Final day of Royal Ascot is here and it's been a frustrating meeting. I'm still in profit (just) but yesterday carried on from Thursday. I backed Sandiva at 11/4 she was backed into 7/4 and finished 2nd. Big Break started 9/2 after I had backed her at 13/2 but found nothing off the bridle. Hoping that I can land one winner today to end the meeting on a high, before Glorious Goodwood next month.
Hardwicke Stakes - 15:05
Ektihamm won over course and distance last time out, beating Thomas Chippendale who himself won at The Royal Meeting last year, beating Noble Mission. The previous race to that was at Sandown where Ektihamm was a neck third to Thomas Chippindale. The winner of that race was Al Kazeem, who has gone on to show his class when winning here on Wednesday. Ektihamm looks to be on an upwards curve and today looks to be a day for siding with him.
Back Ektihamm at 11/4 - 888Sports
Diamond Jubilee Stakes - 15:30
There are form lines all over the place in this race with most of the horses beating each other at some point. Due to this I have whittled it down to Maarek and Society Rock. The reason I have got my short-list down to this two is because the both have previous course and distance wins and have won this season.
My pick however will be Maarek. He won the Sprint back on Champions Day last year and at 22/1 looks a bit of value to me.
Back Maarek at 22/1 - Stan James
Saturday, 22 June 2013
Thursday, 20 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day 4
Day 3 was probably the most frustrating days racing I can remember. It started when I woke up and realised there had been no rain. I then went on twitter and gave bullish comment about No Nay Never who was trading at 7.60. However I didn't take my advice and stuck with Coach House in the hope of the rain coming. No Nay Never won and Coach House came 2nd. In the next race I fancied Riposte but didn't back it due to the predicted weather and strong opposition, two of the main rivals pulled out and she went on to win at 9/2.
Rite of Passage was my selection in The Gold Cup but was pulled out on account of the ground. Estimate was my other fancy in that race but I left her unbacked as I don't like to back something on account my fancy being pulled out. She won at 6/1. In the next I was on Wentworth at 5/1 and he was flying but couldn't reel in the front runners on the quick ground, eventually finishing 4th (I wasn't on each way).
Then to compound my misery I backed Van Der Neer to win and not each way at 13/1. He travelled well through the race and looked winner when hitting the front, however he tired in the final 100 yards to finish 3rd. That's enough moaning anyway, I'm still in profit and I'm confident of finding a winner on 'Essex Day'.
The Albany - 14:30
The form line of this race ties in nicely with Wednesdays Queen Mary, which was won by the impressive Rizeena. In that race a filly called Fig Roll was 4th. On the 3rd of June Fig roll was beaten by Sandiva and that looks to be the smartest form line in this race. I was expecting the price to be nearer 9/4 so I'll take the 11/4.
Back Sandiva at 11/4 - General
Coronation Stakes - 15:45
Big Break is a horse that I have been waiting to cross The Irish Sea for this season. I fancied her for The Guineas and The Oaks, but she had a set back so didn't make the trip. She had her seasonal reappearance in the Irish 1000 where she didn't have the run of the race, she had to come wide, was knocked about but still looked the winner with half a furlong to go. She'll come on the run and Weld has sent her over because he knows she is class. I believe that she'll show that she is the best 3 year old filly out there and win this comfortably.
Back Big Break at 7.6 - Betfair
***I will also be getting on the double for the above two at 27/1 with Totesport/Betfred***
Buckingham Palace Stakes - 17:35
Not a race to be getting heavily involved in but there are a couple I like at each-way prices. Redvers and Smarty Socks tick all the boxes I like. They've won over course and distance and have won recently. It's only a race for small stakes at the prices.
