the 11/8 Ante-post for the 2011 Sussex Stakes. I will be having a bet on Frankel at 2/5 if that price becomes available. I'm not concerned about the ground but I rate Cirrus Des Aigles very highly, the softer the ground the better this horse is. However he showed he can act on good ground by winning this race last year. The best bet in this race is probably a Straight Forecast on Frankel (3) to beat Cirrus Des Aigles (2)

In the 2:55 there is a horse running whose last 4 runs read 1111 and all of those were on Soft or worse. Dermot Weld doesn't send many over but when he does they have to be respected. So we get to Sapphire, I have question marks over this years 3 year olds and Great Heavens has ran in a stamina sapping Arc less than 2 weeks ago. It's remains to be seen if Dancing Rain will be as good as she was last year after a lay off in her 1st run of the season. At around the 3/1 mark I'm happy to get involved.

Opinion Poll (1:45) has never ran a bad race, hasn't been outside the top 4 since his debut in 2008. Was beaten in this race last year by Fame and Glory, who has now had two poor runs in a row and doesn't really seem interested anymore. On his last race he finished 1/2 a length down on Colour Vision in the Royal meeting. Since then Colour Vision has run 3 times and not registered a win, beaten at Goodwood by Saddlers Rock. There's form lines and conclusions that can be drawn all over this race. Every horse he is capable of beating the other so it make sense to stick with one you know will run it's race. At 3/1 i'm happy to get involved.

Opinion Poll
Sapphire
Excelbration
Frankel - Cirrus Des Aigles Straight Forecast
A 4-fold on the above happening should pay out around the 60/1 mark (Totesport & Betfred)

I will also be having a single on Excelebration

The Championship - 20th October 2012

Crystal Palace v Millwall

"Never bet on derby games" is a saying that I've never believed in. Just because a game is a derby doesn't change the form or the quality of the sides involved. Palace are 4th in the table and top the form tables. They have won 6 and draw 1 of their last 7 games. Millwall by contrast sit 20th with 1 win in their last 6 games. They way both these side are playing I see no reason why Palace won't be finishing above Millwall this season.

Going into it further I see the Palace starting XI as a definite top 8 lineup, whether they finish there will be down to squad depth and injuries. An injury to either Zaha, Bolasie or Murray would dramatically affect the way this side play.

Millwall on the other hand don't look like a side that can challenge for the play-off positions. They have players who are adequate at this level and I expect them to finish around 14th - 16th. That will be mainly down to the goals of Henderson and the creative play of Keogh.

Millwall have failed to keep a clean sheet this season and I can't see that changing against a side who have scored in every game. For me the key man on Saturday will be Yannick Bolasie as I can see Millwall setting out to keep Zaha quiet. This should allow Bolasie to expose them down the other wing.

I rate Crystal Palace's chance of winning this game at around 50% therefore anything over evens is value.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.10 - General


Brighton v Middlesbrough

The markets on Betfair at the moment is suggesting that Brighton are the 4th best side in the league, with 'Boro 11th. I just can't see this, Brighton do play some good football but all to often are found wanting in front of goal. They've failed to score in 40% of their matches this season, only Peterborough are worse with that stat.

They have played 3 sides that I expect to finish in the top half of the table so far this season (Birmingham, Cardiff and Hull) from those games they have score 0 goals and picked up 1 point. I firmly believe that Middlesbrough will finish in the top 12 this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish above Brighton.

After a start to the season which saw 'Boro win their 1st three home games but lose the 1st three away things are starting to level out. They've now won their last two on the road and were only beaten by and 89th minute deflection against Leicester for their only defeat in the last 4.

The odds suggest the Brighton have 55% chance of winning this match, but I rate their chances nearer the 45% mark. Therefore I have to take Brighton on.

Lay Brighton at 1.84 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Glenn Murray - (Crystal Palace v Millwall)
Charlie Austin - (Burnley v Blackpool)
Peter Wittingham - (Nottingham Forest v Cardiff)

The treble pays just over 19/1 with Bet365


#ToiletRollAcca

I did post this up on twitter on Friday afternoon as the Leeds game was on Friday evening.
So hopefully they can win, it pays 380,000/1 but taking out Leeds takes it down to around 125,000/1.

The Championship - 6th October 2012

I've taken a close look at the form tables for this weekends fixtures and tied it in with my own beliefs on what makes a good bet. The below shows the form table for the last six games, broken down into Total, Home and Away.

