Leicester v Hull - 23rd September 2012

Having looked at this match for a few days now I still can't understand the prices. Leicester have a 100% home record, but they haven't been entirely convincing in those games. Hull on the other hand are scoring goals for fun at the moment, 10 in their last 3 games.

There was a lot of confidence behind Leicester last season, after the money that they spent, however they failed to deliver. I don't believe that they are any better now than in May. Hull have defiantly improved from last season. Steve Bruce has come in and brought his brand of attacking football with him. I rate Bruce highly at this level from my time watching Palace under him.

These two sides are closely matched, with Hull potentially better in the long term. That's why I would have Leicester nearer the 2.30 mark.

Lay Leicester at 2.12 - Betfair 

Peterborough v Wolves - 22nd September 2012

As I said in my pre-season comments, Peterborough are going down! 6 played 6 lost. I haven't backed them to lose any of their games so far as I didn't realise that they are potentially the worst team in Championship history. We may not get many more opportunities to take them on at decent prices, so I have to take the chance this weekend.

In my last two write-ups I mentioned the importance of looking ahead to the way league tables will form. These sides will be either end of the table, Peterborough likely bottom two, Wolves top 6. Therefore I give Wolves a minimum 50% chance of winning this game, so any price above evens has to be taken.

Wolves have won their last two games and with Ebanks-Blake and Doyle in their side they should have too much. Add into that the fact that Wolves have never lost at London Road and this bet just has to be taken.

Back Wolves at 2.25 - William Hill

The Championship 18th & 19th September 2012

It’s a tough midweek fixture list to call and I toyed with the idea of laying Leeds and Forest, on the basis that they were maybe a little short. However I have decided against this, so won’t me having a main bet from my Championship bank on this round of fixtures.

I will as usual be having the #ToiletRollAcca and a little treble to keep the evening interesting. For the treble I’ve looked at the both teams to score market:

Peterborough v Bristol City

Peterborough always have considered if you are looking for over 2.5 goals or Both Teams to Score. The home side have already conceded 12 goals in their 5 games this season, including a 5-2 defeat at Burnley on Saturday. They may try to shut up shop on tonight but I cannot see them keeping a clean sheet against a Bristol City, who admittedly have score in their previous 2 away games but have scored 11 at home. They’ve had two tough away games at Forest and Barnsley (unbeaten at home this season). I believe that this is a perfect opportunity for them to pick up their first goal and potentially point on the road this season.

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

Rather surprisingly Palace have scored in every game they’ve played this season. They seemingly have started to get the balance right between attack and defence, and with players like Zaha, Williams and Bolasie they are looking a lot more balanced in midfield. Nottingham Forest have had score draws in both their away games this season. They like to keep the ball; can score spectacular goals with players like Cox and McGugan, a proven goal scorer in Billy Sharp. With the Palace defence still looking shaky from set pieces I feel Forest will score and the likely result is another away score draw. This would also be Palace’s first draw of the season.

Ipswich v Wolves

Ipswich already have two score draws at home this season and conceded 11 goals in their 5 games so far. Wolves are slowly improving but the defensive frailties are still there, they’ve lost both their away games so far conceding 4 goals. Michael Chopra will always be a threat and with him in your side you’ve always got a good chance of a goal.

Both Teams to Score in those 3 games pays over 4/1 with Stan James

#ToiletRollAcca

As I said earlier this is a tough round of fixtures call, there are a large number of away sides priced at under 2/1. Those prices don’t really interest me and I fancy a larger than average number of draws. With that in mind I’ll be backing the below accumulator at over 300,000/1.

Birmingham v Bolton – Birmingham

Blackburn v Barnsley – Blackburn

Derby v Charlton – Draw

Leeds v Hull – Hull

Millwall v Cardiff – Draw

Peterborough v Bristol City – Draw

Watford v Brighton – Draw

Blackpool v Middlesbrough – Blackpool

Crystal Palace v Nottm Forest – Draw

Ipswich v Wolves – Draw

Leicester v Burnley – Draw

Sheff Wed v Huddersfield -Draw

I will not be having anywhere near the usual amount of money I put on my Match Odds singles and advise absolute minimum stakes on these bets.

The Championship 15th September 2012

Hull v Millwall

Both these sides won their last matches 3-1. Hull beat a Bolton side who haven't completly clicked yet. Millwall were impressive in their win over Middlesbrough, keeping 57% of the ball and scoring with 3 of their 6 shots on target. 'Boro started slowly, and Millwall went 2-0 up inside 35 minutes.

Hull have made some good signings for this season, and if they can all play together I expect them to be a top 8 side. I think Millwall will be safe in mid-table, therefore anything above even money for the home side is value.

Back Hull 2.10 - General

Middlesbrough v Ipswich

As stated above Middlesbrough were poor in the the 1st half of their match at Millwall last week. The Den is never an easy place to go especially when you've had a midweek trip to Gillingham and have to be back down south for an early kick-off.