Back Redvers at 20/1 each-way - Totesport/Betfred
Back Smarty Socks win at 29 - Betfair
Back Smarty Socks place at 6 - Betfair
Back Smarty Socks place at 6 - Betfair
Wednesday, 19 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day 3
After Dawn Approach rescued day one for me, day two proved to be a lot less stressful and brought some well earned profits. Al Kazeem showed his class to win and The Fugue showed her ability on a firm surface to grab some place money. She'll be one to keep an eye on as she'll defiantly come on for the run. What that race says about last years three year old form is simple - it's worthless.
Rizeena looks to be a very smart two year old and she won nicely for me at 7/1, she has bags of pace and looks like she'll stay further. If she trains on she will be a massive player in next years 1000 Guineas.
Thursday doesn't look to be an easy card especially with the prediction of rain. However I have found four bets that I like at various prices. One winner will give me a profit but whatever happens I'll still be up for the week as it's a smaller stakes day for me.
Norfolk Stakes - 14:30
The O'Brien's have won the first race on both days now and they should be able to keep that going with the classy Coach House. If the expected rain comes and gets into the ground we may see a repeat of his Tipperary ride where he made all on soft ground and won by six and a half lengths.
There doesn't seem to be too much else in the race that have shown much. Wesley Ward has brought second favourite No Nay Never over from the USA but any rain that gets into the ground will surely harm his chances based on his breeding and that he has only ever ran on polytrack which was described as fast.
Back Coach House at 3/1 - General
Gold Cup - 15:45
One of my betting rules is that any Dermot Weld horse that is sent over has to be seriously considered. My faith in this approach was rewarded on Champions Day last year when Sapphire won at 3/1. Also on that card was former Gold Cup winner, Rite of Passage who won at 8/1.
Right of Passage has been here and won this race before back in 2010 when he won it at 20/1. He acts on any ground and looks to have less question marks about him than many of his rivals.
Back Rite of Passage at 8.40 - Betfair
Britannia Stakes - 16:25
I backed Wentworth on his debut at Goodwood last year, that day he came 6th and cost me a considerable sum. However he atoned for that defeat by winning his next two starts. He made his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood last month, but over six furlongs. I was surprised to see him dropped back in trip and didn't back him that day.
I'm hoping that he does what he done last season though and will comes on for run, especially as he's been stepped backup to a mile. We don't know how he'll act on the ground if the predicted rain gets in but he's potentially well handicapped so if he comes on like he did last year he'll go close.
Back Wentworth at 5/1 - 888Sport
Tercentenary Stakes - 17:00
This years 2000 Guineas form ties in nicely with this race, even though it's over an extra two furlongs. On Guineas day I backed Van Der Neer win and place, he stayed on for 3rd beating Toronado. Dawn Approach and Toronado went head to head on Tuesday in which they both showed their class. However over an extra two furlongs Van Der Neer would be right up with them and would probably of beaten them.
He'll love this step-up in trip and I believe that his Guineas run shows that he is a classy animal.
Back Van Der Neer at 14 (13/1) - Betfair
Rizeena looks to be a very smart two year old and she won nicely for me at 7/1, she has bags of pace and looks like she'll stay further. If she trains on she will be a massive player in next years 1000 Guineas.
Thursday doesn't look to be an easy card especially with the prediction of rain. However I have found four bets that I like at various prices. One winner will give me a profit but whatever happens I'll still be up for the week as it's a smaller stakes day for me.
Norfolk Stakes - 14:30
The O'Brien's have won the first race on both days now and they should be able to keep that going with the classy Coach House. If the expected rain comes and gets into the ground we may see a repeat of his Tipperary ride where he made all on soft ground and won by six and a half lengths.
There doesn't seem to be too much else in the race that have shown much. Wesley Ward has brought second favourite No Nay Never over from the USA but any rain that gets into the ground will surely harm his chances based on his breeding and that he has only ever ran on polytrack which was described as fast.
Back Coach House at 3/1 - General
Gold Cup - 15:45
One of my betting rules is that any Dermot Weld horse that is sent over has to be seriously considered. My faith in this approach was rewarded on Champions Day last year when Sapphire won at 3/1. Also on that card was former Gold Cup winner, Rite of Passage who won at 8/1.