#		Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1		Crystal Palace	6	5	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	0	6	4	3	3	0	0	4	1	+5	16
2		Leicester City	6	5	0	1	11	5	3	3	0	0	6	2	3	2	0	1	5	3	+6	15
3		Brighton & …	6	4	1	1	10	4	3	1	1	1	4	2	3	3	0	0	6	2	+6	13
4		Cardiff City	6	4	0	2	13	9	3	3	0	0	7	2	3	1	0	2	6	7	+4	12
5		Wolverhampt…	6	4	0	2	9	6	3	2	0	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	5	3	+3	12
6		Blackburn R…	6	3	2	1	11	8	3	2	0	1	5	4	3	1	2	0	6	4	+3	11
7		Blackpool	6	3	1	2	15	10	3	2	0	1	11	4	3	1	1	1	4	6	+5	10
8		Derby County	6	3	1	2	12	8	3	2	0	1	9	5	3	1	1	1	3	3	+4	10
9		Huddersfiel…	6	3	1	2	11	9	3	1	0	2	3	5	3	2	1	0	8	4	+2	10
10		Watford	6	3	1	2	10	8	3	1	1	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	6	5	+2	10
11		Birmingham City	6	3	1	2	7	10	3	2	0	1	3	6	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	10
12		Burnley	6	2	2	2	13	12	3	1	2	0	10	7	3	1	0	2	3	5	+1	8
13		Leeds United	6	2	2	2	13	13	3	1	1	1	7	7	3	1	1	1	6	6	+0	8
14		Hull City	6	2	1	3	11	12	3	1	0	2	7	7	3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	7
15		Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	9	12	3	1	1	1	5	4	3	1	0	2	4	8	-3	7
16		Bolton Wand…	6	2	1	3	8	10	3	1	1	1	4	4	3	1	0	2	4	6	-2	7
17		Peterboroug…	6	2	0	4	9	12	3	0	0	3	2	6	3	2	0	1	7	6	-3	6
18		Bristol City	6	1	2	3	10	13	3	0	1	2	6	9	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	5
19		Barnsley	6	1	2	3	9	11	3	0	2	1	2	4	3	1	0	2	7	7	-2	5
20		Millwall	6	1	2	3	8	12	3	1	0	2	4	5	3	0	2	1	4	7	-4	5
21		Sheffield W…	6	1	1	4	8	14	3	1	0	2	5	7	3	0	1	2	3	7	-6	4
22		Charlton At…	6	1	1	4	7	10	3	0	1	2	2	4	3	1	0	2	5	6	-3	4
23		Nottingham …	6	0	4	2	6	8	3	0	2	1	2	3	3	0	2	1	4	5	-2	4
24		Ipswich Town	6	0	3	3	5	10	3	0	1	2	3	6	3	0	2	1	2	4	-5	3

Crystal Palace v Burnley
Crystal Palace are the form team in the league at the moment, they've picked up some really impressive results in this six game unbeaten run;

• Ended Sheffield Wednesdays 18 game unbeaten run
• Beat Cardiff (Now top of the league)
• Won at Bolton
• Won at Wolves to end their 4 match winning streak

I commented last weekend that Palace are generally underrated by the bookies and the same looks true this weekend. Burnley are at very best an 8th placed side. Charlie Austin is a fantastic goalscorer but if you can keep him quiet then you'll go a long way to beating Burnley. Palace aren't the best defensively but are continuously improving at the back as the new signings are getting used to each other.

A crowd of around 18,000 is expected at Selhurst and Dougie Freedman will be enforcing the message that a performance needs to be put in to get crowds up. This Palace starting 11 is as good as any in the league and now that the defensive tactics have been ditched, teams are struggling to live with them. Wilfred Zaha is becoming unplayable at this level and Yannick Bolasie has added balance and a threat down the other wing. This has given the centre midfielders more options and they are able to control the game. Add to that Glenn Murray's goals and you have a starting 11 that are genuine play-off contenders. For Palace to challenge for the play-offs they will need to strengthen in January, but at the time being they are a side to be with.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.3x - Betfair

Ipswich Town v Cardiff City
Cardiff City are top of the league and have been in or around the play-offs for years now. They simply need to do it this season. They now have arguably their best squad they've had in that time. Compare that to Ipswich, a side that have the crowd on their back, a manager that the players don't believe in and no wins in 8 games. They are the lowest scores in the league against a side that have score 17 in their 8 games.

I expect Cardiff to be in the top 6 at the end of the season and have seen nothing from Ipswich that suggests they won't be in the bottom 8. This seems to be the perfect opportunity to end their 7 match winless streak and terrible away record against the Tractor Boys.

Taking into consideration current form and where I expect these sides to finish I give Cardiff a 40% chance of winning this match.

Back Cardiff City at 2.50+

Anytime Goalscorer Treble
I've enjoyed trying to get this bet up in the last week so I'm going to try it again, it only needs to hit 3 times a season for a profit.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Burnley)
Thomas Ince (Blackpool v Charlton)
Lukas Jutkiewicz (Watford v Middlebrough)

22/1 at Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca
You've always go to chase the dream on a Saturday and this weekend it pays over 180,000/1 with Victor Chandler.

Of the 108 games this season 47% have ended in Home wins, 31% Away and 21% Draws. You'd expect this to be around 28% at the end of the season, so I'm going for a large number of draws this week to start bringing these numbers back into line.