I think too much is being made of that result with the odds available, 'Boro have won both their home games this season. They have a few injuries but I don't particularly rate Ipswich. They were awful at Blackpool and despite their superior head to head record in this fixture I feel that odds of 5/4 are too big based on where I feel these two sides will finish.

Back Middlesbrough 2.25 - General

Nottingham Forest v Birmingham

Forest have impressed me more than I thought this season but having laid them twice and backing them once, all three times for a profit, I think today is a day to take them on again. Birmingham haven't really found their feet this season but with the players they have I feel it's only a matter of time before they do.

Like my other plays today a lot of this bet is looking forward to where I feel teams will end the season. These two teams won't be too far away from each other but I'm happy to take on Forest, especially now that Birmingham have signed Leroy Lita.

Lay Nottingham Forest 2.22 - Betfair

The Championship Saturday 1st September 2012

It's been a good start to The Championship season with 3 from 3 coming in. Two lays of Forest at Huddersfield and Bolton (one of them was late on  twitter) and Middlesbrough to beat Palace. Hopefully this run can continue this weekend.

Nottingham Forest v Charlton Athletic

Both these side have had good starts to the season, picking up 7 points. I said in my pre-season review that I thought Forest were over-rated and I was going to take them on in the early weeks (which has paid well after laying them twice). However they are turning into a decent footballing side. They are keeping hold of the ball and that should help them, especially at home. Their main issue has been the failure to put away the numerous chances they create. They have now addressed that with the signing of Billy Sharp.

Charlton have continued from last season, I can't fault their start, but I feel that they will be in for a tough time at the City Ground, spending large amounts of time without the ball and the home side carving out many chances.

I was expecting Forest to be 1.9x so the 2.0x on Betfair looks like value

Nottingham Forest to win 2.06 - Betfair

Burnley v Brighton

My question for this match is 'Are Brighton better than Burnley?' At the moment my answer is no. Brighton create plenty of chances and put 5 past Barnsley, a team I think will be in the bottom two come May, but didn't score in their opening two fixtures.

Burnley have lost their last two, but these were both away from home. At Middlesbrough they were beaten by two 'wonder' goals in the last 11 minutes. Admittedly they were out at Huddersfield and the form of that result will not really be seen until later in the season. I have a feeling that Huddersfield could be very strong at home.

Brighton could go here and make my tip look stupid but I cannot see why Brighton are under 3.50 here.

Lay Brighton at up to 3.45 - Betfair

Middlesbrough v Crystal Palace 25th August 2012

There is a renewed optimism around Crystal Palace today. Darcy Blake, Yannick Bolasie and Andre Mortiz have all joined. However these players haven’t trained with the squad let alone learnt the defensive tactics and that’s where the problem lies with Palace. The defensive tactics, of Serie A, that Dougie Freedman tries to play aren’t working. The defensive midfielders can’t keep the ball and the pressure builds up, resulting in goals conceded.

I expect the side to look something like this tomorrow;

4-5-1

Speroni

Ward
Ramage                                              
McCarthy                         
Parr

Bolasie               
Blake                    
Dikgacoi                           
Jedinak                              
Zaha

                                                             
Murray

With that line up not much has changed from the first 2 games of the season, the midfield 3 is still defensively minded and don’t offer much going forward, let alone ball retention. Zaha and Bolasie are similar players, they have pace and tricks but limited end product. Murray is far from a proven goal scorer at this level.

When you add into that the defensive frailties that have been shown in the final third of last season and the opening two games of this, things don’t look great for a trip to Middlesbrough. Palace haven’t won away in the league in 2012, haven’t won in previous 11 league games, 4 wins in the 27 Championship fixtures this calendar year  and to top it off they haven’t won on their last 6 trips to Middlesbrough.

Palace will improve as the season goes on, especially when Williams comes back and the tactics revert to 4-4-2 with Zaha up front. However I cannot see them playing like that tomorrow so the bet has to be…

Middlesbrough to win @ 1.80 – General 

Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest 21st August 2012

In my pre-season review I stated that I didn't rate Forest and I'd be taking them on early in the season. From what I read about them after Saturdays match at home to Bristol City I haven't changed my mind. In contrast to that I didn't really know what to make of Huddersfield, but after watching them on Friday night at Cardiff I feel they could have a good season. I see no reason why they cannot finish above Forest at the end of the season. Player for player there doesn't seem to be much between the two sides, but Huddersfield have more going forward.

Huddersfield's main concern coming into this match is that Jordan Rhodes is rated 50/50. He's their main source of goals and they probably would have beaten Cardiff if he was playing on Friday. The hosts also don't have a great record when these two sides meet, with 1 win in the last 7.