Right of Passage has been here and won this race before back in 2010 when he won it at 20/1. He acts on any ground and looks to have less question marks about him than many of his rivals.
Back Rite of Passage at 8.40 - Betfair
Britannia Stakes - 16:25
I backed Wentworth on his debut at Goodwood last year, that day he came 6th and cost me a considerable sum. However he atoned for that defeat by winning his next two starts. He made his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood last month, but over six furlongs. I was surprised to see him dropped back in trip and didn't back him that day.
I'm hoping that he does what he done last season though and will comes on for run, especially as he's been stepped backup to a mile. We don't know how he'll act on the ground if the predicted rain gets in but he's potentially well handicapped so if he comes on like he did last year he'll go close.
Back Wentworth at 5/1 - 888Sport
Tercentenary Stakes - 17:00
This years 2000 Guineas form ties in nicely with this race, even though it's over an extra two furlongs. On Guineas day I backed Van Der Neer win and place, he stayed on for 3rd beating Toronado. Dawn Approach and Toronado went head to head on Tuesday in which they both showed their class. However over an extra two furlongs Van Der Neer would be right up with them and would probably of beaten them.
He'll love this step-up in trip and I believe that his Guineas run shows that he is a classy animal.
Back Van Der Neer at 14 (13/1) - Betfair
Royal Ascot Day 2
Yesterday didn't start to well with my Ante-Post money going out the window after races one and the Shea Shea getting beaten after looking the winner in race two. However Dawn Approach managed to make me a profit on bets placed yesterday.
Today looks to be a tough day but at the prices one winner will do for me.
Prince of Wales's Stake - 15:45
Camelot has won a Guineas and The Derby, however the form of those races hasn't really worked out too well. He seem to be a workman like horse and not the superstar that people were saying last year. In his last run he was beaten by Al Kazeem and I can't see any reason for that form to be reversed. The Fugue is a horse I like but she needs genuinely quick ground and to me looks to be one that will improve later in the season, however I can see her running into a place.
Back Al Kazeem at 5/2 - General
Royal Hunt Cup - 16:25
Directorship has won over the course and distance here and is in excellent form with two wins from two this season. Those are the sort of things I like to see when I'm backing a horse so at the prices he's worth an each-way play.
Back Directorship at 33/1 each-way - Bet365
Queen Mary - 17:00
Like Directorship in the 16:25 Rizeena ticks the same boxes. I really like the way she stayed on when she beat odds on favourite Oriel here back in May. She then went to Sandown where she made all and won easily. A repeat of either of those performances today and she'll go close.
Back Rizeena at 7/1 - Boylewsports
Today looks to be a tough day but at the prices one winner will do for me.
Prince of Wales's Stake - 15:45
Camelot has won a Guineas and The Derby, however the form of those races hasn't really worked out too well. He seem to be a workman like horse and not the superstar that people were saying last year. In his last run he was beaten by Al Kazeem and I can't see any reason for that form to be reversed. The Fugue is a horse I like but she needs genuinely quick ground and to me looks to be one that will improve later in the season, however I can see her running into a place.
Back Al Kazeem at 5/2 - General
Royal Hunt Cup - 16:25
Directorship has won over the course and distance here and is in excellent form with two wins from two this season. Those are the sort of things I like to see when I'm backing a horse so at the prices he's worth an each-way play.
Back Directorship at 33/1 each-way - Bet365
Queen Mary - 17:00
Like Directorship in the 16:25 Rizeena ticks the same boxes. I really like the way she stayed on when she beat odds on favourite Oriel here back in May. She then went to Sandown where she made all and won easily. A repeat of either of those performances today and she'll go close.
Back Rizeena at 7/1 - Boylewsports
Sunday, 16 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day 1
I've been off for a while and only been posting on Twitter due to there not being that much going on betting wise. However it now comes to my 2nd favourite race meeting of the year. The Tuesday of Royal Ascot is always a day I look forward to, as it's generally profitable and the racing is top class.
