The Championship - 6th October 2012

I've taken a close look at the form tables for this weekends fixtures and tied it in with my own beliefs on what makes a good bet. The below shows the form table for the last six games, broken down into Total, Home and Away.

#		Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1		Crystal Palace	6	5	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	0	6	4	3	3	0	0	4	1	+5	16
2		Leicester City	6	5	0	1	11	5	3	3	0	0	6	2	3	2	0	1	5	3	+6	15
3		Brighton & …	6	4	1	1	10	4	3	1	1	1	4	2	3	3	0	0	6	2	+6	13
4		Cardiff City	6	4	0	2	13	9	3	3	0	0	7	2	3	1	0	2	6	7	+4	12
5		Wolverhampt…	6	4	0	2	9	6	3	2	0	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	5	3	+3	12
6		Blackburn R…	6	3	2	1	11	8	3	2	0	1	5	4	3	1	2	0	6	4	+3	11
7		Blackpool	6	3	1	2	15	10	3	2	0	1	11	4	3	1	1	1	4	6	+5	10
8		Derby County	6	3	1	2	12	8	3	2	0	1	9	5	3	1	1	1	3	3	+4	10
9		Huddersfiel…	6	3	1	2	11	9	3	1	0	2	3	5	3	2	1	0	8	4	+2	10
10		Watford	6	3	1	2	10	8	3	1	1	1	4	3	3	2	0	1	6	5	+2	10
11		Birmingham City	6	3	1	2	7	10	3	2	0	1	3	6	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	10
12		Burnley	6	2	2	2	13	12	3	1	2	0	10	7	3	1	0	2	3	5	+1	8
13		Leeds United	6	2	2	2	13	13	3	1	1	1	7	7	3	1	1	1	6	6	+0	8
14		Hull City	6	2	1	3	11	12	3	1	0	2	7	7	3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	7
15		Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	9	12	3	1	1	1	5	4	3	1	0	2	4	8	-3	7
16		Bolton Wand…	6	2	1	3	8	10	3	1	1	1	4	4	3	1	0	2	4	6	-2	7
17		Peterboroug…	6	2	0	4	9	12	3	0	0	3	2	6	3	2	0	1	7	6	-3	6
18		Bristol City	6	1	2	3	10	13	3	0	1	2	6	9	3	1	1	1	4	4	-3	5
19		Barnsley	6	1	2	3	9	11	3	0	2	1	2	4	3	1	0	2	7	7	-2	5
20		Millwall	6	1	2	3	8	12	3	1	0	2	4	5	3	0	2	1	4	7	-4	5
21		Sheffield W…	6	1	1	4	8	14	3	1	0	2	5	7	3	0	1	2	3	7	-6	4
22		Charlton At…	6	1	1	4	7	10	3	0	1	2	2	4	3	1	0	2	5	6	-3	4
23		Nottingham …	6	0	4	2	6	8	3	0	2	1	2	3	3	0	2	1	4	5	-2	4
24		Ipswich Town	6	0	3	3	5	10	3	0	1	2	3	6	3	0	2	1	2	4	-5	3

Crystal Palace v Burnley
Crystal Palace are the form team in the league at the moment, they've picked up some really impressive results in this six game unbeaten run;

• Ended Sheffield Wednesdays 18 game unbeaten run
• Beat Cardiff (Now top of the league)
• Won at Bolton
• Won at Wolves to end their 4 match winning streak

I commented last weekend that Palace are generally underrated by the bookies and the same looks true this weekend. Burnley are at very best an 8th placed side. Charlie Austin is a fantastic goalscorer but if you can keep him quiet then you'll go a long way to beating Burnley. Palace aren't the best defensively but are continuously improving at the back as the new signings are getting used to each other.

A crowd of around 18,000 is expected at Selhurst and Dougie Freedman will be enforcing the message that a performance needs to be put in to get crowds up. This Palace starting 11 is as good as any in the league and now that the defensive tactics have been ditched, teams are struggling to live with them. Wilfred Zaha is becoming unplayable at this level and Yannick Bolasie has added balance and a threat down the other wing. This has given the centre midfielders more options and they are able to control the game. Add to that Glenn Murray's goals and you have a starting 11 that are genuine play-off contenders. For Palace to challenge for the play-offs they will need to strengthen in January, but at the time being they are a side to be with.

Back Crystal Palace at 2.3x - Betfair

Ipswich Town v Cardiff City
Cardiff City are top of the league and have been in or around the play-offs for years now. They simply need to do it this season. They now have arguably their best squad they've had in that time. Compare that to Ipswich, a side that have the crowd on their back, a manager that the players don't believe in and no wins in 8 games. They are the lowest scores in the league against a side that have score 17 in their 8 games.

I expect Cardiff to be in the top 6 at the end of the season and have seen nothing from Ipswich that suggests they won't be in the bottom 8. This seems to be the perfect opportunity to end their 7 match winless streak and terrible away record against the Tractor Boys.

Taking into consideration current form and where I expect these sides to finish I give Cardiff a 40% chance of winning this match.