I fancy Huddersfield to score at least 1 which means Forest will need 2 for this bet to lose. After their two games so far this season, Fleetwood and Bristol City, I cannot see that happening.

Lay Nottingham Forest up to 3.00 - Betfair 

109743/1 Handicap Accumulator

QPR +37 points 15/1

Birmingham +12 points 18/1

Notts Co +11 points 18/1

Southend +10 points 18/1

Total 109743/1 4-fold Bet 365 (4 places each-way)

**Check maximum pay-out terms**

The Championship 2012 - 2013

I’m not a massive fan of ante-post betting as it ties up money that can be used for other things and ultimately make more from it in the 9 months of the season. I do however like to have a few accumulators and here are my thoughts on this seasons Championship. These selection will go into my accumulators which I will post up on Friday. 

Handicap Market

There were a few teams I liked for this including Hull and Millwall, but I’ve decided to go with BIRMINGHAM. A lot has been made about their financial issue and how they are going to lose their ‘big’ players.  They’ve lost Ben Foster and Jordan Mutch.

I don’t see them two players as much of a loss, they have an adequate replacement in goal with Jack Butland. In defence they still have Curtis Davies, Stephen Carr and Steve Caldwell. However it’s what they have going forward, which means Jordan Mutch won’t be a loss. They have Chris Burke, Darren Ambrose, Hayden Mullins in midfield. These players are experienced and will help out the younger players in Nathan Redmond and Ravel Morrison. I think most would agree that their midfield has the potential to be the strongest in the league.

You can then add to that midfield forwards with the quality of Marlon King and Peter Lovenkrands. The two of them have goals in them and with Nikola Zigic coming off the bench when long balls are being lumped into the box makes attractive strike force in this league.

They ended last season with a 9 game unbeaten run in the league and if they can pick up where they left off there is no reason why they won’t make the play-offs again. With Bet 365’s offer of +12 points, ¼ odds each way, paying 4 places this looks a value bet to me priced up at 18/1.

Relegation Market

I’m concentrating on two sides for this, the first is BARNSLEY. They finished last season on a terrible run of 1 win in 15 games. Their squad look weaker with the departures of Jacob Butterfield and Andy Gray. The arrival of Mido, doesn’t really excite as he has 13 club goals in 5 years. Their only win on the final 3^rd of the season was against my other selection, PETERBOROUGH. I fancied them to go down last year and they survived but this year they’ve lost a key part of their side in Joe Lewis. If you’re a side that play attacking football then you need a decent keeper. They haven’t signed players with experience at this level and I don’t think they’ll be able to survive again.

It is possible to Dutch both to go down. This will means that if either go down you’ll get paid out at 2/5 if 1 goes down, which seem very likely as I can’t see 3 teams worse than both of them.

Most Overrated

There’s always a couple in this league every season who get a bit of cash or are a big name and everyone thinks that they’ll be up their challenging. It happened with Leicester last season, they spent £5million on a right-back and were never in contention. Money has to be spent wisely in this league, believe me I support a side who signed Ade Akinbiyi for over £2million, then made the same mistake again by signing Shefki Kuqi. Administration eventually followed.

The prize for most overrated this season was a choice between Leeds and Nottingham Forest. But FOREST take it due them being absolutely awful last season. They’ve now got some money and got a lower league quality manager, Sean O’Driscoll, in charge. I also don’t think they have improved their squad, when you look at the players they have lost. I can’t see why they are 9/2 to go up. I will be taking them on early in the season whilst they are an artificially short price.

Player to Watch

From a betting point of view there is one player I am interested in, Jonathan Williams. When he plays Crystal Palace look like they have the ability to score goals. In the early part of last season he got 6 assist, he then broke his leg whilst on International duty with Wales U21s. Palace have never lost when Williams has played. He’s trying to get back to full fitness but is struggling; picking up little niggles here and there.

I would not advise any bets on Palace if he’s not in the starting 11 until they prove they can score goals without him. That could be a long time coming as the midfield creativity is no existant, with the exception of Zaha, who would be better up front.

I’ve seen a lot of youngsters over the years at Selhurst including Salako, Moses, Zaha and Bostock, but Williams is better than any of them. He is like an Iniesta he just seems to be able to spot a pass and has great awareness of what's going on around him.

Goodwood 2:35 Wed 1st August

Just a brief write up OLYMPIC GLORY has course and distance form, his only defeat from three starts was at Royal Ascot when he was behind the very impressive Dawn Approach (Favourite for next years 2000 Guineas). On offical ratings the extra weight shouldn't cause him to many issues.

Hannon and Hughes normally have a few decent 2 year old winners at this meeting so at 3/1 I see that as the value. I'm not getting heavily involved but I missed out on 2 I liked yesterday by watching the Olympics and losing track of time, so I don't want to make the same mistake again.

Olympic Glory to win the 2:35 Goodwood