Anyone that has been following me on twitter would have seen some of the below posts in recent months;
Anyone that has been following me on twitter would have seen some of the below posts in recent months;
"@AscotInsider: South African-trained King's Stand favourite Shea Shea has arrived in Newmarket." #BANKER
4 weeks to Royal Ascot and the odds on Animal Kingdom have started to shorten. #BestHorseInTraining
So Shea Shea wins The Kings Stand at Royal Ascot then
@Scowmeadow good shout mate, get half the profits on the Animal Kingdom Shea Shea double
Just had a little more on the Animal Kingdom/Shea Shea double at 13/1 #RoyalAscot
I think it's fair to say which camps I will be in on Tuesday, I'm on the Animal Kingdom & Shea Shea double at an average of around 15/1 as well as a few Animal Kingdom singles at 11/4 and upwards. My one regret is not taking more of my own advice when I sent a friend of mine an email with these highlighted horses in it, as I would be sitting on a nice ticket at 134/1.
That's enough about the Ante-Post positions now as those prices are long gone. We now need to make some money throughout this week and there are some excellent races to look forward to.
This is Royal Ascot so there'll be big prices around on the morning and may be best to wait until then
This is Royal Ascot so there'll be big prices around on the morning and may be best to wait until then
The Queen Anne - 14:30
As you can see from the above, I'm on Animal Kingdom and I've seen nothing to change my mind. This horse has won a Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup. He probably would of won The Breeders' Cup Mile too, if he hadn't found trouble in running.
The interesting thing to take from that race at Santa Anita is the form line with Excelebration. Anyone who was following me last year would remember me saying that Frankel was the best miler of a generation, but Excelebration was easily 2nd best over the last two years. This thinking was rewarded when I backed him to come 2nd to Frankel in this race last year and also to win the mile race on Champions day. Animal Kingdom finished two lengths ahead of him at the Breeders' Cup so surely that is the best piece of form in the race.
If Animal Kingdom runs to form he should be winning this race by about 5 lengths. He has the stand side rail for assistance and I really can't see how a horse who has only finished outside the top two once in eleven races, cannot win, unless he under performs. In reality he should be a 4/6 shot max, so there is some mileage in the current 8/11 on offer.
I'm not getting involved again as I'm already on, but if I wasn't I'd be happy get on again or have him as part of my multiples.
Back Animal Kingdom at 8/11 - General
Kings Stand Stakes - 15:05
I'm not a massive fan of European sprinters, I try to support them but find it difficult as they're not that good. Last year I backed Japanese raider Little Bridge in this and he won at 12/1. This year we have a South African sprinter who broke the track record at Meydan on March 9th then broke his own record on March 30th.
Shea Shea is a class sprinter who has won 10 from 19 races with two second places and 3 third places. On official ratings, his only rivals are Reckless Abandon and Shamexpress. Shea Shea likes to leave his challenge late with a strong burst of speed; as long as the hill doesn't trouble him too much he should be able to pick off the rivals around. Reckless Abandon will likely be raced up with the pace however with Sole Power, Spirit Quartz and Swiss Spirit also drawn in the teens, I think it's likely that they will hamper each other by trying too hard to cover the others moves instead of running their races.
Due to me already having this horse in a number of doubles with Animal Kingdom, I won't be backing it again unless Animal Kingdom is beaten.
Back Shea Shea at 2/1 - General
St James Palace - 15:45
If Dawn Approach had ran in The Derby he'd be odds on for this race. He got knocked in the stalls at Epsom and never settled, however he's still unbeaten over a mile. I was at Ascot last year when he won the Coventry and immediately turned to my mate and said "Guineas winner". He went on to win the Guineas last month by 5 lengths. On that piece of form his only challenger is Magician. Toronado was put in his place at Newmarket and, to me, doesn't look like he has enough speed to see off the top two in the market.