Back Cardiff City at 2.50+

Anytime Goalscorer Treble
I've enjoyed trying to get this bet up in the last week so I'm going to try it again, it only needs to hit 3 times a season for a profit.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace v Burnley)
Thomas Ince (Blackpool v Charlton)
Lukas Jutkiewicz (Watford v Middlebrough)

22/1 at Paddy Power

#ToiletRollAcca
You've always go to chase the dream on a Saturday and this weekend it pays over 180,000/1 with Victor Chandler.

Of the 108 games this season 47% have ended in Home wins, 31% Away and 21% Draws. You'd expect this to be around 28% at the end of the season, so I'm going for a large number of draws this week to start bringing these numbers back into line.






 

The Championship - 2nd & 3rd October 2012

We're 10 from 14 this season and the bank is building nicely. We were unlucky on Saturday with 2 from 4, due to an 89th minute deflected Leicester winner and Huddersfield throwing away 1-0 lead, costing us 1.43% of the main bank.

Add into that getting 2 out of 3 from the 18/1 Anytime Goalscorer treble, thanks Jordan Rhodes, but enough of complaining, we tipped up 3/4 golf bets (11/10, 11/10, 15/8) and both teams to score in the Man Utd v Spurs match (4/5) on twitter.

So on-wards and upwards with this midweek card!

Bristol City v Millwall

To beat Bristol City at Ashton Gate you would have needed to score at least 3 goals this season. They have scored more than any other side in the league. Their problem has been at the back, conceding 16 this season. That is on less than the 17 Millwall have shipped so far.

I feel that Millwall will need at least 2 goals to get something out of this game. Both sides are will probably end the season in similar positions. So I rate the home side at around the 2.20 mark.

Strange stat Millwall have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 at Bristol City.

Back Bristol City at 2.38 - VCBet

Anytime Goalscorer Treble

Was close with this at the weekend, so having another go at it

Charlie Austin - 11 goals in 10 games (Burnley v Sheffield Wednesday)
Sam Baldock - 4 goals in 5 games (Bristol City v Millwall)
Glenn Murray - 6 goals in 6 games (Wolves v Crystal Palace)

Treble with Paddy Power is over 19/1

#ToiletRollAcca

Pays a healthy 220,000/1 with VCBet

The Championship - 29th September 2012

Barnsley v Ipswich Town

Bristol City have really impressed me this season, they currently sit 13th in the league having scored 11 goals. To stay there home form will be key, they are currently unbeaten (2 wins and 1 draw), conceding 1 goal in the process. This weekend provides them the perfect opportunity to continue that form with the visit of Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have managed to score 5 goals this season, joint worst with Peterborough. They have also conceded 15, only Peterborough have worse record than that. They've lost their last 3 games and only have the 1 win to their names this season, which came with their only away goal - 90th minute winner at Watford.

In the long term I think that these two sides will be nearer in the league than they currently are, so I'm going to take some caution with this bet.

Lay Ipswich at anything under 3.25 - Betfair

Huddersfield v Watford

Huddersfield find themselves 2nd in the league after Monday nights impressive win at Blackpool. Watford don't really know what they want to be at the moment. They won 2 of their 1st 3 games but have now picked up 1 point in the last 4. Zola still doesn't know what his best side is and surely that can't be good for building momentum.

Huddersfield by contrast are unbeaten since their stoppage time loss at Cardiff on the opening night. They've won 4, drawn 2, scored 12 and conceded 5. I don't expect them to finish second in the league, long term I see them 12th - 16th. I don't see Watford doing much better than that, the owners have said it's a long term plan. So anything but a relegation scrap should be seen as progress, but until Zola has a settled XI, I can't be backing them.

Back Huddersfield at 2.10 (in-play)

Middlesbrough v Leicester

I took Leicester on last weekend and it cost me, however I'm happy to take them on again in this match. I cannot see why they are favorites. 'Boro have won all of their home games and Leicester haven't picked up a point away from home.

At the end of the season I can't see these two sides being that far away from each other. Leicester were over-backed last season because of the money they spent and the same seems to be happening this year.

Lay Leicester at 2.76 - Betfair

Bolton v Crystal Palace

Palaces record against Bolton is truly awful, no wins there since 1980 and haven't beaten them home or away since 1983. However I just have to take Bolton on at the odds. Bolton will finish above Palace this season as they have more depth in their squad, but the starting eleven for Crystal Palace is as good as anyone's in this league.

This has been proved in recent weeks and I see no reason why this run can't continue. Palace were my most profitable team last season. I backed them in the first half of the season and got rewarded with great prices on their cup run and league games. Then took them on in the last 10 games. They are a club that are constantly under-rated as they don't spend money. This means they are always one of the favorites for relegation, yet they haven't been outside of the top two divisions since 1977. This means that you usually get good prices on them.

Lay Bolton at 1.67 - Betfair


Anytime Goalscorer Treble

For a bit of fun this weekend I looked at players who are in for and scoring goals

Charlie Austin - 10 goals in 9 games (Burnley v Millwall)
Jordan Rhodes - 5 goals in 5 games (Charlton v Blackburn)
Glenn Murray - 5 goals in 5 games (Bolton v Crystal Palace)

Treble with Coral is over 18/1


#ToiletRollAcca

It doesn't pay the 6 figures this weekend, but it comes in at over 19,000/1 with Victor Chandler