The way I'm looking at this race is simple. What price would Dawn Approach be if he hadn't of ran in The Derby? My answer to that is he'd be odds on, so I'll be taking the odds against.
Back Dawn Approach at 11/8 - Bet Victor
** I would also advise having a treble on the above three at almost 11/1 with Bet Victor**
Coventry Stakes - 16:25
Hannon and Hughes have a ridiculously good two year old record. Over the last five years Richard Hannon has an 18% strike rate with two-year olds;
2807 Runners
510 Winners
18% Strike Rate
419 2nds
308 3rds
310 4ths
Richard Hughes record is even better;
1078 Rides
281 Winners
26% Strike Rate
192 2nds
107 3rds
97 4ths
On derby day I backed Thunder Strike on this basis, and would be backing him if Hughes had chosen to be the jockey. Richard Hughes has, however, chosen to go for Championship so that's my selection here.
Championship made his racecourse debut last month and looks like he'll come on for the run. He won that Newbury race despite starting slowly and not finding a clear run. With the record of this trainer/jockey combo and the way he quickened last time out, he has to be the bet in this race.
Back Championship at 11/2 - Betfred/Totesport
**I will also be backing all four of my selections at just under 76/1 with Betfred/Totesport**
Saturday, 4 May 2013
The Championship - 4th May
Last day of the season and I'm hoping that this time next week I'll be waking up with a hangover after Palace have beaten Brighton in the play-offs. I'm going to keep it simple today as there's no need to go on, everybody knows what is needed to be know about these sides.
Hull v Cardiff
Hull are too short here, just because they need to win doesn't mean they will. They chocked last weekend and are more than capable of doing it again. I'm also sure Malky Mackay will want to give something back to Watford, a club he previously played for and managed.
Lay Hull at 2.00 - Betfair
Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
Both sides have to win so that takes the 'they must win so will win thinking out of the equation'. These sides are of equal ability, next to each other in the league and are on equal runs of from, so I'd have this priced at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75.
Lay Leicester City at 3.20 - Betfair
Huddersfield v Barnsley
A bit like the above game both teams need a win but the away side are priced short. Huddersfield have been above Barnsley all season and are currently in better form than them. They have proven goal scorers in their side so I don't see why Barnsley are any shorter than 3.75.
Lay Barnsley at 3.40 - Betfair
Treble
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Charlton
Pays 6.70 at BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
Last one of the season pays over 39,000/1 with BetVictor
Hull v Cardiff
Hull are too short here, just because they need to win doesn't mean they will. They chocked last weekend and are more than capable of doing it again. I'm also sure Malky Mackay will want to give something back to Watford, a club he previously played for and managed.
Lay Hull at 2.00 - Betfair
Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
Both sides have to win so that takes the 'they must win so will win thinking out of the equation'. These sides are of equal ability, next to each other in the league and are on equal runs of from, so I'd have this priced at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75.
Lay Leicester City at 3.20 - Betfair
Huddersfield v Barnsley
A bit like the above game both teams need a win but the away side are priced short. Huddersfield have been above Barnsley all season and are currently in better form than them. They have proven goal scorers in their side so I don't see why Barnsley are any shorter than 3.75.
Lay Barnsley at 3.40 - Betfair
Treble
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Charlton
Pays 6.70 at BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
Last one of the season pays over 39,000/1 with BetVictor
Friday, 3 May 2013
Newmarket 4th May
After a successful jumps season we get to the first classic of the flat season. Looking through the card it looks to be one to take on a couple of the shorter priced with some double figure selections. At this stage of the season though I would only advise small stakes. My bets are win only but if security is more your thing then they have solid each-way claims.
Newmarket 2:35
Tangerine Trees is one of the horse that is on my follow list for the season. Things didn't go for him last year but he is a class horse. His Abbaye win in 2011 is in my opinion the strong form, that day he had Sole Power, Prohibit and Wizz Kidd all in behind. I have the belief that this horse can run right up to the potential it showed back then and if he does he'll be a player in these sprints. He's already a course and distance winner, something that none of the others are and he was impressive when staying on last time out to win up at Musselburgh.
Back Tangerine Trees at 17.0 - Coral
Newmarket 3:50
This was my tweet from Thursday night;
Cherry Analyst @CherryAnalysts
Newmarket 2:35
Tangerine Trees is one of the horse that is on my follow list for the season. Things didn't go for him last year but he is a class horse. His Abbaye win in 2011 is in my opinion the strong form, that day he had Sole Power, Prohibit and Wizz Kidd all in behind. I have the belief that this horse can run right up to the potential it showed back then and if he does he'll be a player in these sprints. He's already a course and distance winner, something that none of the others are and he was impressive when staying on last time out to win up at Musselburgh.
Back Tangerine Trees at 17.0 - Coral
Newmarket 3:50
This was my tweet from Thursday night;
Cherry Analyst
Started nibbling at the Van Der Neer prices (30/1+) for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday. Write up not done yet but I know he'll be my selection
I managed to get my money on at average odds of 34.4 however I still consider him value at the current 25.0. The front two in the market have obvious claims but I can see Toronado burning himself out, he won the Craven in impressive style but Havana Gold hasn't even taken up his entry in this race and neither has Dundonnell, who look to be more of a sprinter.
Van Der Neer is my selection at the prices, he may look like the 2nd string but William Buick is no second string jockey, he is more than capable of winning the big races. Last time out this horse had all sorts of trouble in-running. He may struggle with the pace of this race but if the front runners don't see it out he'll be staying on, he actually looks a serious Derby contender based on the form of his only defeat to date. That defeat cam against Kingsbarns, who is currently one of The Derby favourites.
I'm taking a punt on this one as I would have him price at 17.0 max.
Back Van Der Neer at 25.0 - Betfair
Thursday, 25 April 2013
The Championship - 26th & 27th April
It's that time of year when everyone says "they need to win, so they will win..." This normally creates some good betting opportunities as teams don't win simply because they 'need' to. With that in mind I'm laying four who need to win for various reasons this weekend and keeping the reasoning simple.
Leicester City v Watford
Leicester aren't that good, they're defiantly not good enough to be 2.0x in this match. They have one win in 11 going back to the 2nd March! Watford have been inconsistent of late but they are still in better from than The Foxes. Leicester should be a minimum of 2.3x here so they have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.06 - Betfair
Blackburn Rovers v Crystal Palace
I want Palace to win this but I just don't think they will. They are looking scared at the moment and seriously lacking in confidence. For them to be given a 37% chance of winning this is just ridiculous. Blackburn aren't a great side but they have won 3 of their last 6, compared to a Palace side who haven't won in 7 and 2 away win since November. I would have Palace priced around the 3.10 mark minimum.
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.64 - Betfair
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town
This game is priced up on the belief that Bristol City just don't care and Huddersfield 'have' to win. That may be true but do they really have a 40% chance of winning this? My answer is no so I'm taking them on.
Lay Huddersfield Town at 2.50 - Betfair
Leeds United v Brighton
Brighton have won 3 of their last 10, admittedly they were impressive last weekend but does that really give them a 42.74% chance of winning this? Yes, Leeds may have nothing to play for but they've won 2 from 3 under Brian McDermott and I'm sure he or the Elland Road crowd will not be happy if they roll over for Brighton.
Lay Brighton at 2.34 - Betfair
*Bet365 are offering 7.67 on all of those lays coming in using their Double Chance coupon
#ToiletRollAcca
Running out of time to land the life changing bet but I'll keep going. This weekend BetVictor are offering over 580,000/1
Watford
Blackburn
Cardiff
Birmingham
Derby
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Leeds
Peterborough
Millwall v Forest - Draw
Barnsley v Hull - Draw
Bristol City v Huddersfield - Draw
Leicester City v Watford
Leicester aren't that good, they're defiantly not good enough to be 2.0x in this match. They have one win in 11 going back to the 2nd March! Watford have been inconsistent of late but they are still in better from than The Foxes. Leicester should be a minimum of 2.3x here so they have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester City at 2.06 - Betfair
Blackburn Rovers v Crystal Palace
I want Palace to win this but I just don't think they will. They are looking scared at the moment and seriously lacking in confidence. For them to be given a 37% chance of winning this is just ridiculous. Blackburn aren't a great side but they have won 3 of their last 6, compared to a Palace side who haven't won in 7 and 2 away win since November. I would have Palace priced around the 3.10 mark minimum.
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.64 - Betfair
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town
This game is priced up on the belief that Bristol City just don't care and Huddersfield 'have' to win. That may be true but do they really have a 40% chance of winning this? My answer is no so I'm taking them on.
Lay Huddersfield Town at 2.50 - Betfair
Leeds United v Brighton
Brighton have won 3 of their last 10, admittedly they were impressive last weekend but does that really give them a 42.74% chance of winning this? Yes, Leeds may have nothing to play for but they've won 2 from 3 under Brian McDermott and I'm sure he or the Elland Road crowd will not be happy if they roll over for Brighton.
Lay Brighton at 2.34 - Betfair
*Bet365 are offering 7.67 on all of those lays coming in using their Double Chance coupon
#ToiletRollAcca
Running out of time to land the life changing bet but I'll keep going. This weekend BetVictor are offering over 580,000/1
Watford
Blackburn
Cardiff
Birmingham
Derby
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Leeds
Peterborough
Millwall v Forest - Draw
Barnsley v Hull - Draw
Bristol City v Huddersfield - Draw
Saturday, 20 April 2013
The Championship - 20th April
This year just isn't going to plan in the football, my Championship bank is currently sitting at -33.45% after ending 2012 at +128.75.
I'm hoping that all my luck hasn't been used up on the horses after successful Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, but winners are needed quickly, three winning weekends now is the order and that's the plan.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been awful of late, they don't even look like scoring, however Leicester have been just as bad. Palace have made me a lot of money this season when backing them at home at odds against. The come into this game priced up as underdogs and I just can't be having that.
It's do or die really, a draw is probably a better result for Palace than Leicester, but a defeat for Palace and I think they'll miss out on the play-offs. If they win then I think they make them. This is going to come down to the first goal and with the leagues top scorer plus a £15million winger Palace should always be dangerous. Whoever gets it will go on to win the game in my opinion.
Palace have been better than Leicester for the majority of the season and they haven't become a bad side, they just seem to have no confidence since Brighton thrashed them. I have this game priced up at H-2.30 D-3.35 A-3.75. At the prices Palace are the value and have to be backed.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.82 - Betfair
#ToiletRollAcca
Pays over 170,00/1 with Bet365
Huddersfield
Brighton
Watford
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Draw - Burnley v Cardiff
Draw - Sheff. Wed v Ipswich
Draw - Birmingham v Leeds
Draw - Derby v Peterborough
Draw - Forest v Barnsley
I'm hoping that all my luck hasn't been used up on the horses after successful Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, but winners are needed quickly, three winning weekends now is the order and that's the plan.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been awful of late, they don't even look like scoring, however Leicester have been just as bad. Palace have made me a lot of money this season when backing them at home at odds against. The come into this game priced up as underdogs and I just can't be having that.
It's do or die really, a draw is probably a better result for Palace than Leicester, but a defeat for Palace and I think they'll miss out on the play-offs. If they win then I think they make them. This is going to come down to the first goal and with the leagues top scorer plus a £15million winger Palace should always be dangerous. Whoever gets it will go on to win the game in my opinion.
Palace have been better than Leicester for the majority of the season and they haven't become a bad side, they just seem to have no confidence since Brighton thrashed them. I have this game priced up at H-2.30 D-3.35 A-3.75. At the prices Palace are the value and have to be backed.
Back Crystal Palace at 2.82 - Betfair
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Pays over 170,00/1 with Bet365
Huddersfield
Brighton
Watford
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Draw - Burnley v Cardiff
Draw - Sheff. Wed v Ipswich
Draw - Birmingham v Leeds
Draw - Derby v Peterborough
Draw - Forest v Barnsley
Friday, 12 April 2013
The Championship - 12th & 13th April
2013 has been a terrible year for football so far for the highs of +128% on New Years Eve I now find myself having to dip into my initial bank for the 1st time since that start of the season after dropping into the -%. So some winner are need to get back on track and beat the banks.
Leicester City v Birmingham City
When Birmingham cam to Palace the home side were awful. Birmingham ran out 4-0 winners that day. For that game Palace were priced at 1.83 and it's for that reason I have to place this bet. Palace are in better for than Leicester, just, with Leicester having no wins in eight. They haven't kept a clean sheet in eight and the goals have started to dry up, they haven't scored more than one in their last eight either.
Palace are also higher up the league table and have a better home record. Despite the above two points Leicester are priced shorter than Palace were. I can't see the reason for that, other than the belief that teams can buy their way out of this league.
Birmingham are a good side who struggled to adapt to this league, they have some excellent players and are now starting to show a bit of what they are capable of. With everything considered Leicester have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester at 1.74 - Betfair
Wolves v Huddersfield
Two sides who sit side by side in the league on the same amount of points is always games that I like to look at. When I look at these I normal start with the prices at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75 and take it from there. Both these sides are probably better than their league position suggests however the form table shows that Wolves are moving in the direction they should be. Four wins in the last six has given them hope of avoiding the drop and with the players they have they should so it, however they must win on Saturday.
I the season was to start again on Saturday I would rank these two sides a long way apart, I think Wolves are easily top eight quality and would have Huddersfield in around 15th position. Therefore If I was going to price it up then I would have Wolves nearer the 2.00 mark. They haven't shown that they are worse than Huddersfield and their recent form suggests that that are better. therefore I think it's worth backing them to continue their improvement.
Back Wolves at 2.25 - BetVictor
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This weekend accumulator pays over 187,000/1 with Bet365
Leicester City v Birmingham City
When Birmingham cam to Palace the home side were awful. Birmingham ran out 4-0 winners that day. For that game Palace were priced at 1.83 and it's for that reason I have to place this bet. Palace are in better for than Leicester, just, with Leicester having no wins in eight. They haven't kept a clean sheet in eight and the goals have started to dry up, they haven't scored more than one in their last eight either.
Palace are also higher up the league table and have a better home record. Despite the above two points Leicester are priced shorter than Palace were. I can't see the reason for that, other than the belief that teams can buy their way out of this league.
Birmingham are a good side who struggled to adapt to this league, they have some excellent players and are now starting to show a bit of what they are capable of. With everything considered Leicester have to be taken on.
Lay Leicester at 1.74 - Betfair
Wolves v Huddersfield
Two sides who sit side by side in the league on the same amount of points is always games that I like to look at. When I look at these I normal start with the prices at H-2.25 D-3.50 A-3.75 and take it from there. Both these sides are probably better than their league position suggests however the form table shows that Wolves are moving in the direction they should be. Four wins in the last six has given them hope of avoiding the drop and with the players they have they should so it, however they must win on Saturday.
I the season was to start again on Saturday I would rank these two sides a long way apart, I think Wolves are easily top eight quality and would have Huddersfield in around 15th position. Therefore If I was going to price it up then I would have Wolves nearer the 2.00 mark. They haven't shown that they are worse than Huddersfield and their recent form suggests that that are better. therefore I think it's worth backing them to continue their improvement.
Back Wolves at 2.25 - BetVictor
#ToiletRollAcca
This weekend accumulator pays over 187,000/1 with Bet365
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